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August 17, 2010
A Third Of Your Adult Life On The Dole
There's some confusion about how many years of Social Security someone who reaches SS retirement age will actually receive. While life expectancy is only in the high 70s, that includes a lot of people who die in infancy or before reaching retirement age. Life expectancy at 65 in 2005 was about 18 years. It appears to be about 19 in 2010. It's been steadily increasing by about a year per decade for some time, and while Obamacare's rationing and innovation-stifling will doubtless stall that a bit, the trend is likely to continue in the long run (especially if the 60% of likely voters who want HCR repealed get their way). If you work from 18 to 65, or 47 years, you would only need to live about 23 years before achieving that one-third. By the time most Americans working today retire, that's probably about where the LE at 65 will be. So yes, as it stands now the system really is promising most Americans working today a third of their adult lives on the dole, assuming they make it to retirement age. Or, to put it another way: you're expected to spend fully half the time you worked in retirement. It's not at all clear it is possible for the working 2/3 to support the nonworking 1/3 at ever-increasing living standards. Social Security was originally set at about the LE of its time, and it was mostly intended to provide basic subsistence to those too old to work, a laudable and easily funded goal when there are ten workers for every retiree. But because it ignores rising life expectancies the system is now headed for 2 workers for every retiree -- and because the cost of living adjustments are based on CPI, which drastically understates the actual increase in living standards (it doesn't even attempt to measure most qualitative gains or efficiencies to consumers such as WalMart; this is a known problem in economics) it's expected to deliver living standards far in excess of the average living standards at the time SS was enacted. It's no longer a security blanket, and no longer subsistence. posted by Dave on 08.17.10 at 01:20 PM
Comments
One problem is that even though people are living longer that doesn't necessarily translate into being able to work a lot longer. I don't know what's right, but one size fits all wouldn't be best, but is the only way we could go, politically speaking. I'm 47. Of course, you'll need the Dems onboard for Minitru to do that, so that makes it much less probable. We're just a little short, relatively, to being able to afford to do all the things that are "right" for the poor and helpless, but we're still short of the resources and we have our self-proclaimed "elite" basically in lockstep that we need to do it. Veeshir · August 17, 2010 03:21 PM Good post. The disconnect between what is promised and what is possible is the biggest problem. I'm 30 and I'm not counting on social security to be solvent, or even having a traditional retirement at all. I'm expecting to live off savings and work part time as long as I'm physically able. Even my parents, who are in their young 50's, are preparing for part time self employment after 65 since they're not fully funded for retirement. And yet, I don't want social security to be made solvent because I know the tax level required to accomplish that will crush private enterprise and economic mobility, including mine but also anyone younger. That's the real danger, that we'll pass the point at which the George W Bush plan or the Paul Ryan plan can solve things and still keep the plates spinning, and that we'll try to preserve the status quo so long a hard crash will be inevitable. Dave R. · August 17, 2010 03:31 PM I've just got to agree with Firehand and Veeshir. Some how using the word "dole" is offensive when you have been charged every day of your working life for something that was "sold" as a retirement. Many of us have figured out it would never be enough,and those able have done what they could to add to it. But it's still not right to imply you've got your hand out for "free" money. And Veeshir is quite correct,living longer and being able to work longer are not the same things.I know for a fact that it is not physically possible for me at almost sixty to do the physical work I did at forty...While at this time I plan to work well past sixty five,moving the age up to say seventy, is just going to result in more disability SS payments.... So,what ya gonna do? Something has to give no doubt. The system's broke flicka47 · August 17, 2010 06:01 PM LE was 58 in 1930. FDR used SS as another tax, nothing more. dr kill · August 17, 2010 06:33 PM Dr Kill is correct that Social Security was a tax, but that is not nearly all. FDR’s scheme was a fundamental shift away from self-responsibility. As noted in the original blog, the change is life expectancy is one dimension of the fraud. But there is another, even more important dimension, which is the scope of coverage. A humane society sets a safety net for the weakest 10%. Only a committed socialist sets a spider web to trap everyone… ****** Suppose there are 10 people, one of whom is poor. Th right thing to do is have each of the 9 give up 10¢, , so that the 10th person gets 90¢. • First, they felt it was better to fool people, taking a dollar and giving back 90¢, rather than openly and honestly asking them to give a dime to the poor. • Second, getting back their own 90¢ got people hooked on the fallacy of free government money. It distorts personal incentives. By giving the other 9 people back their OWN 90¢, it creates the desperate illusion that government can actually give you something. That foster dependency and destroys initiative. But government creates nothing, invents nothing, earns nothing. Government is merely a redistribution scheme. Worse, it is in fact a net drain. Government takes in 100, re-distributes 60 and wastes 40. Worst of all, that 60 is given not for need but for patronage. So government must do only what is absolutely necessary, and be held in tight check beyond that. • Third, It gives government control of far too much of our lives. Bureaucrats love the bloat that goes with handling ten times the money actually needed. It gives them the power to micromanage our lives, and engage is social engineering at their insular whim. Robert Arvanitis · August 17, 2010 06:56 PM I agree with the poster who stated that we had no choice in whether we wanted to participate in SS. Regarding whether SS participants, many like me who will pay far, far more into the system than we will likely ever take out, are "on the dole" is a misleading dishonest characterization to put it lightly. If one pays more into the system than one receives, is it accurate or honest to characterize it as being "on the dole"? On the other hand, there is a very large group of Americans working in the public sector (city, state and federal govts) who can retire after 20 or 30 years and receive 80% or 90% of their max earning years immediately upon retirement. Unlike us Social Security serfs, the government retirees get to start collecting IMMEDIATELY upon retirement whether that be 40 yrs old or 55 yrs old. Whereas the rest of us have to wait until age 65. That's the real imbalance which needs to be discussed. What we have in place is a disastrous system with private workers having to work well into their 60's or 70's in order to pay for the Caribbean cruise vacations of govt workers who retired in their 40's or 50's. It's outrageous as hell. Public pensions need to be slashed and brought into reality Mook · August 18, 2010 03:54 AM "On the dole" just means you're getting government money instead of working, without prejudice as to whether you earned it or not, or how much more paid in than you received. Unfortunately, under the SS system as it is set up you don't actually save any money; the government spends everything you give them, and when you're paid it comes out of today's taxes. It's a Ponzi scheme. TallDave · August 18, 2010 10:17 AM Post a comment
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I object to the 'on the dole' line: a system I've had no say in whether or not I wanted to participate, for which every paycheck I've ever earned has been robbed, and the system wishes I'd die before I could at least get my money back, and if I live long enough to apply for it I'll be on the dole?