Estimated Prophet

The End of Affluence was published in 1974. A dark time for the Republic. Darker than many younger people, today, might credit. The reality was quite bad enough, but life is never so challenging that a little panic mongering can’t help the zeitgeist along. And what the zeitgeist back then said was that America was washed up. Vietnam proved it and Nixon proved it. We were weak and corrupt. Inflation proved it, too. We were weak and corrupt and getting poorer by the day. And our cars were crap on wheels, just ask anybody. To be young then was to need cheering up.

So I have a special place in my heart for Paul Ehrlich. He saw my world was going to hell in a handbasket and said “It's worse than you think. You have no hope. The things you love the most must end, and soon, lest we kill the planet.” And I believed him, because all my teachers said so too...When Earth Day Three rolled around, all us kids were fed eco-doom stories to commemorate the event . Mr. Pirro said we were running out of oil for fuel. Soon cars would be a “rich man’s toy “ again. Maybe the police and ambulance services would use them. Or maybe the firefighters. But private citizens? Uh uh, kid, its ricksha time for the common man. "What about airliners?", I said. "Surely we won’t just give up flight?" Airplanes too, he assured me solemnly. The Club of Rome had studied the matter. They had used computers and mathematical models. Computers, yeah. That meant it was all scientific. So just you forget about space travel, kid. It's an unaffordable luxury, soon to be abandoned.

Mr. Pirro was only an English teacher, but I believed him anyway. He was young enough to seem kind of hip. They had used computers.....

And real scientists said so too, so you could take it to the bank. Scientists like Paul Ehrlich of Stanford University. I think Dr. Ehrlich has a lot to answer for. He did the nation a real disservice promoting his bleak, ascetic vision. Years later, after doing my own research, I realized that none of the terrible things he predicted would ever come to pass, and thankfully, it has been so. A valuable lesson, that. But at the time, I was as gullible as any other high school kid, and I really truly believed that time was running out for the modern technological world. I loved that world deeply and still do.
Being a product of the public schools, however, I had no knowledge of economics, theoretical or applied. We were never even taught about compound interest! So how was I to know that his version of the economic wisdom was as flawed, as simplistic, as anything I could have come up with on my own. After all HE had a Doctorate. In Science!

In retrospect, I don't think it is good for people, individually or as a nation to believe their own doom is a foregone conclusion. Without hope, why struggle, or plan, or dream? Growing up during the cold war, I was subjected to a corrosive acid drizzle of cynical hopelessness from the popular culture. Hey, why plan ahead if the next 30 minutes could bring the end of the world? Like, we all wondered if we would live to be thirty man (Mod Squad)....You would be a fool to spend time studying or investing in the long term. It etched away at my confidence and crept like a little charnel worm into my happiest moments. Everything and everyone I ever loved could be snuffed out at a moments notice, and if they by purest chance were ALLOWED to live, well, civilization was going to fall anyway, or hadn't you heard? We would be burnt to vapor, or die retching from fallout poisoning, or nerve gas convulsions, and even if we did everything RIGHT and kept the Soviet menace at bay, it would all be for nothing, because we would be living in a fallen, medieval world. Thanks Paul!

Well, as we all know now, none of that happened. And some people think a taste of armageddon is bracing, it builds character. But I will never forgive that arrogant idiot for frightening a generation. I know people who went to their graves believing him, believing his every stupid word. They died feeling sorry for us, knowing that they had seen the best of times, that nothing better would follow, or COULD follow, that science had proven it. The Golden Age was ending with them. There are people alive today who still believe that.

The bastard.

And he will never ever admit that he was wrong....


So, shall we set the wayback for 1974? Get comfortable. This will take awhile.

What are the prospects for the future? We are facing within the next three decades, the disintegration of an unstable world of nation-states infected with growthmania....This is what underlies the sudden, seemingly mysterious shortages and the widespread inflation that have plagued the world. p 4


In the early 1970s, the leading edge of the age of scarcity arrived. With it came a clearer look at the future, revealing more of the nature of the dark age to come. p 7


If you face what's coming squarely, you may be able to ride the crest of the tidal wave that will engulf society, rather than be crushed beneath it. p 8

Yikes! And this is just from the introduction. So, rather than assent to some heavy crushing action, we should take resolute steps. Such as for instance...


For instance, it is prudent, we suggest, to stash a few cases of tuna in your basement (if you're lucky enough to have a basement and the money for the tuna) because periodic protein shortages (or at least sky-high prices) seem certain to occur within the ten-to-twenty-year shelf-life of the cans. p 10

Riiight. End of the world. Tuna in the basement. I must confess to laughing out loud when I re-read this paragraph. My MOM kept tuna in the basement. Along with sealed tubs of hard winter wheat, "Just in case.". I was down there last year. Thirty years on and it's still there.The wheat, that is. My mom would NEVER let tuna sit that long.


We think our diagnosis of the ills of society is substantially correct, even though the exact pattern of the decline remains obscure. Nevertheless, or suggestions for "cures" must be taken with caution, since among other things, no one, including ourselves, has had any prior experience of the disease. After all, industrial society has never been threatened with total collapse before! p 12

The above quote might be mistaken for humility, if you squint a bit. Relax, it's not typical.


We live in a a crowded suburban area in a moderate-sized house without a basement. Our only child is an adult. We enjoy our friends and our work too much to move to a remote spot and start farming and hoarding-although we think that may be a very intelligent choice for some people. If society goes, we will go with it... p 13

But not before eating some yummy tuna.


This vast tragedy, however, is nothing compared to the nutritional disaster that seems likely to overtake humanity in the 1970s (or, at the latest, the 1980s). Due to a combination of ignorance, greed, and callousness, a situation has been created that could lead to a BILLION OR MORE PEOPLE STARVING TO DEATH. p 21


One way or another, the human population explosion will probably come to an end well before it reaches the often-discussed UN projection of some 6.5 billion people in the year 2000. It would be a miracle if the halt were caused by a precipitous decline in family sizes...Lacking miracles, the halt will occur in the only other way possible-THROUGH THE DRASTIC SHORTENING OF THE LIVES OF ENORMOUS NUMBERS OF HUMAN BEINGS. p 31-32

Emphasis not mine. Regarding those shorter lives, ahem.


The exact timetable of society's decline and the sequence of steps on the down staircase are impossible to predict, but they are relatively unimportant. What you need to know is that in ten or fifteen years-twenty or twenty-five at most-you will be living in a world EXTREMELY DIFFERENT from that of today-one that, if you are unprepared for it, will prove extraordinarily unpleasant. p 34

Kind of funny isn't it. Everything he stated above is true, but not in the way he meant it. Sure is a funny old world.


Your children should have it impressed upon them that their adult life-style will bear very little resemblance to yours... p 36

Well, yes and no...

We can be reasonably sure, then, that within the next quarter of a century mankind will be looking elsewhere than in oil wells for its main source of energy. p 49


To put it simply, mankind has blown its chance for a smooth transition to an equilibrium society. The general economic trend is going to be downhill from now on. There may be temporary reversals-renewed flows of oil, bumper harvests, partial recoveries-but as the end of the century approaches, each decade will be worse than the preceding one for the average American, to say nothing of the average human being. How can we be so sure...? One reason is that many important trends have a built-in momentum that would make reversal difficult, even if the effort were made. p 92-93

So then, we can be pretty confident here, right? Momentum is key.


For some countries-India, for example-the boat has already sailed. p 104

Just as a casual aside, Ehrlich really does seem to have it in for India. In "The Population Bomb" he advocated forced sterilization for the Indian peasantry.

The contrast between India and China is striking. While there is more political freedom in India, there is more freedom from hunger and poverty in China-and few would contend that the average Indian is better off than the average Chinese. India has been a colossal failure at population control; China shows every possibility of success. It is clear that many underdeveloped countries could learn a great deal from the Chinese example... p 106-107

Yessss, we could ALL learn a great deal from the Chinese. Coincidentally, Jeremy Rifkin loved Red China too. The place seems to just...speak... to a certain mindset. Is it the sense of order and united purpose, or what?

Future major crises in Europe, such as one caused by severe food shortages, for example, will no doubt be met with cries of "The hell with you Jack, I've got mine". Keep an eye on France in particular-she can probably feed herself, something most other European nations cannot do. p 114

"Keep an eye on France in particular..."

Right again, for the wrong reasons. Some day we can do political Ehrlich. His analysis of seventies politicians showed stunning acumen.

Scientific leadership has, if anything, been worse than religious leadership. In theory at least, scientists ought to know better, but they sent men to the moon when cities on Earth were dissolving, and transplanted hearts in preference to tackling the problems of overpopulation and mass starvation. p 146

Pesky scientists...sending men... to the moon.......Cities!...Dissolving! Hearts...Transplant!...Transplant!!

To growthmaniacs, poisoning the consumer and mortgaging the future of society are a small price for one last fling at affluence The major question now is whether that fling will materialize...We think probably not. The food crunch is likely to undermine the world economy and result in political instability that will affect every corner of the globe. But a temporary boom is POSSIBLE-accompanied by short-term gluts of commodities like meat, wheat, and gasoline-although the long-term trend is clearly downhill.
The Dow-Jones average might even hit 2000! p 174
We hope a last fling does not occur. Such a boom would all but destroy any remaining chance to make a smooth transition to an equilibrium society....The final growth spurt of the cowboy economy would be like the sudden brightening of a light bulb just before it goes out. p 174

Lands sake's, now we got spurting cowboys!

With or without a terminal boom, what will the long term trends look like from the viewpoint of most Americans?....Instead of being concerned with "Keeping up with the Joneses" in terms of newness of car and number of household gadgets, people will increasingly worry about how to keep nutritious food in their children's stomachs and roofs over their heads. The purchase of food will take a bigger and bigger portion of the household budget, and, unless the grow-it-yourself movement really catches on, the quality of the average American diet will deteriorate....Rising costs of land, lumber, aluminum, roofing materials, plastics, and the like will make the single-family home an unattainable dream for most people. Many people who already have homes will find themselves hard pressed to pay for gas or electricity for cooking and heating, or for water to keep their gardens. growing. p 174-175

Hence, the plague of "monster houses" on the land.

There are, indeed, "hard times a-coming." Even if there is no final boom and bust, the economic world of the near future will be a very different place from that of today. We suspect that it will be much less complex. On one hand, there will be a relatively few gigantic corporate entities, private or nationalized, attempting to fill basic needs: food housing, clothing, transportation, and medicine. p 175-176

Just ask any Lepidopterist.

On the other hand, there will be a resurgence of small family-based enterprises-farms, shops, maintenance businesses-through which people attempt to provide for themselves the security that is otherwise unattainable. The vast diversity of businesses that manufacture and distribute the goods of our "cowboy" economy will have largely disappeared.
Most of the Japanese firms that today shower us with electronic gadgets will have gone defunct as Japan's situation deteriorates, and the higher costs of necessities will have so reduced demand for television sets, radios, tape decks, and the like that few new firms will have entered the market. Similarly, a wide array of non-essentials, from convenience foods to recreational vehicles, will have largely vanished along with the companies that produce them.

It is instructive for the reader to take a moment, and contemplate the above passage. Read it twice. This man was awarded a MacArthur "Genius Grant" worth a third of a million.

Probably before 1985, a general recognition of the changed economic status of the nation will lead to a stock-market collapse even more severe than the one that preceded the onset of the depression of the 1930s. This time, however, the public will be aware of the depth of our economic difficulties, and confidence in the market as a place to make money may be more or less permanently eroded. It is very likely that before the end of the century the stock market, as we know it, will disappear as a factor in the lives of individuals. p176

Now, I don't claim to know much about the stock market. But I do know what a 401k is. I suppose you could claim that the market had to reinvent itself to keep itself alive. Lower commissions, special tax breaks, index funds, etc., etc. But really, adapting to changing circumstances is what people DO. To think they couldn't would be the height of arrogance... Never mind...

We can expect that either processed food prices will become outlandish or quality will decline as processors try to reduce their costs. Either way, they'll lose customers. p 203

Well, I am convinced. Now we have marshalled our collective will. But, what is to be done? The people require a leader with answers! How about a few concrete proposals?

A way to cut back here is for neighbors who shop in the same stores to form car pools. If you live close enough to your market, you might consider walking with a shopping cart, Also, it"s good exercise. Or you might try a three-wheeled bicycle, which can carry quite a lot of groceries. p 203

Picture the stylish Berkeley mom, doggedly peddling her tricycle to the co-op, recycled shopping bag cinched onto her back, Kinda gets you doesn't it? Or how about this scenario, "I'm out of sugar, Dot! Let's carpool to the market!". It could be made to work.

Over the next decade or two, Americans should try to cut their per capita energy consumption in HALF. This effort lies at the heart of any solution to national and world scarcity problems. Such a reduction, however, would require far more than such half-hearted measures as lower speed limits and reduced commercial lighting, although these help. Nothing less than a reorganization of the American way of life is required. p 221

No half-hearted measures! Nothing less is required!

I really think the next few sentences sound better when read with a German accent. Some might differ. Perhaps Chinese?

Much of what should be done is obvious. The entire pattern of transportation for the US should be changed, and this means that our settlement patterns must also change........p 222

The entire pattern of transportation.

There are many relatively minor changes that, if made across the nation, could add up to significant energy savings...Electrical-resistance heating ...should be banned in new homes and offices...Unnecessary lighting in offices and factories should also be banned....There should certainly be a ban on lighting for business advertising when the business is closed. p 226
Completely frivolous uses of power, such as gas yard lamps that are permanently lit, should be outlawed altogether.

Definitely German. No frivolous power!

...vacationing by automobile could be discouraged...Vacation time could be increased to four to six weeks annually...

Just like in France!

Three-day weekends, which create enormous jams on highways, can be eliminated by abolishing the recent shift of most holidays to Monday.

I am surprised such a simple and obvious solution remains unimplemented.

All these proposed changes are entirely possible; undoubtedly you can think of others. And none of them would reduce our standard of living. p 227
It is essential to start behaving NOW as though energy were a scarce and precious commodity-because it is, even if most people don't realize it. p 228
The first thing you should do is USE PUBLIC TRANSPORT WHENEVER POSSIBLE. p 233
If you live a ridiculously long distance from your work, no public transport is available, and car-pooling is impractical, you might consider moving closer (or changing jobs). p 234
If a second car still seems essential to you, consider joint ownership with neighbors or friends... p 234

I grow weary. Perhaps just one more excerpt.

Heavy industry...may undergo very little further increase. Some types of manufacturing indeed may even collapse abruptly, depending on the availability of raw materials and energy and on the course of events. The most unnecessary, wasteful, and antisocial activities-such as the packaging and bottling industries, some kinds of weapons, aircraft, cheap plastic products, etc.-are likely to be eliminated either in a conventional depression or the real energy crunch. p 237

Let's just keep an eye out for those anti-social yard lamps.

How do you follow an act like that? Not easily. I think I'll delegate.

Back in 2000, "Scientific American" ran a short puff piece on Ehrlich. To call it fawning would be inappropriate. But so very true. Check it out here.

Here's just a taste for the link shy:

"At the age of 68, Ehrlich remains an unbowed six feet, two inches. The deep, sonorous voice that must have delighted Tonight Show producers still rumbles out from his rangy frame. Here at his summer workplace, the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory in Gothic, Colo., in the heart of mountains some 120 miles southwest of Denver, he’s grown a beard that makes him resemble one of the Victorian-era miners who once worked the area. His large hands firmly grip the steering wheel of his Jeep as we climb the steep, grooved mud track to the cramped four-room cabin he has shared with wife, Anne, for the past 40 summers."

His large hands firmly grip....? Ooooh Fabian, I'm melting inside!

" Ehrlich is unrepentant. Sure, his famous book had its faults, he acknowledges, but he counters, “Show me a scientist old enough to write something in 1968 who would still write the same thing today, and I’ll show you an idiot.” ".

I can't speak for all scientists, but there were plenty of engineers, economists, and geologists who went on the (obscure) record trying to debunk this jackass. We can imagine them as skinny, turkey-necked fellows, thin of hair and thick of glasses, perhaps with pocket protectors.They never got the media play that Mr. Eco-doom managed to hustle up. We never heard their message over at the High School, in Mr. Pirro's class. But unlike Dr. Ehrlich, they actually knew what they were talking about. THEY got it right. THEY don't have to revise a word.

"His take-no-prisoners wit and tidbits about the local environment spice the conversation. (The Western Fuels Association becomes the “Western Fools Association,” his long-standing antagonist the Cato Institute is a “thoughtless tank,” and presidential hopeful George W. Bush is dismissed as “George Shrub ... this guy who is running for some office in our country."

There was a time when I loved Scientific American.

Scientific American. Less of either with every year.

posted by Justin on 07.15.04 at 11:34 AM





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Comments

That's a hell of a good essay on one hell of an overrated man.

I wish I could get you to post something like that every day!

Eric Scheie   ·  July 16, 2004 11:00 AM

Ehrlich and Ehrlichman. An interesting polarity of styles....

Are you familiar with the late Julian Simon's bet with Ehrlich? He bet Ehrlich that the price of several natural resources would go down over the course of a few years, thus proving that they weren't becoming scarce. Simon won the bet.
I think such bets are a great way to deal with such doom-saying.
You mention not studying economics in public school. I've just recently starting to read about economics. Just learning the basic (bad)economics of rent control is mind-blowing to me (as a New Yorker). I think that our civil society would be greatly improved if economics were part of the curriculum. It would be far more useful than the more abstract mathematics that teenagers are required to learn now.

UpNights   ·  July 19, 2004 08:30 AM

Upnights, I am indeed familiar with Julian Simon's wager, and much else of his work as well. He helped quiet my jittery nerves back in the early 80s. I agree with you that public schools would benefit from a more practical approach to economics. I graduated high school unable to calculate rates of return on interest. It takes five minutes to learn. Why was it not more widely taught?

J. Case   ·  July 23, 2004 08:47 PM


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