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January 28, 2005
I Wish I Was A Better Writer
As it is, I have a hard time balancing flippancy and venom. The more sincerely I feel about something, the more I'm drawn towards shrill peevishness and bilious ranting. Except, of course, when I talk about Leon Kass... I realize that past a certain point, confident self-assurance sounds like arrogant dogmatism. This is counterproductive, but sometimes I just can't help myself. Jay Fox makes some arguments that I have made in the past, but makes them in such a pleasant, heartfelt way, that I just had to share them with you. His primary argument is that we should be thinking about longevity first. Literally. Well, maybe I don't agree entirely with that, but it should certainly be in the top ten. Some of you may wonder why I feel that way. For starters, helping people to stay healthier longer is so self-evidently virtuous as to require no excuses. It angers me that such excuses are even thought necessary in "certain quarters". To live a good life requires, first and foremost, that you have a life to be good WITH. The dead have had done with being good. But the life extension angle, isn't that just a little kooky? We have no proof at all that it's even possible, right? Aren't I just grasping at straws here? Well now, that's the funny thing. We actually DO have evidence that it's possible, at least in lab animals. Heck, it's not just possible, it's a done deal. Worms have had their natural spans trebled, and quintupled. Rats have gained fifty percent. If the rat comes from a truly screwed up strain, prone to a short lifespan, caloric restriction can triple their life expectancy. And we've known how to do this since the 1930's. It's only now that we have the tools to begin exploring the why of it. Given these FACTS, when I hear someone denigrate this type of research as hopeless, or immoral, or doomed to failure, I ask myself where THEIR evidence is...but perhaps I'd better quit while I'm ahead. Here are some things Jay has written that I (mostly) agreed with. Imagine aging has been cured. People no longer grow old. Old people can be restored to youthfulness. The first thing to understand is that death has not been cured. People will still die. Accidents will still happen, as will murder, war, suicide, pneumonia, fatal flu viruses, etc. Even heart attacks, strokes, and cancer will still happen, though far less frequently. It is important to understand this, because we need to be clear about the philosophical and religious aspects of curing aging. People will still die; mortality will still define existence. People will not live forever simply because they no longer have an expiration date. So what's the difference, then? Without aging, people will live a lot longer. 500 years, perhaps 1,000. There wouldn't actually be a hard limit, as there is today. Today, you might have a 50% chance of living to 80, but a 0% chance of living to 130. On the other hand, with aging cured, you might have a 50% chance of living to 500, but a 6% chance of living to 2,000, and a 1% chance of living past 3,000. Why did I ask us to consider the world from this perspective? Well, think back to today's world. We currently live in a world that openly rejects the mere concept of curing aging. We live in a world where it's okay to talk about curing heart disease, or cancer, or Alzheimer's, as long as we don't make people “live forever.” It's okay to let people live 10 years longer, or 20, but 50 years is too much—it's unnatural. As such, we live in a world where it's okay to spend tens of billions of dollars a year to cure cancer, but it would be considered a waste of time and money—indeed, it would be morally wrong—to spend half that much money to cure aging itself If we have a chance to save hundreds of millions of lives, and cure cancer and heart disease at the same time, for less than we currently spend on either cancer or heart research, aren't we obligated morally to carry out that research? Put another way, if aging researchers announced that aging would be cured in 30 years, would we actively try to stop them? Would we actively try to prevent hundreds of millions of people from living longer lives? Would we in fact condemn hundreds of millions of people to die? It's easy sometimes to remove personal responsibility for the misery and suffering of others, by saying that we did not cause that misery. Once aging was cured, and people were living hundreds of years, would we want to go back? Think of antibiotics. They are “unnatural,” just as curing aging would be. Would we want to go back to the days before antibiotics? If not, then why does today's world not want to go forward, into a world where people don't have to die by the tens of millions? ...Knowing that a cure for aging is possible, we must cure aging as fast possible. Looking back at 2004, from the year 2104, we will be ashamed that we did not act faster to save the millions of lives that will be lost by our collective inaction. Let us not allow 2005 or 2006 to be remembered so shamefully. You can read the whole thing here. Where I part company with Mr. Fox, is the notion of moral culpability. Also, though I am convinced that people will eventually live longer, I am not confident as to the actual numbers. Given those minor caveats, there is one thing he says of which I am dead certain. Let me say it again. Looking back at 2004, from the year 2104, we will be ashamed that we did not act faster... SECOND THOUGHTS: From second parties, namely Phil Bowermaster at "The Speculist". He read the essay by Jay Fox and had some observations of his own to make... Our ancestors engaged in a war against death that we're still fighting today. They threw everything they had and everything they could think up at the enemy, and as a result we now have science and medicine and religion and, really, the whole of human culture. They were relentless and tenacious fighters, but (being rational creatures) they understood the limitations of the war they were able to wage. As a group, the clan/tribe/people would fight on until the end of time, making what progress they could against death. But as individuals, it had to be acknowledged that each and every soldier would one day fall to the enemy. That was a terrible thing. An unacceptable thing. But it had to be accepted anyway. Refusing to acknowledge the inevitability of death would have made as much sense as refusing to acknowledge the inevitability of gravity. It was pointless, and you would go crazy if you thought too much about that kind of thing. It's only within the past couple of centuries that human beings have had our first real victories in the war with gravity. Getting to the first hot air balloons, much less to Kitty Hawk, required an enormous paradigm shift on the part of a few visionaries. Only after these heroes showed the rest of the world that gravity could be beaten did the mass of humanity come around to shifting paradigms. That's encouraging, but the "inevitability of death" paradigm is far more entrenched than the "inevitability of gravity" paradigm. There's so much more at stake. To acknowledge that life might go on for decades or centuries longer than we've ever known it to is to kindle a hope that lies hidden in the heart of every human being. You can read the whole thing here. THIRD THOUGHTS: A warm welcome to Instapundit readers... I hope you like what you've read so far, and also hope you'll look around a bit when you're done here. My blog-host Eric and I have very different interests, and though he has been previously instalanched, oh, a few times, this will be my very...first...ever. Have I mentioned how extra-special each and every one of you is to me? Didn't think so. That's why blatant and shameless self-promotion follows. You've been warned... For peevish bile aimed at Leon Kass click on his name up in paragraph two, or go here. For cool Israeli tech with a dash of paranoia try "Barking Dogs". "Bigger Dirigible" looks at the possibility of a government driven lighter-than-air Renaissance. Yeah, I know... If you prefer your science fiction clearly labeled as such, here's a review of "The Golden Age" by John C. Wright. I think he's as good as Charles Stross. Retrospectives on Paul Ehrlich and Jeremy Rifkin have (perhaps too often) graced these pages. Both "Estimated Prophet" and "Birth Of A Notion" are sentimental favorites of mine. "Machine Gun For An Idiot Child" asks the rhetorical question "What would it take to make those two happy?". Bjorn Lomborg supplies a plausible answer. To wrap up our commercial programming, some "Family Values" vignettes, At a conservative estimate, Eric cranks out more than 95% of the bloggage around these parts. Dennis and I sort of lurk in the crannies, firing off an occasional potshot, but if you look for us, we're here. Thanks for dropping by. Extra thanks to Phil Bowermaster, Reason, and Jay Fox for fighting the good fight.
posted by Justin on 01.28.05 at 12:14 AM
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» Mortal rendering? from Classical Values
Speaking of good writing, I found the following essay on an old floppy disk, and I thought it was worth sharing. The author, an ex of mine, died in 1995. So I guess you could call this a guest post... [Read More] Tracked on January 29, 2005 11:23 AM
Comments
EssEm--definitely "were." beloml · January 28, 2005 01:28 PM Nice topic, Live Forever(tm)? The ethical debate is miniscule in the face of the theological angst over this. mdmhvonpa · January 28, 2005 02:41 PM I don't think there's a theological argument against extended longevity - the early prophets lived a very long time. There's even a modern-day target - 120 years - that comes from the Bible. That aside, I have no doubt that longevity treatments will go first to those who can afford it - and it will be kept expensive. (I don't think, for example, that Dick Clark looks as he does simply because he eats well and runs a lot.) So there are a lot of societal and unfortunately, political, considerations. Then there's the population thing. Suppose we all in the US managed to get to a 200-year lifespan. How do we keep the population from exploding? Would a 200-year span simply extend the major life changes (puberty, child-bearing, retirement) by a factor of 2.5 or so? Or would the extra 120 years (assuming a current span of 80 years) just be tacked on to the end? How do you fund a 200-year lifespan? Roy Wolford thought he was on to something, but he died of something else before he got through his experiment. That seems to be the way of it: people live longer now, but die of things that wouldn't have gotten to them 100 years ago. I believe that if we extend to 200 years or so, new diseases and afflictions that we don't know about today will get to us. Maybe medical science will keep close enough behind the curve to make it happen. In any event, it'll take significant societal changes. (There's a book and a movie there - if it hasn't been done already.) I've just started to read Jay Fox's site - there's a lot to think about there. Mike · January 28, 2005 03:42 PM How about " I wish I had the skill to better express my thoughts..." triticale · January 28, 2005 04:08 PM This is a can of worms everybody is afraid to open. But that may be a good thing. If we try to create teh morality to cope with this technology before it is achieved it won't be achieved at all. The Luddites will crush it. So I say let it sneak up on us. How about "I wish I wrote weller." hehehe Harkonnendog · January 28, 2005 05:31 PM Don't ask me about proper English. You already know which way I guessed. Plus, I use too many sentence fragments. Far too many. Mike, if you like "Longevity First", you might also like "Fight Aging!". Glenn Reynolds blogrolled it. The movie's already been done. Villagers burn the laboratory... J. Case · January 28, 2005 06:25 PM How do we keep the population from exploding? Given that just yesterday I saw articles about the coming population CRASH in many nations, I don't think that's a problem. And if it is, well, I'm willing to worry about that later. I'm not getting any younger. I want a cure for aging while I'm still young enough for it to do me some good...or alive. Mark Jones · January 28, 2005 10:07 PM Don't sell peevishness and bilious ranting short. Lots of us like it. :-) TheAnchoress · January 28, 2005 10:59 PM I like it, too. And arrogant dogmatism. Steven Malcolm Anderson (Cato theElder) the Lesbian-worshipping man's-man-admiring myth-based egoist · January 28, 2005 11:24 PM Triticale, you realize that you split an infinitve, don't you? Not that I have a problem with that. I'm big on split infinitives, sentence fragments, etc. Phil Bowermaster · January 28, 2005 11:55 PM Jay is afraid of his own mortality. I recently lost a childhood friend who was 70 years old. He has been a quadriplegic since 1959. Under Jay's scenario, there would be tremendous do-gooder pressure to keep him alive for another 50 or 100 years or so. He lived a good life, but looked forward to crossing over and shedding his wheelchair and assorted bags etc. People are refused the right to die with dignity today, Think how much fun that would be if you knew you had another 200 years to suffer. Let's focus on Alzheimer's, Cancer, Heart Disease, Diabetes, Spinal Chord injuries restoring Sight, Hearing, and the myriad of other afflictions. Curing aging would be the absolute last item on my priority list. Ed Poinsett · January 29, 2005 08:28 AM Jay is afraid of his own mortality. Afraid of his own mortality. Heavens to Betsy! The poor deluded, misguided creature. Tell you what, if I'm ever on an airplane that's going down, I hope I'm lucky enough to have a seat next to Ed Poinsett: the Man Who Has No Fear of Death. He would be a much better role model than, say, Jesus Christ. Elsewhere I've observed that he seemed to be as "afraid of his own mortality" as many of us are. Well, nobody's perfect. Oh, wait... Anyway, I have to admire the logic that says that life extension is bad because it would prolong the suffering of some. Presumably this same logic would lead one to a great enthusiasm for euthenasia. I'm more inclined to argue that life extension treatments need not be given to any who don't want them. Also, healthy life extension is all about combatting "Alzheimer's, Cancer, Heart Disease, and Diabetes" So I don't really see a disagreement, except that Ed is uncomfortable referring to curing these things a "life extension." As for working on spinal chord injuries, blindness, deafness...I'm all for it! I wonder if researchers with longer lives, and thus a greatly expanded productive period of work, might be able to make some headway? Phil Bowermaster · January 29, 2005 01:00 PM Jay is afraid of his own mortality. I don't begrudge you for thinking so. It's an easy pot-shot at a person you have little information about. So I'll let my publicly available information speak for itself. From my donation statement at the Methuselah Mouse Prize: ...my reason for supporting the Methuselah Foundation is not for my own sake, not for some fantasy of remaining forever young. As I see it, technology is advancing so rapidly that I could sit idly by and aging would still be controllable before I reach my "life expectancy", about fifty years from now. If not for my own sake, then why? The reason I choose to support--and ask others to support--this great cause is for my parents. When I first donated to this organization in August, 2004, that was my motivation: to see that my parents, and my friends' parents, and indeed all those of my parents' generation, have the opportunity to live even a few years longer than might otherwise be possible without the heroic efforts of the Methuselah Foundation. A few decades longer would be even better, but every day of extra time with our parents and grandparents is well worth it. Well, I was too late for my father. Actually, I am fully aware that, had we invested a trillion dollars into anti-aging medicine in the year 2004, it wouldn't have helped my father. It was simply too late for him, though I didn't know it at the time. However, I still have three grandparents and a mother, and I still want as much time with them as I can get. My wife still has a mother and grandmother; my best friend still has both his parents and one of his grandparents. Every extra day is worth it, and every extra year is one to cherish. Me? My main concern for myself should be on calorie restriction, exercise, moderate and rational supplementation, and avoidance of unnecessary risks. I suspect that at least 20 years will be added to "typical" lifespans by the time I'm 67 (40 years from now), which buys me another 20 years for even more advanced medicine to become available. I'm not worred about whether aging will be cured in my lifetime. So, as I hope you've gathered: It is NOT my mortality that I'm afraid of. It's everyone else's. Concern for others: Isn't that what "charity" is all about? Jay Fox · January 31, 2005 07:44 AM Thank you Jay. It's funny how people are willing to assume the worst, on the flimsiest of pretexts. My own parents are both in their eighties, and quite unlikely to benefit from any prospective breakthroughs. Nor do I particularly expect to benefit myself, however nice that might be. I do, however, have nieces and nephews I care about, and I would like to safeguard their lives as best I can for as long as I can. That means lots of research, and the sooner the better. Mr. Poinsett and Mr. Carton both sound old, tired, and afraid. They have my understanding and sympathy, but that's all. The urge to say "My life is falling apart...and so should yours." should be resisted in polite company. Surely they have young people they care about? Perhaps they'll have a change of heart, and begin to feel less bitter. J. Case · January 31, 2005 11:55 PM |
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I wish I was a better writer or
I wish I were a better writer?
Not being snarky. Actually curious.
Whaddya think?