The Future Of Warfare

Thomas Barnett gave this talk in 2005 when Iraq was falling apart. If you listen closely he discusses the mistake President Present is about to make in Afghanistan.

The video is quite funny and full of salty language. It is also about a half hour and worth every minute.

The bottom line: we need a procedure for fixing failed states. So far the effort has been ad hoc. It needs to be formalized.

You can get more Thomas Barnett at Thomas Barnett.

H/T glemieux at Talk Polywell

Cross Posted at Power and Control

posted by Simon on 11.15.09 at 05:36 AM





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Barnett talks on and on. After a while you notice, the same is true with his books, grand solutions that no one uses. He produces fantasy ideas. Not one clue on how to make them work. He makes a lot of money doing this.
He is perhaps the best Power Point presenter in the country.
Note: That is not a solution.

Ray   ·  November 15, 2009 10:22 AM

Ray,

The Brits had such a system. The Colonial Office.

It is not about the pieces though. It is about the idea. The Marines have a small wars manual. A "reconstructing a country" manual would be good. Perhaps also a "making a country" manual.

It might be good to also emphasize a Marine trait. Improvise.

M. Simon   ·  November 15, 2009 01:26 PM

Ha. I say let the Marines be in charge. It will keep them busy and there's nothing more dangerous than a bored Marine. At least this applies to retired Marines.

Maybe we should let the retired Marines do it? I volunteer mine...

Donna B.   ·  November 15, 2009 05:05 PM

Donna B.,

My very best regards to you and your Marine.

The video emphasized that you want 19 year old trigger pullers and 40 year old reconstruction experts.

In fact a corp dominated by retired or former military might be a very good idea.

M. Simon   ·  November 15, 2009 06:35 PM

The biggest problem in Afghanistan--the biggest among many problems--is that you're not really "rebuilding" a country, you're "building" one.

In Iraq (I've been here in Baghdad for a year now, going home soon), for all it's other problems, most of the people thought of themselves as Iraqi at some level. Maybe Shia first, Iraqi second, maybe Kurd, then Moslem, then Shia, then Iraqi, but it was on the list.

I don't know if this holds true outside of Kabul and a few small cities.

Being a Marine at one point in my life, and being north of 40 now (and still turning towards the sound of gun fire, then stopping when I realize I don't have a gun) let me suggest that at least the beginnings of the outline for a manual on state building would be:

Chapter I: How To Think Like A Country.
Chapter II: Infrastructure, how much is too little?
Chapter III: Exports, and no Heroin doesn't count.

William O. B'Livion.   ·  November 17, 2009 08:49 AM

Not every country can be reconstituted into an ally of the West - or of the US.

That's where this falls apart.

Here in Israel we did a lot of "winning the peace" stuff - we've taught Americans how to fight and win against terrorists embedded in civilian populations.

It still hasn't helped us against an implacable enemy.

Although we must try - it's not at all clear that the West can "win the peace" with the Islamic world.

Ben-David   ·  November 17, 2009 03:38 PM

Ben-David,

You are in a two-hundred year project with at least another hundred years to run.

William,

How to think like a country:

A common language is the place to start. The French understood this although they may have carried their understanding too far.

Common history. This requires schools.

A common bond. Money from the government (or even better infrastructure projects - the subsidies can end when the work is done). Security is another way.

Those come to mind offhand.

M. Simon   ·  November 17, 2009 03:50 PM

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