An Inconvenient Uncertainty

Willis Eschenbach nails it:

Here's the point: prior to this study, the IPCC was 99% certain that the radiative forcing from methane was between about 0.4 and 0.6. But this new study is now 99% certain that it is between 0.7 and 1.3 ... which means that the uncertainty ranges of the earlier studies, or this study, or both, are way too small. They claim a certainty about their calculations that we simply do not have.

This is a recurring problem with the IPCC, and with climate science in general. They are very, very certain that they have the answers, certain enough that people say "the science is settled". They are certain enough that people say we should spend billions and billions of dollars based on their conclusions.

But as you can see above, this certainty is false. Their claims are not valid, and their uncertainty ranges are ... well ... let me call them "incredibly optimistic" and let it go at that.


I'll go further and say they are a deliberate lie. It's beyond obvious that you can't keep throwing out "90% certain" scenarios that keep being wrong. No real scientist would pretend otherwise.

Meanwhile, McIntyre and Lindzen destroy the AGW argument on Finnish TV. Bristlecones, Yamal, the upside-down Korttajärvi graph, ERBE... it's all there.

posted by Dave on 11.10.09 at 01:50 PM





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If it is true that Wall Street enticed the best and the brightest of the science community to build and maintain their computer models, quants, and risk analysis programs (with such stunning results) doesn't that imply something about Climate Models...think about it.

Will   ·  November 10, 2009 04:26 PM

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