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October 24, 2008
Discounting the theory
I love the logic at work here. Nervousness about Barack Obama hurts the market. Yet the more the market hurts, the higher Obama goes in the polls. This would seem to be correlated in this chart: This reminds me of the way people who are afraid of getting bitten by a dog will often end up getting bitten by the dog, who is of course responding to their fear of getting bitten by the dog. But which fear is more rational? posted by Eric on 10.24.08 at 03:09 PM
Comments
If you look carefully, the last two weeks or so, the DOW has been a lagging indicator. Obama's numbers go up, shortly thereafter, the DOW goes down. Obama's numbers level or go down, shortly thereafter, the DOW levels or goes up. tim maguire · October 24, 2008 03:38 PM It's all about power. Federal, State, city and local power. Democrat and Republican pols alike won't be happy until the entire country feels like Michigan. dr kill · October 24, 2008 04:00 PM Pollsters should ask "likely voters" if they own any stock or a 401(k), or if they're relying on a public-sector pension (or some combination). That would be an interesting data set... (does Michael Pfleger still say having a 401(k) is racist?) Heather · October 24, 2008 04:36 PM The polls are not accurate. There is a pollster cocoon in Blue territory, and they have adopted the notion that there are gazillions of "new" voters who will vote for Barack Obama. So the pollsters ADD IN the "weight" of these supposed "new voters" AFTER the pollsters collect the answers to the poll. According the DJ Drummond, who blogs at Stolen Thunder blog, there is no historical basis for what the pollsters are doing. The pollsters are caught up in the fever of the Blue areas. See links to his blog below. The pollsters are "weighting" the polls as if there are 6 to 10 to even 13 percent more Democrats than there ever have historically been. DJ Drummond looks at the internal numbers of the polls that publish internal numbers, and he reverse-engineers them and re-weights the raw data to historical numbers of Democrat voters. The result shows that McCain and Palin are ahead in some places in which the pollsters say Senator Obama is ahead. The wild inaccuracy of the polls causes a feeling of panic and craziness for some Macain-Palin supporters. I imagine this is just a delightful side-effect as far as the pollsters are concerned. You may, like so many Americans, see Barack Obama as a taxing and government-takeover socialist. You may, as so many other American do, see Barack Obama's colleagues, supporters and associates as potentially (or actually) violent radical Leftists - in some cases, avowed "little 'c' communists," with no respect for American law. If you feel crazy when you see the polls, it is because the polls seem to indicate that so many OTHER Americans still want to vote for Barack Obama! That he has a chance of being elected! But if DJ Drummond is right, MOST Americans plan to vote for McCain-Palin. And therefore, at least on that score, you are not crazy. Here are links to Stolen Thunder blog: October 15th post is highly recommended: http://stolenthunder.blogspot.com/2008/10/one-obvious-reason-polls-are-biased.html summer day · October 24, 2008 05:49 PM I thought presidential elections were decided by sunspot activity, not stock market activity. The theory is that people vote to retain the party in power in the White House when there is a lot of sunspot activity, and they vote to kick them out when there are few sunspots. Unfortunately, I don't know if we are having a lot of sunspots right now or not. chocolatier · October 24, 2008 07:01 PM It is an interesting theory is it not? When I was compiling the chart up above I didn't think I'd see much other than the economy stinks and Mr. Obama is rising in the polls. But it was pretty eery to see the DOW following Mr. McCain's polls uniformly, especially in the last 10 days or so. It did remind me of the little upswing which occured when Mr. Bush beat Mr. Kerry in 2004. The market tended to rally around the election. TennesseePaul · October 24, 2008 07:22 PM We are having a record low in sunspot activity. Some predict a new ice age because of it. huggy · October 24, 2008 07:49 PM Hmmm. According to the theory, low sunspot activity points to an Obama election. chocolatier · October 24, 2008 08:55 PM I've been thinking that people (and major institutions) are pulling out of the market based on the chance that Obama and his merry band of "Progressive Socialists" - Pelosi, Reid &c - will do serious damage to the economy. One example: "House Democrats recently invited Teresa Ghilarducci, a professor at the New School of Social Research, to testify before a subcommittee on her idea to eliminate the preferential tax treatment of the popular retirement plans. In place of 401(k) plans, she would have workers transfer their dough into government-created "guaranteed retirement accounts" for every worker." One of the people backing this dismal plan is Washington's Jim McDermott. You may remember "Baghdad Jim" as one of the 3 Congressmen who went to Iraq, on Saddam's dime, back before the war. He's also one of the most left-leaning members of Congress. Only Obama comes close. ZZMike · October 24, 2008 09:02 PM The classis Prisoner's Dilemma. Community interest and self-interest diverge. Rhodium Heart · October 25, 2008 01:04 PM Well the Obama tax plan is going to put a lot of small businesses under as well as individuals. A 5% increase will wipe out a lot people from the job market. Then you have Barney Frank saying they are going to cut defense spending by 25%. For every individual reduction in the military you lose 8 civilians from the job market. So unemployment is really going to sky rocket. Government revenues will decrease and things will sprial done. Kind of like the Carter years only worse. toad · October 25, 2008 06:23 PM FYI- I have more updated and thorough charts available at www.AmericanMissive.com concerning the Obama Discount for your viewing pleasure. TennesseePaul · October 29, 2008 09:27 PM Post a comment
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This makes sense, believing Obama will re-distribute the wealth, as he says, will destroy the stock market. (and corporate America where the good jobs are)
The money is voting with its feet early.
Question is where is it going?
Will it come back?