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July 14, 2009
Climate Models Are Not So Hot
It looks like the scientists who have predicted unending global warming caused by CO2 emissions may be in serious error. No one knows exactly how much Earth's climate will warm due to carbon emissions, but a new study this week suggests scientists' best predictions about global warming might be incorrect. The study, which appears in Nature Geoscience, found that climate models explain only about half of the heating that occurred during a well-documented period of rapid global warming in Earth's ancient past. The study, which was published online today, contains an analysis of published records from a period of rapid climatic warming about 55 million years ago known as the Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum, or PETM.If this study holds up we are going to be wasting vast sums of money (robbed is a better term) if Waxman-Malarkey passes the Senate. This is nothing new for regular readers of this blog. I have thought for a long time that the models were not well connected to reality. What is new is that the nails are getting more frequently pounded into the AGW coffin. People are starting to lose faith - especially considering the cold summer we have been having in much of the USA. Consider a couple of books that have come out in the last year: Air Con: The Seriously Inconvenient Truth About Global Warming Heaven and Earth: Global Warming, the Missing Science It seems that the faith is starting to lose adherents. It seems that the science is not so settled. Even the guys at Real Climate are starting to hedge their bets. Nature (with hopefully some constructive input from humans) will decide the global warming question based upon climate sensitivity, net radiative forcing, and oceanic storage of heat, not on the type of multi-decadal time scale variability we are discussing here. However, this apparent impulsive behavior explicitly highlights the fact that humanity is poking a complex, nonlinear system with GHG forcing - and that there are no guarantees to how the climate may respond.Say, weren't they very big promoters of "the science is settled" meme. Yes they were. I guess that now a days the science is not so settled. Some one call Al Gore. Stat. H/T VG at Watts Up With That Cross Posted at Power and Control posted by Simon on 07.14.09 at 10:04 PM
Comments
Notice in the Real Climate link where they say, "Sure it's cooling, but it's just a hiccup, it'll start warming any day now" yet nowhere does the word "Sun" appear. They don't mention the Sun while talking about the temperature of the Earth. Why can't global warmmongers ever, ever, ever mention that the Sun was more active in the 90s and less active now and the Earth was heating when it was more active and cooling now that it's less active? I mean, it fits with my "most people are lying sacks of crap" theory, but really. That's why I make fun of them anymore, if you are discussing the temperature of the Earth and you don't mention that gigantic, glowing, orb of nukular fire in the sky, well, you're either hiding something or you're really stupid. Veeshir · July 15, 2009 11:34 AM Post a comment
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We of a certain age also recall predictions over three decades ago of the global cooling warnings, in addition to the predictions of worldwide starvation and exhaustion of natural resources well before the year 2000. We have enough evidence in the past 40 years that Cassandras who rely on computer models do not necessarily have a good track record.
An additional factor is bad data, such as a temperature sensor located in an place that goes from rural to suburban/urban in 20 years. That sensor will give a temperature increase irrespective of overall global warming.
I have forgotten more math and science than Al Gore ever learned, which causes me to guffaw each time the Goracle opens his mouth.
Regarding climate change, recall the Kingston Trio's Merry Minuet: "They're rioting in Africa, They're starving in Spain, There's hurricanes in Florida, and Texas needs rain."
The climate predictions from a half century ago are still valid.