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January 08, 2009
Hamas Is Winning
The leaders of Hamas say they are winning the war in Gaza. They also say they hope to get a truce in 48 hours. A senior Hamas source in Gaza says the group is optimistic about the prospect of securing a ceasefire with Israel in the near future.Meanwhile the Israelis who Hamas says are losing the battle say they would prefer the fighting to go on a while longer as they have some objectives hey would still like to meet. Senior Israel Defense Forces officers expressed doubt over whether military efforts alone could bring regime change in the Gaza Strip, and said the army is far from achieving optimal conditions in the Strip to implement an exit strategy. There is more news along those lines. Israel has yet to exhaust all of its military options in the Gaza Strip and could step up its actions against Hamas if the government decides to press forward with Operation cast Lead, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said Thursday during a tour of the South.Translation: the Army still has some tricks up its sleeve and may need more time to accomplish its goals. It sure sounds to me like the Israelis are losing. They want the war to go on longer. And of course Hamas who is winning wants it to end ASAP. It sure sounds like Lebanon 2006 where the Arabs never lose and the Israelis never win. Another great victory for the mighty Palestinians. Meanwhile, the bankrollers of Hamas and Hizballah Iran is pulling in its claws. They are advising their jihadists that suicide bombings and other militant activity against Israel is not the way to go. Iran's top leader has banned hard-line Iranian volunteers from leaving the country to carry out suicide bombings against Israel.Maybe like getting them to surrender ASAP? This is definitely a new direction for the Iranian regime. I wonder why they have had a change of heart. Did some one tell them that although they may not be interested in war that war is interested in them? Some one certainly whispered something in their ear. Perhaps low oil prices are keeping them on a short leash. The correlation of forces does not appear to be to their advantage. Did I mention oil prices? After a recent spike up to near $50 a bbl prices have fallen back to around $42 a bbl. Some analyst estimate that Iran needs prices near $90 a bbl. To keep its economy afloat. Obviously prices are around 1/2 that. And Iran is having trouble buying diesel fuel. Iran has reportedly bought three million barrels of gas oil from a Singapore trader to compensate for a loss of supplies from India.Ah yes. A price dispute. I think that means Iran is not paying its bills. Another sign of Iran's money troubles is that it is proposing an to end gasoline subsidies. Faced with falling oil prices and a weakening economy, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad presented a plan to Parliament on Tuesday that would scrap energy subsidies, a significant change in a major oil-producing country where gasoline is sold for 36 cents a gallon.Gasoline prices on the world market are now running about $1.10 a gallon. That would mean a factor of three increase in price. And yes - until the economy adjusts that would represent a rather severe hit to the Iranian economy. And it is not just gasoline. Electricity is now sold at just 6 cents per 10 kilowatt-hours. The plan would abolish all government subsidies for things like heating gas, gasoline, electricity and water within the next three years and allow prices to reach international levels.I think what the economic geniuses of Iran are finally figuring out is that oil socialism is not a viable long term economic strategy. And of course all that impacts their ability to fight proxy wars. Even proxies want to get paid. After the war in Lebanon in 2006, Iran opened its checkbook in an effort to mollify the Hizballh supporters who had taken a severe financial beating from the war. Israel did some serious urban renewal and the Iranians had to pay to keep their clients. Facing severe economic strains at home such a move, very unpopular in Iran in 2006, may be impossible for them in Gaza. Such difficulties may explain why Hizballah has refrained from joining in the current war in any more than a token way. Cross Posted at Power and Control posted by Simon on 01.08.09 at 10:13 AM |
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Barring a major battery breakthrough, we probably have at least 40 more years of petroleum-based transportation.
The following technological refinements will be used to wring more miles/kilometers out of every barrel
- smaller vehicles. This is obvious considering the traffic jams full of single-passenger vehicles.
Note how many enclosed and semi-enclosed trikes are coming out - more stable and comfortable than a motorcycle, but with a 2 passenger maximum.
Piaggio's MP3 - while still looking like a motor-scooter - is selling out. And after years touting "concept vehicles" other manufacturers have introduced street models.
Although hybrid technology can add to the cost of a small vehicle, trikes will likely lead the electric trend since they can go farther per charge.
- further hybrid/recovery/efficiency systems. One small start-up in Israel generates enough electricity from exhaust heat to separate water into hydrogen and oxygen - which are then injected into the cylinders of the engine. There is more complete combustion = more energy and less pollutants. And there is no need to wait for a chain of hydrogen stations to open up - it's generated on-board.
Recovery of waste heat and kinetic energy, new ceramic engine linings, hydrogen/oxygen injection - all are just starting to be explored.
- other DIY fuels. We will see more biodiesel and straight-oil conversions. It is relatively easy to modify most cars to accommodate a mixed fuel base that includes lower-grade petroleum products and cooking oil. And if you're already driving a trike instead of an SUV, a gallon of cooking oil goes a long way...
There is still room for a lot of incremental efficiency increase in current technology.