Ephebiphobia on the campaign trail?

Speaking of polls, the Des Moines Register appears to have done a pretty thorough job of gauging the support of Iowans for the various candidates as they make their way into the final stretch of the caucuses.

While the poll is mainly attracting attention because it shows Obama pulling ahead of Hillary, something else really caught my attention.

Hillary has a serious, serious problem with young voters.

I mean, look at this (which I cropped and highlighted from the original):

HillaryJugend.jpg

Only 11 percent of the 18-34 voters support Hillary. That's a shocker, and
I don't know whether it is limited to Iowa, but there's no reason to expect it is.

Despite all the various waves of anti-Bush hysteria, I can't remember him ever doing that badly among young people.

In that regard, perhaps Hillary should take the muzzle off her daughter Chelsea.

Why would she be afraid of her daughter, anyway?

I mean, can Chelsea really do more damage than Jenna and Barbara?

Could it be fear of youth?

UPDATE: My thanks to Glenn Reynolds for the link, and a warm welcome to all.

Comments appreciated.

posted by Eric on 01.01.08 at 10:23 AM





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Also noticed the higher the income or the education level, the less they support HRC.
Hmmm.

Charlie   ·  January 1, 2008 12:07 PM

I don't like her out of the Democratic candidates because she is the most obviously power-hungry out of the bunch. Most of my politically aware friends have the same sentiment. I'm 23, and my generate is extremely cynical about that sort of stuff. Even my liberal friends think she's a weasel.

Dermanus   ·  January 1, 2008 03:16 PM

I don't think it's a matter of Clinton doing poorly with younger audiences, but of Obama doing so well with them. Of course, let's see if he can actually get those people out to vote in strong numbers on election day. If he can, he'd be the first in a long time to do so.

Rand   ·  January 1, 2008 03:55 PM

Too bad turnout in the 18-34 demographic is so low. I think it's more that they like Obama than dislike Hillary. It's worth noticing that the more education people have, the more likely they are to vote for Obama. On the Democratic side, more education typically means people are more liberal.

We've seen over and over again that it's the old people who matter in elections, not the young. It's interesting that the 55 plus crowd are just as supportive of John Edwards as Hillary Clinton. It's also interesting that their support for Obama is lower. I won't speculate as to why that is.

John Lynch   ·  January 1, 2008 07:44 PM

I just got the polling data from Zogby and what hit me was the question of Senator Clinton's electability if more than 60 percent of Democrats prefer someone else?

For the youngsters out there, GW's inevitability was hammered out early in the process. There's still some yammering about "fair play" in the Carolinas, but who cares...think politics is rough? How about a story about a DUII conviction and possible drug use a week before the general election.

Inevitability? Uh-hmm.

OregonGuy   ·  January 2, 2008 02:53 AM

Hillary is notorious for a few famous "anti-youth" positions, mainly attempts to appeal to parents. One example is how she's been a very strong supporter of government involvement in banning and restricting video games based on content, sponsoring several pieces of legislation on the matter. I certainly don't think that it explains everything, but a decent amount of the 18-34 demographic are video game players who dislike her for that.

John Thacker   ·  January 2, 2008 07:55 AM

My 29-yr-old stepdaughter is an IT manager in the healthcare field, working in the Bronx surrounded by lefties. She's started listening to Mark Levin on her long commute home and sounds shockingly informed all of a sudden, lecturing her new hubby yesterday on the dangers of Hillarycare, the Dems on healthcare in general, and the importance of electing someone who will NOT socialize healthcare and destroy healthcare and pharma innovation and our economy in general. My husband and I know all this but it is a joy to hear it coming from one's youngster, especially one working in a rabidly lefty environment.

She is one reason the Dems view talk radio as so dangerous and something that must be squelched at all costs.

Peg C.   ·  January 2, 2008 08:01 AM

I recently graduated out of the particular age group. I have many dislikes of Hillary, but on a pure policy basis, what does she offer to the youth? I point to her Christmas Ad; she is buying votes with taxpayers dollars, and sure that brings support. However, what do the youth get besides the bill and the long run?

In addition, you have what John Thacker wrote (aside: striking writers should read it too). Hillary is a nanny state politician, and the last thing a 18-34 wants is to have a nanny again.

If you want to vote Democrat, Obama looks and acts the youngest, so the poll doesn't surprise me at all. What Charlie wrote also doesn't surprise me. If you have worked hard and earned a decent living to provide for yourself, why would Hillary Clinton be attractive to you as a candidate? Now, if you are 55 or over and couldn't save a dime, then I would think Hillary is your woman regardless of party.

Leland   ·  January 2, 2008 08:20 AM

The only thing a candidate I would vote for can do for me is reduce government, everywhere.

No more taxes, no more 'gifts', no more boomers. And I am a boomer.

Willy   ·  January 2, 2008 09:09 AM

In this gag-inducing video, we see the press shilling for Hillary and carrying on about how "great she is with young people..."

I don't know about anyone else, but I'm not going to be able to take 4-8 years of that woman nodding her head continually while other people speak and then popping out her eyes.

emam   ·  January 2, 2008 10:46 AM
emam   ·  January 2, 2008 10:47 AM

A few things to add to the reasons already given for Hillary's weak support among young voters:

(1) She's the least-credible antiwar candidate. Younger Democrats are more likely to be Truthers or just opposed to the Iraq War in general. Of the Democrats, Hillary is the biggest hawk.

(2) If identity politics is important to you, "Black" beats "Woman." Younger voters are more likely to place importance on electing a non-white-male. If B. Hussein Obama were not in the race, identity politics voters would vote for Hillary, but "Black" trumps "Woman"

(3) Hillary is a nagging mom. I'm in the 18-34 demographic, and Hillary reminds me of my mother when she would nag me or condescend to me in a shrill voice.

AK   ·  January 2, 2008 12:05 PM

I'm 32, but never been a dem or a lefty; but here's my take.
Hilary is the epitome of everything Gen X and Y hate about baby boomers--self important know-it-all's who believe that they must take care of all us unmotivated slackers by telling us what to do. Call it what you will--nannyish, maternal, nagging. The bottom line is that she reminds us of our 6th grade home run teachers, not the leaders of the free world we grew up with.

Tanker J.D.   ·  January 2, 2008 12:56 PM

That should be "home room" teacher, not "home run" teacher. oops.

Tanker J.D.   ·  January 2, 2008 12:57 PM

I think AK nails it with #3. It's the Scold Factor, and apparently uneducated grandmothers are the only ones who really find it appealing.

Young folks don't want someone telling them what to do; they want to believe they can change the world. And frankly, when you look around at what they'll be dealing with, they need to be able to believe that. I'm a Republican, but I think Obama's candidacy is good for the country, even if an Obama presidency is not. If he had another 4 years of national experience under his belt, he'd be flat out walking away with this election, but I suppose you carpe the diem you get..

If Obama loses the primaries, it will be interesting to see whether his 18 - 34 demographics will translate into votes for Hillary or a return to apathy. If she is too controlling to let her own adult daughter open her mouth, it's tough to see her letting a spacious thinker like Obama anywhere near the stage -- and that's not just a short term problem for Democrats. Even if Obama goes on to lose a national election, he's young enough, and quite possibly savvy enough to build on the mantle of leadership his nomination & campaign will supply. He's far more likely to keep a newly motivated generation engaged in the political process than a defeated Hillary could ever be.

It will also be interesting to see what role the Clintons play should Hillary lose out to Obama. I suspect it will come as something of a shock when they discover just how much of the Clinton hegemony derived from a potential Hillary presidency. How quickly will the $$ oiling that machine dry up? Can Obama successfully peel the reins from Clinton hands, or will Hill & Bill try to take their marbles with them? I don't see them settling for being yesterday's news, alas, and if you're an empire builder, you could do worse than, say, Governor of New York where it's looking like there may well be an opening on the Democratic ticket.

JM Hanes   ·  January 2, 2008 02:23 PM

I am deeply impressed by the perceptiveness of the younger voters commenting here. Perhaps I will sell off some of my handbasket collection.

Assistant Village Idiot   ·  January 2, 2008 02:25 PM

I don't think it's that young people don't want to vote for Hillary or that they're against Edwards, for that matter. Obama just really appeals to young people for some reason, perhaps because he seems young himself and is more liberal. In the general election, those young Obama supporters will have no problem voting for Clinton over the Republican.

Chris   ·  January 2, 2008 03:19 PM

Great to hear from all of you under 35. It gives me hope.

Let's hear MOAR!!!111

Michael Barger   ·  January 2, 2008 09:10 PM

Maybe I'm cynical, but I think it's a combination of the fact that Obama is better looking and cooler then Hil and that Hil is one of those f***'n Boomers. It may be lost on many in the demographic, but those of us outside it are damn sick and tired of every thing in the world from breath mints and tooth paste to banking and financial services being marketed to the Boomers by kissing their ass and telling them how unique, hip, revolutionary, special and important them and their generation is.

I mean, c'mon. Their greatest claim to fame is thay all got stoned and whined so loud and long that they forced the US to loose a war. Do you want to vote for that?

submandave   ·  January 3, 2008 11:44 AM

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