Classical Values :: Some One Got Taught A Lesson

August 13, 2008

Some One Got Taught A Lesson

The war is over in Georgia and it looks, from the oulines of the peace agreement that Georgia won. I predicted that this would be the outcome in Perhaps They Miscalculated and Winning. Let us start with a report by the Volokh Conspiracy on the main points of the agreement.

Russian agreements to conclude all military operations, return Russian armed forces to the line preceding the beginning of operations and not use force again in Georgia.

In return, Georgia would return its armed forces to their normal and permanent locations.

Both sides would provide free access for humanitarian assistance; and international consideration of the issues of South Ossetia and Abkhazia would be undertaken.

Now compare this to Russia's stated objectives at the start of the conflict.

MOSCOW, August 12 (RIA Novosti) - Russia's foreign minister said on Tuesday that the country rules out negotiations with Georgia's president, and insisted that Georgia must no longer have a peacekeeping presence in breakaway South Ossetia.

Well isn't that interesting. Yesterday they were insisting that Georgia leave South Ossetia.

Today in the peace agreement all troops will return to their positions they occupied before the start of the conflict. That does not sound like Russia met that objective.

Four days on from Georgia's ground and air offensive to seize control of South Ossetia, Russian forces have forced a Georgian retreat from the province in what Moscow has labeled a major peace enforcement operation to prevent further incursions.

Sergei Lavrov, speaking at a joint news conference with Finland's foreign minister in Moscow, highlighted the severity of the crimes committed by Georgian forces in their attack on South Ossetia, and said Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili can no longer be considered a partner.

I can't find a link now, but at the start of the conflict Russians were asking the Georgian President to step down and that he be tried for war crimes. That is not going to happen.

What else was Russia saying?

"We can hardly agree to this, as it implies that Georgian so-called peacekeepers should be in South Ossetia... Georgian peacekeepers cannot be there. They committed crimes, shooting their own [Russian] colleagues, with whom they were serving."

And yet, agree to it they did. A return of all forces to their positions at the start of the conflict. And still people say the Russians won and met their objectives. I don't think so.

What most people fail to realize is that a fighting retreat is not the same as a defeat. In mobile positional warfare what you want to do is to draw the opposition in an untenable position so that you can deliver a counter stroke when he is fully extended. Draw out the supply lines and then attack the enemy's rear where he is the weakest and his supply lines are the most vulnerable. Avoid smashing into the spear head. Break the shaft.

My take is that the Georgians had done that and were about to deliver a counter stroke. What do you do at such a point if you want to keep looking good in the world of public opinion? Declare victory and prepare to beat feet.

"The best thing would be for him to resign," Lavrov said, while stressing that Russia has "no plans to force anyone from power - this is not in our political culture at all."

Yeah. Sure. Tell it to the Marines. That was not their position at the beginning.

What does the president of Georgia have to say?

Saakashvili said he did not want to leave "any doubt" about whether Georgia's territorial integrity is up for discussion. "This is out of the question," he said.

He said he would welcome an international process for security arrangements.

"Georgia needs to get back to normal," he said. "For all the people who are suffering out there, this is good news."

In Washington, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice said: "I wanted to make very clear that the United States stands for the territorial integrity of Georgia, for the sovereignty of Georgia; that we support its democratically elected government and people, and are reviewing options for humanitarian and reconstruction assistance to Georgia. But the most important thing right now is that these military operations need to stop."

And what would the territorial integrity and internationally recognized borders include? South Ossetia.

Here is more of what the Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili had to say.

Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili said at an early morning news conference with Sarkozy his country would not allow its territorial integrity to be put into doubt under any peace agreement.

"The territorial integrity and belonging of South Ossetia and Abkhazia to Georgia can never be put under doubt."

A key reference to negotiation on the "future status" of two rebel zones in Georgia was cut from the peace plan, they said, with talks to focus instead on how to ensure "security and stability" there.

Why would Russia give up its ambitions to keep South Ossetia if it was winning the war? It makes no sense. Let me repeat a paragraph I posted in Perhaps They Miscalculated.

However, they miscalculated by not announcing in advance "limited objectives". Now it will look like they have been defeated by a fifth rate power with American friends. Bad for morale. Bad for their world image.

So far the Russian spin machine seems to be working well. Most people believe Russia met its objectives and Georgia got taught a lesson.

I think Russia got taught a lesson. Coming up against American trained troops is no cake walk. Russia might be able to defeat such troops if it applied enough power but it would be at an unacceptable cost.

Some one got taught a lesson. I don't think it was the Georgians.

H/T Instapundit

Cross Posted at Power and Control

posted by Simon on 08.13.08 at 07:21 AM

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://classicalvalues.com/cgi-bin/pings.cgi/7032

Comments

Hi Simon. I hope you are correct. No one else in the Bsphere seems to think so.

How does Putin want the US election to be affected? Does he care?

dr kill · August 13, 2008 07:51 AM

The Bsphere is too much in thrall to the idea of the all powerful Russians.

They were about to lose their Army. They said no mas. Not the actions of a winner.

M. Simon · August 13, 2008 07:58 AM

Your view is overly optimistic. The Russians have not accepted to give up South Ossetia, on the contrary, they demand that Georgia give it up. And BTW, the Russians don't even live up to the armistice, since their troops continue to conquer more Georgian territory.

Peter · August 13, 2008 08:23 AM

Peter,

The Russians have not officially accepted to give up South Ossetia.

And yes. The continued advance of the Russian troops is problematic. If it continues the war will be on again.

The result IMO will be to make the Russian defeat public instead of just insider knowledge.

M. Simon · August 13, 2008 09:12 AM

One other thing to note:

Putin has been off the world stage for the last few days. Busy? Visiting his family? "Health" reasons?

M. Simon · August 13, 2008 09:15 AM

Aside from the fact that there would be no good way to verify, it would be interesting to have intrade contracts predicting the Russian force levels in South Ossetia and Abkhazia in a couple of weeks.

Daran · August 13, 2008 10:34 AM

Reading Teddy Roosveldt's biography. In it, TR's Secretary of State, John Hay, is quoted:

"It is very difficult dealing with the Russians, who have raised mendacity to a science."

Same-o, same-o.

Otherwise, I hope you're right. They did put the fear into their neighboring little states that tanks could roll. I suspect that Bush offerred the same type of help that Reagan offered the Afghans - advanced light weapons that would make continued Russian presence extremely uncomfortable.

That should bolster the Poles, Estonians, and Ukranians, etc that the US will help those who help themselves.

I do expect that the Europeans will be ordering lots on new nuclear power plants after this. They should have listened to Reagan about Gazprom.

Whitehall · August 13, 2008 01:29 PM

The US stopped short of Baghdad in Gulf War I. Political pressure and other factors made that decision, not military defeat. You might be reading a bit much into things although I really hope you are right.

rjschwarz · August 13, 2008 01:36 PM

"The US stopped short of Baghdad in Gulf War I."

Indeed. That's what we call "snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. It's why we ended up back there a decade later.

Sure, we kicked Saddam out of Kuwait and established a no-fly zone, but for all intents and purposes, he was unbeaten. The war was still on all those years.

Citizen Grim · August 13, 2008 04:51 PM

as a war weary american citizen. i have to wonder after seeing our president rubbing elbows w/ vladimir putin @ the oplympics. if this is not another war perpretrated by political motivations. how ironic is it our incumbent preisdential party are running a campaign based on miltitary preparedness.(mccain) in order for our leader to justify their camapaign they need to keep us living in fear. in order to be a champion of war u need to have a compareable foe. (who better than our old arch enemy?)the funny thing is if our military wasn't already stretched thin in a unavaoidable war we would be able to properly respond. truth is all of our enemies see we are @ our weakest point. our economy is recessing,our military is depeleted, & our standing on the world stage is very wobbly. my point is even if this is not a not bush scheme it's still a bush scheme. it plays right into the hands of the mccain campaign. just like after 7 years of war in iraq they want us to leave right @ the end of his presidency, oil is mysteriously dropping, after a 6 year rise, & the president of georgia just said on cnn "he believes the war is about NEW WORLD ORDER!" my fellow american brothers & sisters don't be Affraid. be Aware!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! but Beware!!!!!!!

citizen x · August 13, 2008 07:37 PM

incumbent preisdential party are running a campaign based on miltitary preparedness. (mccain)

And yet Obama agrees with McCain. That has got to hurt.

if our military wasn't already stretched thin

Haven't you heard? Te surge is over. Troop levels are being reduced. And we now have an army full of combat hardened veterans.

our economy is recessing,

Well no. It hasn't stopped growing. Growth has just slowed some and the dollar is on the rise. You really need to keep up.

the war is about NEW WORLD ORDER!"

Well yes. It is about the neo-con dream. Self government for everyone. The end of despotism in the world. New World Order indeed.

M. Simon · August 13, 2008 09:00 PM

"in order to be a champion of war u need to have a compareable foe."

In order to be convincing in a debate, you need to not write like a semi-literate 12 year old sending a text message.

Cybrludite · August 15, 2008 05:34 AM

American planes are now arriving, bringing in "humanitarian supplies". No doubt they're also filling out some SpecOps shopping lists.

What I want to know is how the Russians are doing controlling their new border inside Georgia. How easy is it for small teams of commandos to sneak through and get behind the Russians and blow up logitistics convoys? Do you suppose that a lesson or two learned from AQ's campaign against the US is being taught to the Georgians?

The Russians failed as soon as they stopped. Had they simply taken the entire country and closed the borders, this could have been 1968 all over again. Instead, they went halfway. I would bet they are starting to pay pretty heavily for this.

K T Cat · August 15, 2008 10:54 AM