Picken Apart Pickens

Bob Zubrin discusses the T. Boone Pickens plan to replace natural gas electricity with wind based efficiency. He seems a bit weak in understanding how wind and natural gas electricity are complimentary. So I wrote a comment:

Bob,

Evidently you don't know what natural gas is used for in America. It is not for base load, it is for peaker plants. Wind and natural gas are dispatchable in the same time frame. About 15 minutes. So if the wind is blowing you can shut down the peakers. When the wind declines you can start them up again.

In addition distributed wind can supply about 20% of nameplate rating as base load. Not bad since a wind plant delivers about 33% of nameplate rating on average.

Love your flex fuel plan for autos. Your understanding of the electrical generation market indicates further study is required.

==

Let me add here that using natural gas for home heating is its most efficient use. Wind would lower natural gas demand and thus lower heating bills. That would be a good thing.

H/T Instapundit

Cross Posted at Power and Control

posted by Simon on 08.09.08 at 05:03 PM





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Comments

Those who fulminate against wind often do so from the assumption that wind energy advocates are advocating it as a 100% solution. On the contrary, wind is but one of many solutions. As wind energy powers my household electricity, I have put my money where my mouth is.

Gringo   ·  August 9, 2008 08:37 PM

So we have to buy both a gas turbine and a wind turbine (windmill) just in case the wind's not blowing when we need the peaking power? So basically we've doubled up our energy generating cost.

Locomotive Breath   ·  August 10, 2008 09:45 AM

your percentages are optimistic relative to the german experiences, see the EON Wind Report 2005.

anon   ·  August 10, 2008 12:00 PM

your percentages are optimistic relative to the german experiences, see the EON Wind Report 2005.

anon   ·  August 10, 2008 12:01 PM

So we have to buy both a gas turbine and a wind turbine (windmill) just in case the wind's not blowing when we need the peaking power? So basically we've doubled up our energy generating cost.

I can see you have studied the matter in great depth and are an expert.

Too bad you are wrong.

The main cost of natural gas electricity is the fuel. Capital costs are minimal so idle capacity is not very significant.

The main cost of wind is capital and it is figured in to the profit/loss equation.

The various tariffs charged for electricity take each of these means of production into account. The net cost of a combined natural gas/wind system is lower than the cost of natural gas alone esp. given the recent rise in natural gas costs.

It is heartening to see so many people spouting off about something they are totally ignorant about. It gives me faith in the future of the human race.

My mate and I were discussing just such a scenario in another context. Once a bad idea or bit of information is out there people repeat it endlessly. Just to prove how smart and up to date they are.

The NYTs prints drivel, it gets repeated in a hundred other places and suddenly "every one knows" and they can cite sources "proving" their knowledge.

You might want to take a look at the actual experience of Texas. Why do they like wind? A LOT? Because it frees natural gas to sell to other states. They make a profit on the deal even with the extra capital costs.

Fortunately we have a stupid tax in this country. The stupid pay more.

The next thing you will tell me is that drilling for oil will not lower prices in America because it is a world market. By that logic I suppose we should shut down all current oil extraction efforts in the USA because it is a world market. If the USA got 100% of its oil from the world market instead of only 80% prices would not change. Because, you know, it is a world market.

Ah, well.

I hope you tell me that drugs cause addiction. Then I can gut that argument next.

M. Simon   ·  August 10, 2008 01:06 PM

The German experience is that only 1/3 of the average wind generation is available as base load.

Not as good as 2/3s. Still not shabby.

The American experience may be different.

M. Simon   ·  August 10, 2008 01:13 PM

Thank you! Finally, a rational discussion of peaking plants, and where wind energy fits in.
Because individual wind machines do not supply a large amount of power, they are in "farms". This provides non-disruptive downtime for maintenance (try that with a 2000mw base-load plant)for individual turbines, and also provides peaking, as individual units can be put on or off line as needed to meet demand. Presto, no more or many fewer gas or petroleum fired peaking plants, with concurrent savings in fuel usage.

Charlie   ·  August 10, 2008 01:17 PM

Hey, it's his money. Lots of interesting stuff has been bequeathed to us by people who bought or speculated early in a market, or who just didn;t do the economics right, but in the end really helped to bring about some revolutions. The railroads (who, if you look at the returns starting from the first listings of stock, actually have averaged rather pedestrian returns,), steamships, heck, even the current internet is a gift of people overbuilding capacity early leaving us with cheap connections, and themselves a few bucks less.

I agree with most of what bob says in the article (he also addresses a certain thankfulness to picken's capitalistic generosity), and I really like his idea of going to methanol. I wonder if instead of going to hydrogen as a portable fuel, we went to methanol (which would require carbon, hydrogen, and an oxygen supply as feedstocks). I know it's an extra step, and a reduction of efficiency, but the greater ease that would probably exist in converting engines might make it the better way to go.

bellisaurius   ·  August 10, 2008 01:23 PM

Hey, it's his money. Lots of interesting stuff has been bequeathed to us by people who bought or speculated early in a market, or who just didn;t do the economics right, but in the end really helped to bring about some revolutions. The railroads (who, if you look at the returns starting from the first listings of stock, actually have averaged rather pedestrian returns,), steamships, heck, even the current internet is a gift of people overbuilding capacity early leaving us with cheap connections, and themselves a few bucks less.

I agree with most of what bob says in the article (he also addresses a certain thankfulness to picken's capitalistic generosity), and I really like his idea of going to methanol. I wonder if instead of going to hydrogen as a portable fuel, we went to methanol (which would require carbon, hydrogen, and an oxygen supply as feedstocks). I know it's an extra step, and a reduction of efficiency, but the greater ease that would probably exist in converting engines might make it the better way to go.

bellisaurius   ·  August 10, 2008 01:23 PM

Sorry for the double post.

If I can add to your comment about Texas' experience with natural gas, it's important to remember that any alternative fuel supply connected to the grid is a good thing because natural gas is fungible, it can be traded for something else, and since natural gas has a large number of uses (eg feedstock, power, heat), and can be stored, it's a good deal regardless.

bellisaurius   ·  August 10, 2008 01:35 PM

Sorry for the double post.

If I can add to your comment about Texas' experience with natural gas, it's important to remember that any alternative fuel supply connected to the grid is a good thing because natural gas is fungible, it can be traded for something else, and since natural gas has a large number of uses (eg feedstock, power, heat), and can be stored, it's a good deal regardless.

bellisaurius   ·  August 10, 2008 01:35 PM

Nat gas is used for peaking turbines, but is that *all* it is used for in power generation? As it has become more difficult to build coal plants--nuclear plants being almost impossible to get approval for and hydro being fairly scarce--what exactly does a power company use for base load if not nat gas?

My impression is that the highly-efficient combined-cycle plants run *only* on natural gas.

david foster   ·  August 11, 2008 03:04 PM

I can see from your answer to a simple request for information that you have studied how to be an ass and have succeeded admirably.

Locomotive Breath   ·  August 11, 2008 09:14 PM

LB,

I didn't notice any request for information. Perhaps you could clarify. BTW Google is your friend.

M. Simon   ·  August 12, 2008 02:49 AM

David -

My understanding is that power companies use coal for their baseload plants. They don't advertise this, but it's what they do.

See, for example, this article:
http://www.bigstoneii.com/NewsMedia/FactSheets/Facts_BSP2_GenerationProject.asp

Eric   ·  August 13, 2008 01:48 PM

My request was that you verify what I thought I understood and that is if you are going to use both gas turbines AND wind for peaking you have to install full peaking generating capacity for both because you may need to do ALL your peaking from gas when the wind isn't blowing or, if you get lucky, vice versa. An intelligent and civil discussion on the relative merits and cost might have followed. But didn't.

Google is, in fact, my friend. I have now realized why you have been banned from commenting on so many blogs.

I'm going to return the favor.

Locomotive Breath   ·  August 14, 2008 07:50 AM

LB,

Google is your friend. I research what interests me.

Banned from so many blogs? Well it hasn't impeded me at all. You got a blog? I never heard of it.

But tell you what. Search - Vincent Page Symposium.

And since I'm a nice guy here is a link:

http://www.physicsessays.com/doc/s2005/page_fusion051.pdf

My take? Your Google Fu is fooked.

M. Simon   ·  August 14, 2008 08:56 AM

BTW why don't you start a blog? You might get an occasional commenter to do your research for you.

M. Simon   ·  August 14, 2008 08:59 AM


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