I don't see it. McCain has had everything break his way since January, and he's running even. Once the Democrats sort themselves out, there will be combined offensive against McCain. He's only doing so well because the media coverage is off his back.

There's still an unpopular President, and unpopular war (however well it's going) and bad economic news (whether or not we have a recession). All of this is bad for Republicans. And the Republican Congressional delegation hasn't helped.

So, I'm not optimistic. It's a long way to November. I'd love to be wrong, but I wouldn't call it for McCain just yet.

On the plus side, the Democrats haven't managed a majority of the popular vote since 1976 (50.1% for Jimmy Carter). They're running a liberal (Obama or the newly liberal Hillary Clinton) that resembles Mondale and Dukakis more than Bill Clinton. And Ross Perot isn't running.

So, maybe that will be enough. One can hope. But I'd like to see McCain's numbers consistently higher than the Democrat before I place any bets.

But Fred Thompson is already President in right wing fantasy land.

Will he and McCain share power after the election, or will Fred get Raptured?

Alphie,

As you know I have a lot of contacts with the Jewish community. My spies tell me they are breaking hard for McCain. That means votes and money.

It will be a few more weeks until the magnitude of the debacle becomes apparent.

So alphie - get back to me in a couple of weeks and tell me how well things are going for the Big O and the Dems.

I look forward to it.

Hold on. Two years ago it was all "Republicans can't loose" talk. Look what happened. Do not discount "white guilt" and young voters. I know young voters have not yet turned out in elections, but it might be different this time.
I am voting for McCain, even though that would make me a "racist" according to BO. I am a white male.

I have several takes based upon comments left here. First of all, I do not see that McCain being even at this point in the game is a bad thing. Mainly because he is cursed with G.W.Bush hatred that has absolutely consumed the left and many moderates (also, be ready for the next Obama implosion coming to a TV near you!). I think he will be our next President, honestly. Second point, I personally think that Fred Thompson would be an awesome VP for McCain if he were younger...I can hear the geriatric jokes with a McCain/Thompson ticket now. McCain needs a young, conservative VP...maybe John Bohner from my home state of Ohio(?) As for the third issue...well, I am glad to hear that Jewish citizens may back a Republican candidate (although a very liberal one). I am, well, astonished that Jewish people support the left when they are the least supportive of Israel...and the right is staunchly supportive of that state. Actually, if anyone hs any insight on that, I would love to hear it. I have wondered that for years.
God Bless the US.

Your spies must be the same rubes AIPAC hires M.

90% of American Jews vote for the Democrats...every single election.

Alphie...why is that? I mean, it's a fact I know, but what is behind the Jewish vote for leftists? I have literally wondered for years and no one can tell me (I am ashamed(?) to say that I am not close to any Jewish people...I know some, but they're not close friends I can ask such a thing). I personally see most liberals, not most Demcrats but liberals, as anti-Semite! I don't understand why that isn't obvious to all. What am I missing?

I would think it has something to do with the phrase "Never Again," JPGR.

A party that giddily ships people they irrationally fear off to camps is only gonna get votes from the crazy Likudniks...a rather small minority here.

JPGR,

It is a historical thing. Republicans were not very friendly to Jews for a very long time. So Jews became Democrats.

Then, like religion, political affiliation is a family thing.

I have been talking to my mother (88) for a long time about that. I give her reason. It doesn't move her. We still love each other and wind up our conversations with "all politicians are crooks" and thus we end without rancor because in the end which crook you support is not a very big deal.

Any way my estimation is that Obama will drive 5% to 10% more Jews to the Rs. Of course a lot more will vote for an R this season than will change their political stripes. However, it may mean that in future elections both parties will be interested in the Jewish vote.

Obama in fact courted Jews by his strong verbal support for Israel in his speech about race so he must already feel the hemorrhaging. It is not just the votes. It is political donations and connections.

alphie,

Your insights into the Jewish community are astounding.

Are you Jewish? I never would have guessed.

On a more personal note my mother is very unhappy this election season. She is a yellow dog Democrat and would never, ever, ever, vote for Obama. She has had numerous black friends over the years and has always been an anti-racist. Her anti-racism is colorblind.

And she doesn't like Hillary much either.

I plan on asking her after the convention what her voting plans are.

White guilt would work better if Obama was a member of a vanilla church.

In any case white guilt seems to work best on upper middle class Democrats. Good for funding and the primary Not good enough to win the general election.

A lot of White guilt is absolved by the scourging of white America by the good Rev. Wright. After the beatings he has handed out a lot of white folks are going to feel a lot less guilty.

BTW if you look at the theology the Rev Wright follows it is not too different from Hitler's just substitute Black for German.

This will come out and make Obama even more unelectable.

You might want to check this out to start:

Spengler.

In fact when this election is done Liberal Nazis will be a very common understanding.

The bleeding has just begun.

The question on every one's mind will be: what did the Democrats know and when did they know it?

Obama is a Trojan horse for the Democrat Party. They just don't know it.

I'm comforted by the fact that the vetting on Obama has started several months before the work out on Kerry began. And the internet is bigger than it was in 2004.

Most amazing election season I have ever been involved in since '68. And I was a Democrat then.

"Obama is a Trojan horse for the Democrat Party. They just don't know it."

We'd all better hope they don't know it.

I've been saying since McCain became the front-runner that I am putting 20% odds on the party that loses this presidential election not being around in any significant form come the 2012 election.

Jews 10% Republican? Well, click on my handle for some statistics from the 2004 election. Or maybe this URL will work:

http://entre_nous.typepad.com/entre_nous/2004/11/bush_voter_demo.html

Bottom line: Bush's share of the Jewish vote was more like 25%, not 10%. And among Orthodox Jews, he actually outpolled Kerry 2 to 1. (Among Reform Jews --- a denomination where rabbis routinely preach liberal dogma and pretend it's Judaism, one reason I switched synagogues --- Bush polled all of 5%.)

Former Belgian,

I belong to one of those 5% congregations so the number was off the top of my head.

Thank you for the correction.

I can tell you the pain is palpable. After a hundred years of supporting black advancement to get repaid like this is a very deep hurt.