Interesting statement from Bush. The C17’s are on the way delivering supplies and will continue to do so. Also those US naval vessels will be used to deliver supplies. This is a message that under the rubric of delivering humanitarian supplies that we are sending air and naval support. Russian forces would be well advised not to contest US navy going to Poti and that port blockage will be lifted. Also with Secretary Rice going to Tbilisi they will stop ant drive to the capital since we have the excuse to defend our Secretary of State. These moves are top prevent Russia from completing a drive to Tbilisi and to regain control of the east west highway.

Russia has been advised in this manner to withdraw its forces and not get in the way. This protects the BZC pipeline, which is south of Tbilisi.

Russia uses the excuse of demilitarization to continue its operations and the US will use humanitarian supplies to gain access and prevent Russia domination.

And how is the US Navy going to get access to the Black Sea ? Turkey is an ally in name only and it controls the entrance. They'll never let US ships pass, lest it anger their good friend Vladimir the Terrible.

It is a humanitarian mission so Turkey will not block the Black Sea route. I am sure the are agreements that cover this, plus Turkey still wants to be part of the EU,

It is a humanitarian mission so Turkey will not block the Black Sea route. I am sure the are agreements that cover this, plus Turkey still wants to be part of the EU.

RAH And how is the US Navy going to get access to the Black Sea ? Turkey is an ally in name only and it controls the entrance. They'll never let US ships pass, lest it anger their good friend Vladimir the Terrible.
You might check some historical atlases to see how much of present Ukraine and Russia were part of the Ottoman Empire.The Turks and Russians are not exactly bosom buddies.

One exception to that statement. One of my grad school classmates in the 80s was a Turk who was the grandson of a White Russian general. Turkey was a better alternative than the USSR to his grandfather.

Turkey has been a US ally for 50 years. They are a member of NATO. Turkey is formally allied with the US. I am sure we have bilateral agreements that allow missions for humanitarian reasons. This allows Turkey to say they have to let in US ships to the Russian's and they are not involved in the effort against Russia. Plus Turkey has an interest in the eastern Turkish minority enclave and had a vessel station of the port of Batumi, that the Russian have not challenged.

We challenged the Russians with the initial flight returning the Georgian brigade. They blinked. Moscow knows what war with America means, and they'll do almost anything to avoid it.

There is one problem though, the commander of the 38th army. It looks to me like the man acted on his own initiative, presenting the Kremlin with a fiat accompli. Putin thought he could take advantage of the situation, only to see the Georgians fight harder and more effectively than he thought they could or would, and the world react more strongly than he thought they could, or would.

So it's announce a cease-fire and get the 38th back under central control. But, the 38th appears to be ignoring Kremlin directives, and shredding the cease-fire. Condi will go to Georgia with security. She goes it's very likely she will come under fire. She does, even if she isn't so much as wounded it means war.

Which means Congress will reconvene and the question of a declaration of war will be addressed. Congress has nothing to say about this because it is an emergency, and emergencies trump latte lawyers.

Y`all *want* a war with Russia? lol, its strange to see the logic of lemmings in play. The "hardfighting" Georgians do not exist, you know, its all imagination. They have lost airsupremacy, sea-supremacy and have pulled back to defend Tiblisi leaving the rest of the country open. If the Russians wanted to they could make it Berlin 45 or or the modern Serbian war. They could level Tblisi using missiles and serious bombs. Reality calling, hello?

Reality is that the Russians are in a very tough situation.

They are dying off at the rate of 1 million a year. Life expectancy is declining.

And if America gets serious about drilling for oil and exploiting its other oil resources Russia's exports are going to nose dive in terms of dollar value.

Russia is about as useful to America as the Saudis. A marriage of convenience. It looks like being Russia's friend is no longer convenient. More trouble than benefit. I would say divorce proceedings have begun.

Reality calling? The Russians stopped the advanced since the Georgians retreated to Mtskheta, which had a good defensive position. Georgians still have tanks and communications probably got better with the new troops delivered.

Russia controls the road to the east but with the leaders of Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Ukraine and France in Tbilisi it was too political risky to go for the capital.

The Russian expected a small military and Georgia to fold easily. They did not fold. Russia took casualties in Tskhinvali. They wanted reinforcements before going further, which were on the way with another 50 tanks. But they lost the momentum. Russia does not dare try to shoot down a C 17, which is slow and vulnerable because we may react with F 18’s.

Getting a naval vessel under the humanitarian excuse into the Black Sea is a first, I believe. The Russian would be very foolish to attack a US navy vessel doing a humanitarian mission bad mistake both in PR and militarily.

This is classic brinkmanship and Bush does play that game well. He is an excellent poker player. Russia will blink and withdraw and try to win concessions on the diplomatic front, which we will allow.

There is one problem with your scenario Simon, Russia may not be in charge in Georgia. Not of the 38th army. We are seeing a pattern of insubordination that bodes ill for Russia both now and in the future. The soldiers of the 38th are acting like outright brigands, and that is not a good sign. If the 38th does what I'm expecting them to do, you're going to see troops from Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, and Moldova reinforcing Ukraine, and they aint gonna wait for NATO.

Never forget, Russia is not the old Soviet Union. Shit, the old Soviet Union was never the old Soviet Union.

Alan,

Yes. It does look like the 38th is freelancing. OTOH Russia can stop it by cutting off supplies.

Alan, If you want a big soap box write up your thoughts and e-mail them to me.

My e-mail is on the sidebar at Power and Control. Or send me some hints and I will write something and give you credit.

Simon,

I'm going by gut feeling on this question. Keep your eyes on what the 38th does, in contrast to what Moscow says they will do.

On cutting off supplies, the Kremlin may not be able to. The Georgian may be able to take advantage of a lack of supplies? Other military and civilian leaders might protest, and make threats against the central authorities. Moscow's position regarding the republics and oblasts etc. may be more delicate than we know.

For all we know Putin may well be riding the tiger, and the tiger is getting a bit peckish.

I don't think Russia is the country some people think it is.