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April 24, 2008
But I thought we were just voting for a nominee!
I thought I'd take another look at some hard Pennsylvania numbers. I'll start with the Republican primary vote totals: Republican Pres. PrimaryNot that these low numbers mean much, but as a percentage of the total number of Republicans who voted for Bush in 2004 (2,793,847), the McCain/Paul/Huckabee combined vote total represents 28.8% of the 2004 GOP potential. Compare the Democratic totals -- 1,260,072 (Clinton) plus 1,045,329 (Obama) for a total of 2,305,401 -- and divide that by Pennsylvania's 2004 Democratic (Kerry) vote (2,938,095), and you get a whopping 78.5% of the 2004 Democratic vote. In the primary. I'm only 53, but I have never heard of such a high turnout in any primary election. The Republican low turnout is understandable, because after all, McCain is the known nominee, and it's pointless to vote. (Under these circumstances, the 200-plus thousand votes for Paul and Huckabee look especially ominous.) I don't know what the political records are (or where they're kept), but the high Democratic turnout strikes me as nothing less than astounding. Unless I am missing something, I think this means that Republicans face a serious problem in Pennsylvania. And if these numbers are similar elsewhere, may God help them to beat whoever the nominee is (and for the millionth time, I hope it is not Hillary). No wonder people are treating the Obama Hillary race as if they're electing a president. posted by Eric on 04.24.08 at 08:05 AM
Comments
Doubtful, though even if that is only a mild factor it could have an impact in a close state like PA. I think there is some novelty factor as well. A lot of you guys have never had your vote count for much in a primary before, and people are figuring it might not ever again. As an experienced primary voter from NH, we would see the Ron Paul and Mike Huckabee votes as containing a lot of irritable protest votes, rather than especial support for those two or especial dislike of McCain. Do you have the numbers for your state in earlier years, and what the turnout and nominee support was on the Republican side for Dole or Bush? That comparison might be more telling. The Republican primary in PA this year is about as unimportant as it ever is - on the Dem side it counts. Assistant Village Idiot · April 24, 2008 09:33 AM Perhaps McCain is too busy campaigning for Obama Hillary for Republicans to bother. In any case; riots aside come October McCain's real opponent won't be the Democrat candidate, his opponent will be those affluent Marxists who are prepared to spend hundreds of millions of dollar insuring by any means necessary that a Republican is not elected into the White House. Those who believe a McCain victory in November will be easy are in for a real shock as they watch his campaign go down in flames. The GOP and the McCain campaign have absolutely no idea, completely clueless in fact, by the level at which Marxists will go to keep a Republican out of the White House. Fact is, whether we like it or not, negative campaigns are effective in getting candidates elected; McCain is going to get creamed in November. I'm not happy about an Obama Clinton in the White House however, I won't delude myself into thinking McCain will win just because Obama Clinton is the worst of the candidates running. syn · April 24, 2008 10:27 AM Obama is going to be the Democratic nominee, but as time goes on, more and more is coming out about him--people are finally catching up to where I was in the summer of 2004. While I realize that the MSM will not publicize this material, it will get out, in spite of them, through the Internet and GOP 527s. And this material could win the election for McCain. Not that I'll be voting for him. Nicholas Stix · April 24, 2008 04:56 PM Post a comment
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What about the 30% of the Hillary voters who plan to vote for McCain? (probably actually 15% come November). What about the Hill supporters who will undervote or write in Hill in Nov.?
What about the turn out for a race that might have decided the Dem primary?
What about all the R voters who registered D for a shot at one of the two contenders.
There are so many confounding variables.
Add in the riots expected at the conventions and I'd give McCain better than even odds in Nov.