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August 14, 2008
On The Gori - Tblisi Road
If this video report is true, and we should know in a few days, it proves the Russians have not changed at all. Murdering bastards. The New York Times has a report: Of gripping importance to the Georgian government now, Western diplomats and Georgian officials said, is whether the agreement gave the Russians room to interpret the occupation of Gori and a zone around the city as agreed upon in the cease-fire, thus allowing them to control the main east-west road through the country, isolating the capital, Tbilisi, from the Black Sea coast and cutting off important supply routes.What ever the Russians have gained short term I believe their position in the long term is worse than when they started. Compare how the Russians will be treated long term in Georgia vs how the US is now seen in Iraq. So what is next? I expect long term pressure by American forces to get the Russians out of Georgia. I expect mutual defense pacts among the states ringing Russia. I expect American trainers to join many of the Armies of those states. I expect they will be buying American arms even if they cost more than Russian equipment. Why support your enemy? So who won? Long term the Georgians. They now have many more friends than they used to have. What we know now is that the Russians have not changed their behavior. They can't be trusted. And their armed forces behave more like a gang of criminals than a professional military. H/T Information Dissemination which has more links and a good discussion of the video and links. posted by Simon on 08.14.08 at 03:06 PM
Comments
The Russians may not want the other satellite nations, considering just how energy-strategic Georgia is; this may be one giant controlling gamble by Russia to control said energy. I hope this doesn't turn into another Chechnya situation, for the sake of the Georgian populace, but it probably will. There are plenty of folks who will flock to Georgia just for the chance to whack some Russian soldiers. Pardo · August 14, 2008 04:25 PM They now have many more friends than they used to have. Like who? Did they gain any friends that might actually help fight? Anonymous · August 14, 2008 05:28 PM They now have many more friends than they used to have. Like who? Did they gain any friends that might actually help fight? guy · August 14, 2008 05:28 PM It's a decent question, guy, but not so dire as one might suppose. In the cyberwar to shut down communications the Estonians have send computer defense experts (and they are among the best). Many western nations had just finished a training exercise there and several ex-Soviet nations are sending "advisors" who may be doing more than advising. Relief aid is coming in. It wouldn't be that much in a full out military conflict, but in this move/countermove struggle, it might be significant. Assistant Village Idiot · August 14, 2008 07:25 PM Just me or did that Russian convoy look like the fattest easiest target ever? NJSoldier · August 15, 2008 12:03 PM Just me or did that Russian convoy look like the fattest easiest target ever? That is what it looked like to me. Esp with the surrounding hills. But I'm Navy and didn't want to speak out of turn. M. Simon · August 15, 2008 02:20 PM Back in the day, I was on a Marine FAC Team. Our first choice was always 16" naval gunfire from a BB. A flight or two of Harriers, F-18's or A-10's would eliminate that convoy in minutes. Last time I saw a convoy like that it was called "the Highway of Death." NJSoldier · August 15, 2008 03:00 PM Post a comment
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I am cautiously optimistic in the long run for the countries bordering Russia, which remains a resource-rich, social-capital poor state. There is precedent in both directions: Russia 1948 absorbing small countries it could defeat; Russia 1988 losing small countries it could defeat. Both remain possible, especially in the short run.
Georgia is not an innocent in this, though. They took a calculated risk to shake a little freer of Russia and may have gotten a worse roll of the dice than expected. Russia responds with a calculated risk of its own, game still in progress.
We regard Putin as a constant, but this may not be the case. The early Putin was more acetic, with Russia's power as his raison d'etre. Such tyrants are usually more dangerous than those who amass personal fortunes. Putin now has a personal fortune, which is dominated by Russian interests but no longer synonymous with them.