Long time commenter and e-mail friend linearthinker brought that word to my attention. He quotes this definition:
"...the statistical analysis of elections. Psephology uses compilations of precinct voting returns for elections going back some years, public opinion polls, campaign finance information and similar statistical data."
And then he explains why it is important.
One quarter of all registered voters are Catholics and Biden is losing Obama their votes.
And since he was so kind to include a link to an article on the subject I will too. The Elephant Bar quotes from The Telegraph UK.
Remember, you read it here first: on September 11 this blog reported a mounting backlash from Catholic bishops against Biden, Barack Obama's "Catholic" pro-abortion running mate. At that time I estimated eight bishops had come out to denounce Biden; the total is now 55. Beyond that, Biden is being trashed across every state of the Union by Catholic newspapers, TV and radio stations, and blogs. It is a tsunami of rejection.
The story has now hit the secular media. Last Saturday Time magazine asked: "Does Biden Have a Catholic Problem?" By Wednesday the issue had moved onto the front page of the New York Times. Joe the Jinx has blown it, big time. Biden has only himself to blame: he started this war, with his notoriously undisciplined mouth. He knew the dangers. Last August, Archbishop Raymond Burke, former Archbishop of St Louis and now Prefect of the Apostolic Segnatura in Rome, said communion should be denied to pro-abortion politicians "until they have reformed their lives".
Archbishop Chaput of Denver had already announced Biden should not receive communion because of his pro-abortion views. Defiantly, Biden took communion in his home parish in Delaware in late August. On September 2 the Bishop of Scranton, Pennsylvania (a crucial swing state) banned him from communion in his diocese. That is effective excommunication.
Uh. Oh. Joe is deep in it. Now here is the killer:
There are 47 million Catholic voters in the United States. One quarter of all registered voters are Catholics. At every presidential election in the past 30 years the Catholic vote has gone to the winning candidate, except for Al Gore in 2000. This year 41 per cent of Catholics are independents - up from 30 per cent in 2004. Psephologists claim practising Catholics were the decisive factor in the crucial swing states in 2004: in Ohio 65 per cent of Catholics voted for Bush, in Florida 66 per cent. They were drifting away in disillusionment from the Republicans and split 50-50, until Joe Biden worked his magic. This is electoral suicide by the Democrats.
Yep. And Jews are drifting away from the Democrats as well. In fact it looks like they are now being pushed. It all starts with an anti-Ahmadinejad rally. Hillary Clinton and Sarah Palin were both invited to the rally. When Hillary pulled out Democrats threatened to sic the IRS on the Jewish organizations if Palin showed up at the official event.
CBS2 has a Democratic politician on record with the story of why Sarah Palin's invitation was rescinded after Hillary Clinton pulled out of the event upon hearing that Palin was also invited and planned to attend the rally to protest Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad speaking at the UN, with one Democratic lawmaker calling it "McCarthyism."
Once Clinton canceled and announced she would not attend, according to the report, the "axes were out for Palin" and the Jewish Groups which organized the event were told their tax exempt status would be jeopardized if Palin attended but Hillary Clinton or Democratic vice presidential candidate, Joe Biden did not.
CBS 2 spoke to Assemblyman Dov Hikind, Democrat from Brooklyn, who said, "This is insulting. This is embarrassing, especially to Gov. Palin, to me and I think it should be to every single New Yorker."
Hikind goes on to to declare, "It's an absolute shame that this has happened. To threaten organizations ... to threaten the Conference of Presidents that if you don't withdraw the invitation to Gov. Palin we're going to look into your tax exempt status ... that's McCarthyism."
Jeeze Democrats. What a way to shore up support with a core constituency. First the Catholics. Now the Jews. You would almost think that this was an attempt to lose in a landslide. Here is another little bit on the subject from an article titled: Jews For John McCain Poll Shocker.
The Siena Poll of New York likely voters is really going to upset the tummies of the Democrat Party, if they have any sense at all.
New York Jews have not voted Republican en masse since Ronald Reagan and as of six months ago didn't appear to have changed.
The tide has seemingly turned though. In the Siena Poll (cross tabs) section is a demographic which should make Mr Obama start thinking about what to do with all of his spare time after next November.
The issue would be Sen. John McCain garnering 57% of the New York Jewish favorable view and Mr Obama getting a miserable 38% favorable rating.
That is not good news for the Obama/Biden camp, since the last time this happened Ronaldus Maximus Reagan won in such a landslide the world doesn't even remember who his opponent was. (actually the guy who ran against Reagan went on to get a job building houses for free and roaming the globe trash talking the United States and Israel)
It seems like the only identity politics the Obama team can play well is Black. That will guarantee him about 12% of the vote. Add in the Democrat "progressives" and it is still not enough to win an election.
You know this is pretty stupid for a Harvard educated guy who taught at the University of Chicago. Not to mention the fact that he has spent his adult life in Chicago identity politics. He should have spent more time in the ethnic wards on the North Side. They have Catholic areas up there. Jewish areas. And don't forget the hippie contingent. He might have learned a thing or two.
I think he is one of those kind of people who are over represented in academia. Too smart to learn anything new.
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Comments
I have to disagree with the Catholic clergy about excommunicating politicians who have political views different from the personal beliefs and behavior.
Of course, I'm a non-practicing Catholic, so that doesn't count for much. I'd just rather religion and politics be much much more separate than they are.
This news makes me very happy. Arrogance will get you in the end.
Donna B, the Catholic bishops aren't mixing religion and politics. They are holding Catholics who happen to be in politics to the same standards they hold Catholics who aren't in politics.
David · September 20, 2008 10:21 PM
Donna, the Catholic Church has every right to excommunicate anyone who publicly undermines church doctrine. It's also perfectly appropriate for any church to urge its followers to support candidates who share that church's values. Separation of church and state works in the other direction.
On New York Jews rejecting Obama, I have to wonder if this isn't working out exactly as Hillary hoped when she withdrew.
tim maguire · September 20, 2008 10:23 PM
I'll believe it when I see it starting to appear in the polls.
Despite the flurry of "Racism!!!" and "Sexism!!!" charges this year, most people really and truly don't vote based on identity politics.
In 2004, the GOP was frantically opposed to same-sex marriage. The same 23% of the gay vote went to Bush in 2004 as in 2000.
Barack Obama is actually an African-American himself. And yet he's polling exactly the same support among black voters as John Kerry did in 2004. (This surprised me -- I was going to write that he wasn't much above Kerry. Turns out he's at 88% in Rasmussen's cross-tabs, exactly equal to what Kerry got in CNN's 2004 exit polling.)
So I'm skeptical of the notion that even 55 bishops condemning Biden (the junior man on the ticket) will sway more than a few % of catholic voters. Likewise, much as I'd like to believe otherwise, I'm not convinced that any significant number of Jewish voters will be deciding their vote based primarily on the Obama camp's partisan sabotage of the protest against Iran's madman.
Clint · September 20, 2008 11:21 PM
Clint,
I think Jews have been moving away from blacks for years. Largely because many blacks have adopted Jew hatred. The polls may just be a manifestation of that split.
As NY and Illinois are safely blue, I doubt that Obama-Biden care too much about those votes, so long as the issues don't make it into the national press, where other Catholics and Jews might be affected.
The Anti-Idiotarian Rottweiler
Don?t bang your head!
I have to disagree with the Catholic clergy about excommunicating politicians who have political views different from the personal beliefs and behavior.
Of course, I'm a non-practicing Catholic, so that doesn't count for much. I'd just rather religion and politics be much much more separate than they are.