"If This Campaign plays to type, McCain will hit an absolute home run tonight and the narrative will shift yet again."

So says the Corner's Rich Lowry.

With a buildup like that I guess I've gotta watch.

Right now I'm making blackened catfish with red beans and rice.

You know, a Southern flavored dinner for a Southern flavored debate.

Gimme a break; I'm in Michigan now.

Maybe I'll have some time between bites to watch the narrative unfold....

08:57 -- The narratives are warring on both CNN and Fox, and the debate hasn't even started yet. I guess you could call this live-pre-debate blogging.

Damn, that catfish smells great!

And the kids in the hood are driving up and down the street honking their horns. Not in anticipation of the debate, mind you. They're honking in anticipation of tomorrow's Michigan versus Wisconsin game.

9:03 -- Lehrer begins by creatively switching from foreign affairs to the economy by means of a 1952 Eisenhower quote, and starts by asking Obama about the economy.

He's giving a speech.

Quite credibly McCain stresses the work involved in successfully coming up with a plan.

Obama is trying to reframe the issue as involving "deregulation" and saying he told them so. Incredible.

I need more catfish.

9:10 --McCain reminds everyone that he also said he told them so, but comes back quoting Eisehower with a real stinger about D-Day (brilliant) and accountabilty.

Obama is stuttering.

9:13 -- McCain is talking like a president. Obama is making speeches.

Wow.

Sincerity debates phoniness. I didn't think I'd see that tonight.

9:17 -- Pork barrel spending! McCain tears Obama a new one, and Obama looks defensive. Rope a dope fails. McCain is barely warmed up.

9:20 -- Asked about their differences in tax policy, McCain says he wants tax cuts, and reminds people that the corporate tax rate is 35%, and notes that Ireland's is 11%. Obama says businesses actually pay lower taxes because of "loopholes." (What? Like not being taxed on losses?)

Obama slams the market solution.

McCain calls this an example of "walking the walk versus talking the talk." Reminds of his record against wasteful spending.

McCain is relying on his record and his ethos, and it is working. Obama looks like a confused man trying to sound profound.

Now Obama is bashing the oil companies.

Please.

9:30 -- I'm captivated, and my catfish is getting cold.

But it's looking more and more as if Lowery was right about the narrative.

9:38 -- Obama tried the old "McBush" meme, and instead of being rattled, McCain saw it as a golden opportunity to contrast his position with Bush. And he reminded everyone about his position on Iraq, and how he was proved right.

Now Obama is talking about his original opposition to the war. (What was Obama then? State assemblyman or something?)

9:43 -- Glenn has a roundup of lots of other live bloggers with faster fingers than mine.

I'm just licking off the catfish juice.

9:49 -- I love the way McCain smiles when he's hit. Remarkable.

9:52 -- Ann Althouse also noticed McCain's calmness -- no glee -- under pressure:

McCain gesticulates and smiles. Obama looks a little pissed off and interrupts a few times with the muttered phrase "That's not true."

Brilliant. Just brilliant.

10:05 -- They went from the bracelets from mothers of sons who gave their lives (McCain wears one; Obama said he has one) to Afghanistan, to Iran.

Obama stressed Afghanistan and the Taliban, while McCain sees linkage in the overall war.

McCain says that opposes unconditional talks. Obama talks about direct diplomacy and cites Kissinger.

(McCain is again unfazed, with that little smirk.)

After Obama's speech, McCain retorts, "I'm not going to set the White House visitor schedule before I'm president; I don't even have a seal yet!"(That's the line of the evening, I think.)

He got Obama to stutter again. (Pointing out that talks with Iran legitimize their insane remarks about wiping Israel off the map.)

10:18 -- Russia. McCain again shows his strength. I look Putin in his eyes and I see a K a G and a B.

I think if anyone can make Putin stutter, McCain can.

(He's now got the Democrats gnashing their teeth the way the right wing of the Republican Party once did. Add he does it with a smile!)

10:21 -- Noting the danger, McCain stresses the importance of standing with the Ukraine. Obama follows, first agreeing, then nitpicking.

That's the pattern with a lot of this debate. McCain takes a strong position on something, then Obama agrees and tries to undercut it. (It's not man to man; it's almost leader-follower. I'd be tempted to pity Obama, except he wants to be president.)

10:29 -- Stephen Green is drunkblogging, and Bruce Carroll is Vicodinblogging (because he has some).

So why don't I get any?

10:35 - Flashback to Stephen Green: 8:09PM Pardon me as I wet myself while McCain spanks Obama over his promise to negotiate with Iran "without preconditions." It's like gay porn, only this stuff turns me on. (Sorry, Bruce!)

Now why didn't I think of that?

It's over, and I think McCain creamed Obama.

I did miss a pronunciation issue, though:

Why does Obama pronounce Taliban as "Tal-ih-ban"?? It makes it sound like a Japanese restaurant.

Pah-ki-stan, Tal-ih-ban. Ghen-gis Khan. Obama, Kerry.

10:46 -- The analysts are having at it, and no one seems to think Obama won, but they think he held his own. I think the differences in levels of experience and character was overwhelming. And McCain doesn't need to say anything.

Stephen Green:

7:58PM Do a shot every time McCain says "I have a record." He doesn't *need* to say, "And my opponent doesn't."

10:46 -- CNN calls it "a tie," and they're saying McCain engaged in name-dropping. Whatever.

I think McCain is so much more experienced, has so much more common sense, is so much more grounded, that it wasn't even a contest.

But they keep saying Obama "held his own" Held his own? Why are his supporters even saying that? He's ahead in the polls, right? He wants to be president of the United States and Commander in Chief of the most powerful armed force in the world, right?

To say he "held his own" sounds almost belittling.

UPDATE: Glenn Reynolds has a poll up. McCain is winning overwhelmingly. (10 to 1 the last time I looked.)

Meanwhile, CNN is nitpicking over minor verbal flubs of interest mainly to snarky political junkies.

MORE: On Fox, Giuliani just made a good point -- that "neither one of them demagogued on the economy."

And a couple of excerpts from the Corner:

Regarding McCain's "I Don't Even Have a Seal Yet" remark, Kathryn Jean Lopez says,

I bet most people watching don't know the backstory.

Watching at home here in NYC with her husband and two little babies: "I hope I am not assessing out of my pro-McCain bias, but McCain has had Obama on the defensive 90% of the time. And Obama is rambling on so much- good lord I can barely follow him!"

It will be interesting to see how ordinary voters react.

MORE: Here's Ed Morrissey:

McCain kept Obama on defense all night long, made Obama lose his composure, and maintained his own in a very presidential performance. This one is a clear win for McCain.

UPDATE: Glenn Reynolds links this analysis at Politico (arguing that McCain "gave one of his strongest debate performances ever") -- although Glenn didn't think McCain's performance was his best:

I'd say he gave a B-level performance and Obama was a B-minus. Edge to McCain, but not by a lot, and neither candidate distinguished himself. Both, I suspect, were tired and distracted from the economic events.

McCain likes a fight, he sparkles when he gets one, and he won't back down. He's turned Romney's Iraq "timetable" remark from a war over the words into something resembling a fistfight he provoked. Romney thinks it's about the words, but I think it's more along the lines of a duel.

Much as I hate to use the overwrought "pit bull" analogy, I know the breed well, and just this once I'll use it. McCain reminds me of a pit bull whose tail is wagging because an aggressive (but clueless) non-pit bull was dumb enough to accept a challenge. This is not fair, but fairness is irrelevant in the case of aggressive combatants. (McCain is no angel, but Romney is no innocent choir boy.)

I hope the pit bull with lipstick does as well!

MORE: For those who missed the debate, Dean Esmay has the video.

And Dave Price thinks McCain missed an excellent opportunity to bring up Bill Ayers:

I also think that when Obama rather snottily brought up the humorous "bomb Iran" song and some hyperbolic comments regarding N Korea, McCain should have countered with the Ayers card. Obama looked petulant and petty anyway with his "coming from you" remark, but pointing out that Obama had some level of relationship with an unrepentant terrorist that bombed the Capitol would have been devastating as Obama's complaint centered on McCain's national security judgment.

Also, last night was the first time ordinary people in middle America had a chance to see McCain and Obama debate and form impressions. McCain might not have wanted to come off as going straight for the jugular on their first date.

MORE: Just for the record, I don't think McCain held off bringing up Bill Ayers because he feared being arrested by the Obama Truth Squads.

MORE: Don't miss Jennifer Rubin's "Who Won the Debate":

on foreign policy McCain simply hit it out of the ballpark. He again and again came back to Obama's opposition to the surge and to his willingness to meet without conditions with Ahmadinejad -- who, he reminded viewers, has called Israel a "stinking corpse." Likewise, he skewered Obama for his initial response on the invasion of Georgia that both sides should "show restraint."

How did they hold up on temperament? Obama seemed peeved, and a number of observers - including Juan Williams and Alex Castellanos -- agreed. McCain was occasionally funny and poked at Obama but showed none of the nastiness or ill-temper which his foes identify.

But the "gotcha" may have been from Obama -- who eight times conceded that McCain was "right" on a point. McCain rushed out a video capturing a number of these.

UPDATE: Here's the recipe Donna asked about in the comments:

Cajun Blackened Fish Recipe Cajun blackened fish was made famous by New Orleans chef Paul Prudhommes. In this blackened fish recipe, fillets of fish are coated with a blend of herbs and spices, and pan-fried in butter.

1 teaspoon paprika
1 teaspoon dried thyme
1 teaspoon dried oregano
1 teaspoon freshly ground black pepper
1/4 teaspoon cayenne pepper
1/4 teaspoon garlic powder
1/4 teaspoon salt

1.5 pounds fillets

6 tablespoons butter (more or less)
1/4 red bell pepper, thinly sliced
1/4 yellow bell pepper, thinly sliced
1/2 green bell pepper, thinly sliced

Place all the herbs and spices in a bowl; mix well. Dip the fish fillets into the mixture to coat lightly.

Heat 2 tablespoons butter in a large skillet; add the peppers and sautée until softened. Remove the peppers to a warm platter and cover lightly with foil to keep warm.

Add 4 tablespoons butter to the skillet, heat until sizzling. Add the coated fish fillets and fry over medium heat for about 4 minutes on each side, until browned and cooked thru.

Transfer the blackened fish to a warmed serving platter and surround with the fried peppers.

Recipes, BTW, are not to be followed to the letter, but they are intended to give a general idea. Eat your mistakes and keep practicing.

The key is mixing the spices. I make a lot, store it in a jar with a screwcap, and dust the fish heavily before cooking. You don't have to cook the peppers if you don't have them, but cooking garlic in the butter ahead of the fish helps. Experiment!