I can't believe it, but I'm watching the returns trickle in, and Obama is winning by a much larger margin than I expected.
As of right now, with 56% of the vote in, Obama is ahead 54% to Hillary's 27%.
And Bill is red faced and ranting in a Missouri speech -- as if he's running for president.
Naturally, the Clintons will spin this as a vote along racial lines. Michael Graham outlines how:
No matter what happens in South Carolina today - even if Obama wins a plurality among white voters - the Clintons and their media stooges have turned South Carolina into "the black primary."
In fact, the bigger his win, the more it reinforces the campaign-killing message that Barack Obama is "their" candidate.
If tomorrow's headlines read "Obama Crushes Clinton, Wins 80 percent of African-American Vote," every non-black voter will get the message that Obama is somebody else's candidate, not theirs.
However, the vote is so lopsided that Obama might be getting more support from white voters than the Clintons counted on. Considerable animosity was expressed by white voters in exit polls:
74% of African-American voters think that Clinton unfairly attacked Obama. But when we look at the same question among white voters, a comparable number thought Clinton unfairly attacked Obama -- 68%.
Also worth mentioning, a majority of the voters -- 56% -- said that Bill Clinton's campaigning was important to their vote today.
But as to the overall white vote for Obama I don't know the actual numbers.
I do know that the pundits predicted a 13 point spread, and this is more than twice that.
MORE (09:26 p.m.): Just finished watching Obama's speech. Once again, I have to say that he is a great orator, a speaker with the ability to inspire. The best rhetorician I have seen (my B.A. is in Rhetoric and I say this as a compliment) since Ronald Reagan. His appeal is wide ranging, and his sincerity is obvious. While I am skeptical that he can overcome the entrenched Clinton machine, anything is possible.
I'm very impressed at his ability to go for the jugular in a respectful manner. He nailed the Clintons on their bullshit, and their racializing, yet he did so without a hint of an ad hominem attack.
MORE: CNN just showed Hillary delivering a speech in Nashville. That faux Southern accent again! Her performance reminded me of Zelig, and I half expected her to break out in the refrain of "Stand By Your Man." (Fortunately, she didn't.)
AND MORE: Via CNN, the white vote for Obama:
South Carolina White Vote for Obama
college educated 32%
no college 17%
18-29 50%
30-59 24%
60+ 15%
UPDATE: My thanks to Glenn Reynolds for the link, for the quote, and for the kind words about the "jugular" remark. Welcome all!
Hmmm... I know about the adage about catching more flies with honey, but is there a corollary that jugulars are best approached with respect?
UPDATE: Glenn Reynolds has a great roundup of reactions including Dave Kopel who, while diametrically opposed to Obama politically, nonetheless gives him a high score:
A citizen can disagree with governmental policy proposals of Barack Obama, just as a citizen could disagree with the the policies of Ronald Reagan. But there is no reasonable doubt that Reagan did an excellent job in his role as Head of State. A patriotic American can appreciate the good work of a President as Head of State, even while disliking much of the President's work as Head of Government. Senator Obama's victory speech in South Carolina suggests that he too might be an outstanding Head of State.
More ominously for Hillary, Mark Steyn calls Obama "Kennedyesque."
And some Democrats are wising up about the Clintons; Captain Ed is not surprised!
Overall, I think Barack Obama has shown remarkable humility. Considering the nature of American politics, that's refreshing in itself.
posted by Eric on 01.26.08 at 08:35 PM
Comments
Someone really needs to tell her to knock off the accent thing. She might not be doing it deliberately - I have a tendency to soak up a little of whatever accent I'm around - but in her context it doesn't come across well at all.
jaed · January 26, 2008 10:29 PM
obama has great rhetoric.
so does mccain.
tho' very different.
mccain's style is blunt.
his "straight talk" is not straight about substance, but only in style.
mccain lies bluntly.
i don't think we chose our POTUS based on their rhetoric, and if we do, then i give the edge to mccain: his is jacksonian.
americans have always chosen the natural hero over the egghead.
IF mccain gets the nomination, then this will be a repeat of ike versus adlai.
i favor Mitt - because he is a conservative.
any doubts i have about his conservatism pale in comparison to mccain. mccain is as liberal as obama - just a hawk on iraq.
but Mitt's style is more like obama's - and not a good.
and he might come off as more like jq adams, and lose to obama who might seem more Lincolnesque - with a grass hut (of his grandparents) subbing for a log cabin.
i'd hope the electorate would select Mitt's resume and accomplishments and HOENSTY over obama's thin resume and ties to chicago crooks.
we'll soon see.
will the USA choose style over substance?
there are only two substantial candidates left in the field - Mitt and Rudy. and only one has a shot. MITT.
It is about time to end this myth that Democrat Party has been "the party of civil rights," and to show it up for what it is: the biggest fraud in American political history. The Democrat Party WAS the party of slavery, WAS the party of the KKK, WAS the party of Jim Crow, and IS the party of pure racist bilge put out by two political grifters from Arkansas who have been shielded by the mainstream media for sixteen years, and who still get the endorsement of The New York Times today.
Teutonic Tribe Medicine Man · January 26, 2008 11:03 PM
Obama says nothing with alot of style. If he wins we will get what we deserve.
Richard Cook · January 26, 2008 11:39 PM
Y'know, I thought Reagan when I saw the speech too. I also thought MLK got invoked as well...he did not come out and say "I have a dream of white children and black children sitting down together..." but that was what he meant.
And I find that to be a good thing along with the Reaganesque flavor.
If he has some good ideas to go with the 'Reagan' he could well reshape American politics. There might be a fair number of social conservatives wondering if they need a new home (and just a 'fair number of socons' tends to dwarf most other groups in their entirety.) Oddly enough, I did end up voting Dem for Harold Ford and Phil Bredesen...it helped that the R facing Ford was a RINO Establishment moderate and the previous R before Bredesen tried to impose a state income tax on us. I say thats odd because I'm a pretty hardcore conservative.
Eric R. Ashley · January 26, 2008 11:42 PM
There is one really good thing about Obama.
If he gets the nomination the Clintons will work against him.
(Sorry, I was a Speech major in the 60s and 70s, when people were too stoned to under terms like rhetoic. Or logic. Or is.
I'd rate Obama, and Reagan, as presentable. That they earn such high rankings today is just evidence that we have grown accustomed to people who read speechwriter's pieces haltingly off a teleprompter, or talk in a monotone while staring at written notes.
David Hardy · January 27, 2008 2:02 AM
Once again, I have to say that he is a great orator, a speaker with the ability to inspire. .......His appeal is wide ranging, and his sincerity is obvious.
Obama may have great style, but the substance of his policy positions are old school liberalism. Given his poor ideas, I don't think he inspires anyone but liberals who have long fantasized that they are superior to others and that the only reason they have trouble winning the presidency is that people just don't understand how wonderful their policies really are.
As to his sincerity, how can a Harvard graduate really believe that income redistribution leads to a greater good? It leads to more power for the government and it constitutes a great populist campaign message, it just doesn't lead to a greater good. I don't believe any educated person who espouses those beliefs is sincere. Finally, he is as down and dirty as any politician. Do you remember Jack Ryan who originally ran against him in the Illinois Senate election? They dug up sealed records from his divorce. Obama could have nipped that in the bud but he let the media do the dirty work for him. He also played hardball in his state senate elections.
You can take the steaming turd of liberal ideology and put it in a beautiful tiffany's box and wrap it with a silk bow and it will look really nice. None the less, it will still be a steaming turd.
jt007 · January 27, 2008 2:16 AM
Hillary has to be wild today. If they don't shut Bill up they might as well pack it in. Obama presents well but has problematic policies and little experience. Hillary is just plain disliked by most A,ericans especially with Bill wagging that finger. Either is just what us republicans need to win the Whitehouse in November.
The Anti-Idiotarian Rottweiler
Don?t bang your head!
Someone really needs to tell her to knock off the accent thing. She might not be doing it deliberately - I have a tendency to soak up a little of whatever accent I'm around - but in her context it doesn't come across well at all.