August 16, 2008
Well Calculated Moves
I was commenting at Winds of Change and some one asked if Bush had thought through his moves:
And, of course, it helps to think through what comes next.Obviously given the moves and counter moves going on Russia has thought though its actions to the last decimal point and is advancing its position internationally.
1. Poland gets an anti-missile defense.
And it is not over yet.
As Canaris said to a Spanish diplomat who asked a similar question about Germany's leader of the time: "Calculated nothing at all."
The next question of course is what happens when Russia cuts off Europe's gas and oil?
My take on all this - Russian oil output is on the decline with the expulsion of Western oil companies. It has to conquer or die. Germany 1939. Japan 1941.
My guess? Russia is bluffing and its bluff has been called.
And of its arsenal of nuclear tipped missiles - how many will work when fired? As many as 30%? 50%? Or 10%?
When you bluff it is wisest not to let your opponent see your cards. i.e. had Russia pulled out after its initial depredations it might have kept its credibility intact. Now it has to show its cards or fold. Bush is calling their bluff.
Had Europe in the run up to WW2 stood firm on Czechoslovakia or Austria resisted the Anschluss, a general war in Europe might well have been avoided. I believe that is the motivation behind current events. Once you let the little guys get picked off it then comes to a bigger war not too much later.
"Britain and France had to choose between war and dishonor. They chose dishonor. They will have war." Winston Churchill
Cross Posted at Power and Control
posted by Simon on 08.16.08 at 04:46 AM
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