Are the Republicans due for a resurgence?

Byron York makes a very credible argument that they are:

"I think what's going to happen is Obama's going to be fine, and the Democrats in Congress are going to get their asses kicked in 2010," says one Democratic strategist who prefers not to be named. "This is following a curve like the Clinton years: take on really controversial things early, fail, or succeed partially, ask Democrats to take really tough votes, and then lose. A lot of guys are going to get beat, but the president has time to recover."

Most Republican hope focuses on the House of Representatives, but even there they have a huge job ahead. Democrats control 256 seats, and Republicans 178. Forty seats would have to change hands for Republicans to take charge.

On the other hand, 52 seats turned over when the GOP won the House in 1994. And even if Republicans don't get the 40 they need in 2010, they could dramatically narrow the gap between the parties, giving Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the Democratic leadership less room to operate.

The polls are definitely moving in the GOP's direction. Just look at the Real Clear Politics average of the generic ballot question, which asks whether, if the election were held today, you would vote for your local Democratic or Republican candidate for Congress. It's been dominated by Democrats for the last few years -- until now.

In recent weeks, poll after poll has shown Republicans neck-and-neck, or even ahead, of Democrats. Even a National Public Radio survey found Republicans in the lead. "There's no question that you're seeing a shift across virtually all the polling," says one GOP strategist, "with Democrats losing ground."

If the Democrats have any sense, they'll kill Obamacare, at least for the time being. It doesn't have to be all the Democrats having sense; just enough. Things might then die down. But whether enough Democrats have enough sense to make that happen, who knows?

Obama's popularity ratings are falling, and nothing seems to have made them fall as fast as the hurried plan to implement government health care right now or else. I think he's come very close to using up the political capital that new presidents traditionally have, and if he's as slick as so many believe he is, he ought to just back off for the time being.

Even from a left wing point of view, it ought to be clear that this drive for government health care has done great damage, for it has gone beyond merely reactivating the tired old GOP; it has created a new generation of activists. Moreover, these activists are not activists in the traditional sense. Far from being GOP party hacks, they are beholden to none. Worst of all, regular people like them!

Republicans were sensing momentum earlier in the summer, but events of the August recess -- specifically, the town hall meetings in which opponents of the Democratic health care reform plan have turned out in force -- have changed their view. "This month has opened our eyes," says one plugged-in House aide. "We're seeing real people who are fired up who weren't engaged before -- the first time we've had a popular movement that could really benefit us electorally."

For the moment, Republicans aren't worried about press reports portraying protesters as rent-a-mobs or ugly extremists. A new Gallup poll asking whether the demonstrations have made people more or less sympathetic to the protesters' point of view found that 34 percent of respondents said they were more sympathetic, while just 21 percent said less sympathetic. (Thirty-six percent said it made no difference.) For Republicans, that's a net plus.

If the Democrats are dumb enough to push this atrocity of a health care bill through, then the real people who are fired up who weren't engaged before can be depended on to vote. All that Republicans would need to do to win would be to run on an anti-Obamacare platform.

Here's my dilemma. While I hope the Democrats are dumb enough to allow this to happen (because I'd like to see them lose their majority), I also hope they kill Obamacare. (You know, for the sake of the country?)

On the other hand, maybe if they do kill Obamacare, the real-people-who-are-fired-up-who-weren't-engaged-before brigades will start enjoying the taste of political victory, and want more.