According to a GOP senate aide, the Senate health care bill is dangerously close to passing.

Reid suggested Monday that the Senate endgame may be near. "We're there," he reportedly said.

A Senate GOP aide said, "At the beginning of this debate the Democrats were 3 to 4 votes shy of passing this bill. They seem to feel now that they are only one vote shy. The anxiety levels are very high on the GOP side."

A vote was expected late Monday or perhaps Tuesday on a Nelson amendment to bar any federal insurance subsidies from going to any insurance plans that funded abortion. It was modeled on language by Rep. Bart Stupak, D-Mich., that became part of the House health bill passed last month.

Under current Senate rules, Nelson's amendment would need 60 votes to pass. It was expected to fail.

"The message that is being sent to GOP senators is you better vote for the Nelson amendment, because he'll probably vote for the final bill anyway even if the amendment loses," said the GOP aide. "Don't vote against the amendment in the hopes that Nelson will walk away from the health care bill."

Nelson has previously said if the bill doesn't have language similar to Stupak's, he would not move it off the floor. Nelson's office did not respond to a request for comment.

There was also concern that public opposition to the bill is not as intense as it has been.

"The peak in interest was in August and there was another peak during the House vote," said the GOP aide. "How many people know there is an abortion vote today? The pressure is not as intense. The momentum seems to be with the Democrats."

I hope I'm wrong, but I'm beginning to smell a rat.

UPDATE (12/09/09): Nelson's antiabortion amendment failed. Which means that if Nelson carries out his threat, the Democrats are one vote short of passage, unless they are able to persuade a Republican.

Nelson has promised to vote against the overall legislation unless his amendment is included. If he carries out his threat, Democrats would fall at least one vote short of passage unless they can find a Republican to fill his shoes.

The most likely votes are Maine's Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins, who voted against Nelson's amendment, but snagging their votes would require compromises likely to alienate many Democrats.

The Senate tabled Nelson's amendment by a 54-45 vote, with seven moderate and conservative Democrats supporting it. The amendment mirrored a similar provision in the House legislation essential to its passage last month.

See "All Roads Lead to Olympia Snowe as Reid Looks for Health Care Closer."

As to Susan Collins, (also from Maine), she favors health care reform, but she has said she doesn't like this bill.

Snowe is a complete wobbler compared to Collins, and I would say that if things are this close, both of their votes may depend on how the issue polls in her home state. From a recent Zogby poll:

UTICA, New York--Two-in-five likely Maine voters (39%) support the healthcare bill now making its way through Congress, while 44% oppose the measure and 18% are undecided. Support for healthcare reform breaks evenly across party lines.

[...]

A third of likely voters say they would be less likely to vote for Senators Collins (33%) or Snowe (31%) if they voted in favor of the healthcare bill; nearly half say that such a vote by Senator Collins (43%) or Senator Snowe (45%) would make no difference. Forty percent of democratic voters say they would be more likely to consider voting for Senator Snowe, while 35 percent would be more likely to vote for Senator Collins if they voted in favor of the bill.