If x = x, but

if some x = y,

is y = all x?

Glad it's not me pulling the trigger.

from swimming freestyle:

"So, who did win this week? It's probably fair to say losers don't issue demands and winners don't accept those demands so readily."

http://swimmingfreestyle.typepad.com

We'll find out who "won" this skirmish in October.

I doubt Maliki's party won many vote with this action...

There is fighting and there is politics.

Of course losers can demand the sky. The question is: can they get it.

The Iraqi government has promised to keep raiding Sadr controlled areas for "criminals". Now it all depends on what their definition of criminals is. I'm betting the definition is not favorable to Sadr.

All that has changed is the operational tempo. Operations against Sadr have not ended.

Sadr's #1 problem is that despite 40,000 "fighters" he couldn't sustain operations long enough for a propaganda (Tet style) victory. Which says he is very weak.

You might also consider who asked for the truce. It wasn't the Iraqi Army. You might also want to take into account that this was a Shia on Shia fight. Not so easy to do. The last time the IA tried it it didn't work well. This speaks volumes about the improvement of the IA.

As I understand it he wanted an absolute truce. Instead what he got was defeat in detail. It will take longer - that is for sure but, it is not the move of a winner. He has to accept his enemies terms.

His loss rate couldn't be sustained but the truce - which as I understand it has not been agreed to, the news reports are still fragmentary - is only a slow down of the operational rate not a cessation.

Of course this may have been a move to boost Barack "the war is lost" Obama. For that to help he had to keep the fighting up for at least two weeks.

The fact that he couldn't do that with 40,000 soldiers shows that he is weaker than estimated or that he can't even manage the will of the Viet Cong/N. Vietnamese. They were willing to destroy an army (their own) for a political victory. The fact that these mopes don't have the nerve for that underscores that they have some very serious morale problems (as you point out).

Politics (communism) is a stronger motivator than religion (Islam).

BTW if you look at actual reports from the Sadr neighborhoods the people were sick and tired of the depredations of Sadr's criminal gang. You know the Islamists don't seem to be able to deliver honest enough government. We see that over and over and over. And still you Chicago Machine Dems still keep your hopes up.

Mookie is kaput.

But you Dems keep putting your hopes in the Iraqi "insurgency". It ain't much but is all you "the war is lost" types have.

Y'all come back now y'heah.

Guess we'll find out in October, M.

I'll count that as your third prediction:

1. McCain will win in November.
2. The U.S. economy isn't in a recession.
3. Sadr's party won't win Basra in October.

Three objective measures of your grasp of reality.

We'll see how you do...

1. MCain in Nov. - absolutely
2. Not in recession yet - I'd have to say that is about 50/50
3. Sadr's Party will not be an armed militia

Re: the economy - microprocessor shipments are up but the logistics industry is down. So there are a lot of mixed signals.

The mortgage industry is not as bad off as it seems. The Fed put up $200 bn to cover liquidity problems in the industry and only $86 bn was subscribed.

The fact that business defaults are not up to even average levels means that businesses have been conservative.

If this works out:

WB-7 First Plasma

expect a boom based on psychology alone.

Note that Wall Street is a leading indicator and the market is holding its own. That means we are probably at least 6 months from a recession. The economy is probably just taking a breather before the next advance.

Unemployment is still below 5%.

But you know how it is: a Republican in office and a strong (relative to the field) Republican running and the papers have to talk the economy down. I wouldn't believe too many of the words written about the economy by the politically interested. Look at the numbers and the trends.

The weak dollar is drawing a lot of manufacturing and agricultural business our way. Not to mention the Euro auto Mfgrs. building plants in the USA - just as the Japanese did. BTW European structural weakness is hidden (at least here) but may show up in the next 6 months. Look at the Southern vs Northern States. Italy especially.

BTW the Euro is not backed by the taxing ability of the Eu. The dollar is tied to that in the US. There is nothing holding the Eu up except faith.

You really need to learn more about the current state of the world economy instead of getting your talking points from e-mails and DKOS.

The Ds have two problems:

1. Hillary is not well liked.
2. Obama will be painted as a closet racist - in fact the Ds (Hillary fans) are already doing that. I'll post the videos in a bit.

Let me add that anecdotal and polling evidence says if Obama is the nominee the Jewish vote is gone. Even third hand connections with Farrakhan are toxic. Wright and his mentor Cone are going to be equally toxic. Right now the Jewish vote which s normally 75/25 for Dems is now 50/50 and the slide has not yet reached bottom. That means NJ, NY, and FL are gone. I believe that is 68 EVs right there. Ohio is gone. Obama will be the nominee and he will be a disaster.

Also all the wack demonstrations planned for the R and D conventions will not help the Ds.

Just some things to think about.

"Sadr's Party will not be an armed militia"

If Sadr's party wins the election in Basra (and elsewhere) in October, the Mahdi Army will indeed cease to be an armed militia...and become an official provincial security force on an equal footing with Maliki's "national" army.

So, no much of a call there, M.

I don't follow Iraqi politics as closely as I do American. I don't read Arabic for one thing.

I have no way of judging except at the most distant level what is going on. I do know that the people in his neighborhood are fed up with thuggery. Will that translate into voting patterns? Beats me.

Arab society glorifies strength, especially in its alpha dogs. Mookie has lost credibility with his metronomic vacillation between peace and war, and will as likely as not end up with his head on a pike.

This appears to be the first big military win for the Iraq government. I think there is no doubt that the process is moving forward.