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October 30, 2008
Huge Democrat Turnout Advantage In Florida
Kim Priestap reports on early voting in Florida. Democrats seem to have a big advantage in turnout. Democrats are beaming that their party is outperforming the Republicans in early voting, releasing numbers Wednesday that show registrants of their party ahead 54 percent to 30 percent among the 1.4 million voters who have gone to the polls early.I wonder if the PUMA vote is having an effect? I looked into that at The PUMA Question. My conclusion? The PUMAs are being very underrated. OK. That is Florida which is looking pretty good right now. What about Maine and New Hampshire? Tonight's been a busy night, in that we've talked to a half dozen people on three times as many subjects - including Team Hillary members in New Hampshire and Maine, who we know well from the primaries.Interesting. It seems that it is the Shrinking Media™ that is the most enthusiastic for Obama and the rest of America not so much. It also looks like Joe The Plumber has had a big effect in Maine. And as Maine goes so goes the nation. (2) We asked why people in these states are not voting for Obama and were told that in Maine, especially, a lot of it has to do with Joe the Plumber and redistributing the wealth. Much of Maine makes its living off the sea: fishermen pull in $200,000 or more a year in family businesses. Joe Biden's slip that Obama really intends to define "wealthy" as $150,000 a year or above sent terror through Maine's fishing community and other small business industries. We were told tonight that Maine and New Hampshire have more small family businesses that would be affected by Obama's redistribution of wealth than we could imagine. Joe the Plumber resonated with these people -- especially the fishermen.And guess what? The Republicans have the wife of a fisherman on the ticket. Word is that Todd Palin is going to Maine to gather some votes. I think he just might get some. It also looks like caucus fraud is also playing a part. The other interesting tidbit that came out of the conversation tonight was that of the Hillary Clinton convention delegates who are openly supporting John McCain, the largest number of these people come from states that held caucuses.It seems like Obama had a good strategy for winning the nomination (fraud and intimidation), but it is not playing well in the general election. So in terms of strategy Obama did well. In terms of grand strategy he is a failure. We have historical evidence of just such mistakes in warfare. The Austrian Corporal made the same mistake. Easy victories were not solidified by making friends with the populations of his new conquests. It turned out badly for him. Obama did not cement his relationship with those he defeated by offering them a large consolation prize (Hillary as VP) to make up for all the rubbed raw emotions the caucuses created. When he picked Joe Biden he made the hill he had to climb much steeper. And then along comes Joe the Plumber in the last two weeks of the campaign to put a large hole in his campaign below the water line. And Obama keeps enlarging that hole by lowering the threshold for those who will see tax increases. First $250,000, then $200,000 and finally (so far) $150,000. Worrying people the most I believe is not the actual number, but the fact that it keeps going lower. Where will it stop? I think it will stop with a huge Obama loss on the night of 4 Nov. Do we have any other anecdotes and fuzzy data points? Yes we do. The results so far in Nevada show that the Obama/pollsters turn out model is not near what has been hoped/projected (change we can believe in - heh). Analysts have predicted that new voters, young voters and Hispanic voters will turn out in record numbers in this election. But as Nevadans continue to flock to the polls, turnout among those three groups is lagging, at least in the early going.Hope springs eternal in the Democrat camp. No surprise there. It is part of their theme song this year. "I would have expected those numbers to be a little higher," Damore said. "At the same time, the people who come out for early voting may tend to be the tried and true."Expects and happens are two different things though. One point I have brought up before is that there is huge antipathy in the Hispanic community for the Black community. It boils down to this: Hispanics see Blacks living on the dole while they toil away at jobs like gardening and construction to improve themselves. No one likes free riders. People who are not pulling their weight. And for good or ill that is the Hispanic community's impression of the Black community they come in contact with. So let me do a short analysis of why I think Obama will lose. 1. Caucus fraud rubbed Democrat voters the wrong way. But it is not over until it is over. Don't let any analysis - positive or negative - keep you from doing what must be done. And what is that you ask? Well I'll tell you. Again. Vote. Vote like your life and your country depended on it. It may. If we get a very strongly Democrat legislature it is critical that McCain/Palin have all the support we can show to keep the legislature in check. So even if you live in a state that is a foregone conclusion one way or another, your show of support will matter come 20 January 2009. Vote. Cross Posted at Power and Control posted by Simon on 10.30.08 at 01:43 AM
Comments
The Democratic Party in Florida is a bunch of disingenuous hacks. Yeah, that's harsh language. They know well and good that many of those registered as Democrats do not vote Democrat in the general election. Many people I personally know are registered Democrats for the simple reason that being a registered Republican, historically, excluded them from voting in important primaries. Although that's changed a bit over the last few years, these people just haven't formally changed their affiliation on their cards. The Florida Democrats are working furiously right now too. Over the last several days my mailbox has had two and three of their flyers a day. My phone has rung two and three times each evening from numbers I do not recognize, so I do not answer. It's not just coincidental. The funny thing is, any flyers I get from the Republican Party are about John McCain. Any flyers I get from the Democrat Party are about John McCain. The fact is that in spite of the "hook or crook" methods being employed by the Democrats, their edge is no where near where they think it should be. Oyster · October 30, 2008 08:52 AM I hope you're right. I am seeing far fewer Obama signs here in Nevada than I did for Kerry in '04. And I'm probably seeing more McCain/PALIN than I did W in '04. Yet the polls in Nevada indicate Obama pulling away. Strange. There is not the level of pro-Obama enthusiasm the media would lead us to believe there is, And yet, I do the electoral college math and the rosiest scenario I can imagine has McCain topping out at 265. I can't work the numbers to get him to 270. I'm expecting the Obamunist to top 300 in electoral votes. Less than the media expects, but enough to win. Rhodium Heart · October 30, 2008 10:54 PM Post a comment
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The words "caucus" and "democracy" ought never be used in the same sentence. The caucus system is designed to minimize democratic participation and skew towards party activists, the professional players. It's barely a step removed from the notorious "smoke filled room" of machine politics lore.
So I can understand the PUMAs' outrage that they were outgamed, but it is a sytem that favors gaming. And yes, Obama's campaign played plenty of underhanded tricks, but I doubt they would work well in the general election. So he's going to have to count on the more traditional Chicago methods of vote fraud - and those have worked before (q.v. JFK in 1960).
It's worth pointing out that Obama has so far never won a seriously contested election. His pattern has been to prepare the battlefield so he has his victory in hand prior to the voting. Despite his huge advantage in fundraising (via criminal means) and the near total support of the media, this is still much closer than he needs it to be. It isn't in the bag for him yet.