Will the Democratic Party be so stupid as to pass a health care reform bill? The other night a group of eager beaver policy wonks told me they would, and explained why.

This morning I found virtually all of their arguments outlined here. Despite the fierce opposition that gripped the nation all summer, the bill is alive and well:

...as the right became energized, the left grew disillusioned, as much by the administration's backroom deals as by its ineffectual messaging. Eventually, the shift showed up in the polls. First people grew more wary of reform. Then they grew more wary of the president. It was if everything that could go wrong did go wrong.

Somehow, though, health reform is not dead. Despite all of the setbacks and all of the missed opportunities--despite this train wreck of a month--the situation remains remarkably similar to what it was before the recess. Significant health care legislation is likely to pass, particularly if Obama manages to give a good speech on Wednesday night.

...if Snowe signs on, according to nearly every person I consulted, it's quite possible the legislation she supports would become the Senate's bill with very little change--and that, in conference, the Senate bill would prevail. She'd hold the leverage, as long as the administration and Democratic leadership prefer to pass pass legislation with 60 votes. And that certainly seems to be the inclination of Obama and his advisors. (It's harder to tell about Congress, particularly the House, but they're unlikely to challenge the White House openly on this.)

Unless, of course, it never gets that far. Snowe may not sign on; even if she does, one source close to the process notes, she "may not bring a sufficient number of conservative Democrats" to reach 60. If that happens--if consensus proves elusive, for whatever reason--then Obama and his allies would focus on trying to pass a bill through reconciliation. And they would move quickly.

It is, as one senior administration official put it recently to me, a "high-risk-high-reward" strategy. Since reconciliation means passing a bill with just fifty senators supporting it, the group of interests to satisfy becomes narrower--potentially allowing for a bolder, more progressive bill. That's the reward. At the same time, it's risky because of the procedural hurdles. Among other things, Conrad would apparently become the measure's "floor manager," since he's chairman of the Budget Committee. (It's not clear to me what that entails, but, I gather, it's not entirely helpful, given his well-known skepticism about health reform.)

But the greatest risk with reconciliation is that the process produces a weak bill, an incomplete one, or, in the very worst case, a counter-productive one--not that it fails to produce any bill at all. The Democratic Party isn't necessarily the bravest. (If it was, it'd have passed reform already.) But it's also not the dumbest. Failing to pass a bill when they have the numbers would be politically suicidal, just like it was in the 1990s. Having committed themselves to passing legislation, they now must follow through.

I think it's suicide to pass it -- especially by using the undemocratic, shove-it-down-your-throat "reconciliation" process. Because voters won't like it, and the reality of what they did will have plenty of time to sink in before the next election.

MORE: Pelosi and Reid Tell President: We Have the Votes; President Wants Bill Passed Soon

They're committing political suicide. To avoid political suicide.