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September 08, 2009
Decline And Fall
Here is a bit I did in December of 2006. It is especially relevant given Eric's post on how the world is going to the dogs. === Commenter Karridine alerted me to this interesting piece by Orson Scott Card on the decline and fall of the Roman Empire. Card's central thesis is that trade made the empire and its people richer and that the empire fell because trade was no longer safe. Trade breaks down as merchants lose confidence and markets are disrupted by barbarian invaders. When this happens, specialization becomes impossible, local areas must become agriculturally and militarily self-sufficient again, and between disease, famine, war, and emigration, populations crash.Then he asks the most important question of the day. Can it happen to us? For a century, America has been the great cushion to absorb the shocks that might have brought down western civilization. In the Great War (WWI), Europe crashed its own population through war and then crashed further through the influenza epidemic. But the American economy provided the means for France and Britain -- but not Germany -- to recover. Arguably, it was the failure to include Germany in the recovery that led to repeated economic crises, and when America finally joined Europe with its own Depression in the 1930s, the stage was set for the next barbarian invasion.He discusses the German and Japanese barbarians of WW2 and why it was good that America defeated them. He then goes on to discuss the American "imperial" system. In the aftermath of WWII, once again America was the economic cushion -- only this time the portion of Germany under western occupation was included in the economic recovery, as was Japan.He then goes on to discuss China and Russia and the different path's they have taken. He is not optimistic about either country. Then he discusses how the American system could fall to the barbarians. Here's how it happens: America stupidly and immorally withdraws from the War on Terror, withdrawing prematurely from Iraq and leaving it in chaos. Emboldened, either Muslims unite against the West (unlikely) or collapse in a huge war between Shiites and Sunnis (already beginning). It almost doesn't matter, because in the process the oil will stop flowing.He points out what I have and so many others have said over and over. At this time oil is the life blood of civilization. Without it there will be a huge die off. Card looks at what America might become without world trade and imported oil. ...our own oil production cannot meet the demands of transportation and production at current levels. Rationing will cripple us. We will not be able to maintain our huge fleet of trucks. Air travel will becoming shockingly expensive and airlines will fail or consolidate. We won't even be allowed to drive our cars on long trips because gasoline will be rationed.A similar crash of global trade happened in the aftermath of the European wars of the 20th century. Starting in 1914 it did not fully recovered until 50 years from the end of the last of the European shooting wars. We many not be so lucky this time. Fortunately we have an ace in the hole. However, we had better get cracking. This new source of energy will take 5 years to prototype and probably 10 years to roll out. There is no time to waste. Cross Posted at Power and Control posted by Simon on 09.08.09 at 01:38 PM
Comments
C.W., I have another piece on this (also written back in 2006) that I will post in the next day or so. M. Simon · September 8, 2009 08:50 PM Let me also add that I agree with your point that the USA is in no immediate danger from a lack of energy. Not so for the rest of the world. And that is a problem. The US as an island of energy in an energy desert is probably not sustainable. The amount of funding devoted to fusion (other than ITER) is totally inadequate. There are between five and thirty different experiments that should be getting from $2 to $20 million a year (depending on the experiment). M. Simon · September 8, 2009 09:04 PM Hmm, this is interesting. 1. Forget about the alternative energy sources for now - the Left has been saying all along that the USA is engaged in a war for oil. We all know this is a load of bull, but do you believe that the citizens of the USA will not sign on to such a war, especially if they knew the stakes? Heck, just the fact that gas prices go up beyond $4/gallon is enough to make people go nuts. 2. Okay, forget about foreign adventures. There's plenty of domestic oil, and Canada is the No 1 exporter of the stuff to the USA anyway. Is it such a stretch to assume the 'green policy' will vanish in the face of gas shortages? I'm not convinced that the Middle East vaporising themselves will cause or lead to an end to civilisation, especially while Israel remains a country geographically located within the area, and while America remains committed to Israel's right to exist there. Gregory · September 8, 2009 09:11 PM I'm not sure that Justinian wanted to turn back, or that he ever wanted to. He put down a huge tax revolt, instituted sodomy laws, closed the brothels, outlawed the old religion (with the death penalty for apostasy), and a lot more. http://stu.cofc.edu/~wecapps/emperorjustinian.htm Depending on whom you ask, Rome either continued its freefall or morphed into something else. OTOH, the Ostrogoths (who began as invaders) seem to have been more interested in turning back than Justinian: Eric Scheie · September 9, 2009 09:46 AM I wrote an essay more or less along the same lines as Card, a couple of years ago - Pax Romana- meditating on the trade and technology, and how it made life better for the common people of Rome, better than it would be for more than a thousand years afterward. I guess history wonks tend to think along the same lines. Sgt. Mom · September 9, 2009 11:06 AM Another factor that seems to be overlooked by Card is that any human wave attacks across the southern border would have to deal with an American populace that is far better armed than the Roman Empire's on a per person basis. "You cannot invade the United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass." SDN · September 9, 2009 10:06 PM |
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I would point out that in the event of an oil catastrophe, while the we (the United States) would suffer, there are two energy sources we to which we can adapt. #1 is Coal, which can be converted into more portable liquid form by Fischer-Tropsh catalysis, and old and established technology. #2 is Nuclear fission, that has the advantage of fusion in that it exist in practical form. While I applaud your enthusiasm for fusion research, until it is practical, we still have these other solutions.
If we indeed had a blackswan event, and out imported oil was cut-off in a matter of months never to return, how bad would it be on us? Who has gamed the scenario?
The thesis that Rome prospered due to free trade protected by military means is interesting. My reading of Gibbon suggests many other reasons, but he is not in fashion these days.
C.W.