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April 23, 2008
Keeping my selfish hope alive
Don't miss Rick Moran's analysis of yesterday's election. Excerpt: Hillary Clinton received 62% of the white vote. Barack Obama received 89% of the African American vote. The question facing superdelegates is: how can they run a candidate who loses the white vote by almost 2-1 in a state they absolutely must carry to win the election? And it wasn't just the voter's race that made a difference. Clinton ran up astonishing majorities in the mostly white, mostly rural counties in the northeast part of the state. In Luzerne county she received 75% of the vote. She got 70% of the vote in Wyoming county. Culturally conservative but economically moderate, these blue collar voters in places like Scranton and Wilkes-Barre were considered at one time "Reagan Democrats" - reliable Democratic voters when it came to candidates on the down ballot but Republican when voting for President. In recent elections, they have returned to the Democratic party in greater numbers and have given the party a victory in the state in every election since 1988.Hillary is far more popular than Obama here in Pennsylvania, and not just with white people, but with working class people, middle income people, Catholics, and Jews. The only groups he does well with are blacks, young people, the rich (incomes over $150,000), and the poor (below $15,000). Hardly a winning coalition. My conclusion? There's only one I can draw definitively: McCain would beat Obama hands down in Pennsylvania. But could he beat Hillary? For the umpteenth time, I'm seriously worried that he couldn't. Once again, the Limbaugh crossovers should be careful what they wish for. Obviously, most Republicans simply prefer Hillary to Obama. There's nothing wrong with having such a preference (it's probably a no-brainer) but should it translate into helping Hillary get on the ballot? I don't think so. Which is why I voted for Obama yesterday, and I hope I'll be able to vote against him in the fall. But I'm worried that after yesterday's lesson, the Dems will soon wise up (there are plenty of signs they are), and it is increasingly unlikely that he will be the candidate. Still, I can hope, can't I? posted by Eric on 04.23.08 at 09:51 AM
Comments
Republicans are voting for Hillary in the expectation that she won't win the nomination. They just want to keep the battle going, and prevent her from dropping out until the convention. Ron Hardin · April 23, 2008 11:35 AM You are assuming that Democrats would vote for McCain over Obama because they voted for Clinton. That's NOT knowable from the data. Even those that say they'll vote for McCain have 6 months to change their minds. I voted for Alan Keyes in the 2000 primary as a protest after Bush was the nominee because I didn't like him or McCain. Guess who I voted for in November? Reading general election results off of one party's primary is invalid. John Lynch · April 23, 2008 12:21 PM Possibly there are conservatives who feel like I do - that while McCain is best, Clinton would be better than Obama and want the assurance early on that Obama can't make it to the Oval Office. If I could be entirely certain McCain would beat Obama... Donna B. · April 23, 2008 08:17 PM Post a comment
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McCain received only 74 percent of the vote in the primary yesterday. He should have received something like 95 percent if the party were really behind him. I don't believe he can win against any Democrat. Electorally the demographics work against him. He will not draw enough voters in key swing states like FL, PA, CO, NM and OH.