running to beat all records!

I went for my usual three-mile-run yesterday.

Normally, such an observation would not qualify for the blog, as I try to avoid blogging about mundane personal activities. Really, do people want to hear about what I eat, what I wear, what time I go to bed, and how thoroughly I brush and/or floss my teeth? I certainly hope not, and in any event my dignity deters me from routine discussions of the mundane.

But if recent news headlines are to be a guideline, my ordinary run has become anything but mundane. It might even be considered death-defying behavior, because temperatures have been in the high 90s.

Today's front page has a huge headline -- Just a Little Warm-up -- This early heat wave may serve to toughen us for what's to come.

It almost set a record.

Yesterday's official high in Philadelphia was 97, just one degree shy of the record set in 1933. Unofficially, it was certifiably hot, a day for slurred thoughts and slow movements, a day to seek air-conditioning and serious hydrotherapy.

"I don't want to leave," said Monique Benitez, 23, of Northeast Philadelphia, her clothing pleasantly dampened from the spray of the fountain in Logan Square, where she had brought her 2-year-old daughter yesterday.

And while I (fool that I am) may have made it home alive from my run, people are showing up at hospitals.
Sunday and yesterday, about 10 patients showed up at the Our Lady of Lourdes Hospital emergency room in Camden with heat-related problems.

"Today we saw two very ill young people because they were exercising outside without proper hydration," said Russell Harris, an emergency physician at Lourdes. "So, no, the word hasn't gotten out. What surprises me is that we're seeing people who should know better."

Should I take that personally? I mean, did I deliberately and irresponsibly risk my life by my three-mile-run? And like, just because I have insurance, is that really any excuse for my high risk behavior which might as well have been at potential taxpayer?

Besides, don't "we" all pay? I'm thinking maybe that assholes like me shouldn't be allowed to run around risking their lives, and if we all have to pay (as we soon will once medical care is fully socialized), then maybe there should be laws, and people caught running around in the heat should be treated as akin to drivers without seatbelts or cell phone drivers, and ticketed for their anti-social behavior.

(Perhaps that's a good argument against blogging about high-risk activities like jogging.)

The thing is, I'm old enough to remember when not everyone had air conditioning. It was a luxury, not a necessity. The only other people who seem to remember that live in nursing homes:

At the Upper Darby Community Complex and Senior Center, Al Brooks, 81, of Essington, and his friend Wayne Smith, 79, were reminiscing about life before air-conditioning. And not liking it.

"I don't know how we even did it, really," Brooks said during a game of pinochle with a few other card sharks from the center. "We didn't know it was hot," said Smith. "We didn't even think about it, we really didn't."

I didn't either. But at the rate things are going, not having an air conditioner will be like not having a toilet -- an offense against society's living standards, and perhaps grounds for a visit from the social workers who might take away the elderly and the children for their own good.

What intrigued me the most about the story was the subtext of the subheadline: "This early heat wave may serve to toughen us for what's to come."

What's to come?

Now, we all know that weather is not climate (at least, the scientists still allow us to believe that), and there's no mention of global warming in the piece. But at the Inquirer's web site, comments to the piece are solicited -- with the question, Do you believe: In global warming?

wutz2cum.JPG

In the comments, "Bender" complains that "sloppy reporting" "allows" people to think skeptically:

asking "do you believe in global warming?" is like asking "do you believe in gravity?" its scientific fact that the average temperature across the globe is getting warmer every year. Its sloppy reporting like that that allows people to still think it isn't real.
Hey, maybe the idea that weather is not climate is a result of sloppy reporting too. If people were being scolded as they should be, they wouldn't think that!

I enjoyed these responses from "Simon":

....Sometimes it just gets hot on a day that it doesn't usually get so hot. I think the weather has been doing this for about 2 billion years.

[...]

There's no "global warming". Take off the tin-foil hats people and calm down. I went skiing in Jackson Hole, Wyoming this past winter and they had 600 inches of snowfall this season which broke the previous record from 1996. I didn't see any moose or caribou sweating in the 11 degree temperature either. So...to recap: there's no "god", there's no "tooth fairy", the U.S. government didn't blow up WTC 7, and there's no "global warming".

And I did not die.

I still have a right to run, and to discuss my survival against all odds.

Speaking of odds, I've long wondered about "records." If records of high and low temperatures have only been kept since the Victorian period, considering that there are 365 days per year, isn't it mathematically very likely that in every year, new records will be set on one day or another?

But alas! Because of the sloppy reporting which results when journalists are intimidated I keep asking such questions. And now, all I can do is repeat myself:

How long have these "records" been kept, and what is the reference point for determining normal? Suppose no one had ever kept records until today. Wouldn't that mean that on every day forward for the first year, each day's temperature would set a new record for that day?

In year two, each day would have either a higher or a lower temperature, right? So, on any given day, there would either be a record low temperature or a record high temperature. As time went by, there would necessarily be fewer and fewer record temperatures, and an "average" would emerge.

How long have these records been kept? What are the mathematical odds of a record high temperature in the next five years? For all we know, it might be abnormal not to have a record in five years.

I'm not a statistician, but I smell something odd going on.

Has anyone run the numbers?

Don't expect me to run the numbers. As it is, I risk my life when I run at all.

posted by Eric on 06.10.08 at 10:14 AM





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Comments

Hotter every year? Apparently not since the 1930's.

rmark   ·  June 10, 2008 10:31 AM

It is like league tables ranking countries on social (or whatever) performance. Means very little with no context. Think about it... if every country were truly equal then the rankings would be random, but you can't tell from a league table what the ranks mean. Same with temperature. If there was no true variation from an average value for millenia then the statement "hottest on record" is also a meaningless consequence of noise and the longer you wait the more likely you are to get a measurement that exceeds the previous record.

Chefen   ·  June 10, 2008 10:58 AM

We can't have accurate measurements of just about anything from longer ago than mayby 40 years.

Tolerances just weren't great enough until we got computers involved and really, really accurate measuring instruments.

The margin of error in a temperature taken 100 years ago iss probably at least one or two factors of 10 greater than today. They couldn't measure ten thousandths of an inch much less have tolerances in that range.

As for anything to do with the poles, nobody had ever even seen them more than 100 years ago, much less measured the ice or the temperature.

The temperature of the Earth has been cyclical since its creation but now the same cycles are all caused by us.

Global Worming, the narcissus relgion.

Veeshir   ·  June 10, 2008 12:10 PM

Oh I know I shouldn't go here because Veeshir just made a simple spelling error. BUT...this Global Worming is something I might be able to get behind. Maybe Eric wouldn't mind running to get us all some fishing poles?

Penny   ·  June 10, 2008 01:30 PM

We use the air conditioner about three days a year, to cut the humidity. Our climate in Central Illinois is a few degrees warmer than Philadelphia's.

A couple of years ago I put a vent fan in the attic, and replaced the attic access cover with a screen. The air chimneys up through the house and into the attic, which keeps everything cool.

Loren Heal   ·  June 10, 2008 03:35 PM

Things are pretty hot here, but so far nobody's said anything about global warming. I sense that attentions are waning on this issue. Especially after the unusually cold spring.

The comments on that site are great, as they always are when global warming is the subject. The believers are always ready to cite cry climate when it's hot and weather when it's cold, sometimes in the same post and not notice the inconsistency. The deniers can be silly too, but ultimately, they're right and usually make more sense.

Veeshir, I agree totally. The earth is a collection of billions of micro-climates. Take a temperature, move 10 feet in any direction and do it again and you'll get a different result. So we have had accurate tempertaure readings for, at most, the time of weather satellites. And yet the warming enthusiasts claim we know to within A TENTH OF A DEGREE!!!! the average global temperature of the earth for the last 150 years! For most of that time, 99% of the earth wasn't within 100 miles of a thermometer.

Apart from the fact that there is nothing unsual about the climate patterns, to me the best evidence that the pro-warming scientists are wrong is how shamelessly they overstate the evidence. If they were confident they were right, they would be more honest. And another thing--while there may be millions of people who believe in global warming, there aren't 10 people who act like they believe it.

tim maguire   ·  June 10, 2008 06:42 PM

I have no A/C in Ohio and do fine. A fan keeps the air moving.

If records are kept for a hundred years, you'd expect a one in a hundred chance of breaking the high each day, if nothing is happening. With 365 days, and two records available each day (high and low), you'd expect seven records to be set each year in the normal course of unchanging events.

News is not about any of that. News is a business. Its product is eyeballs. They sell eyeballs to advertisers.

The chief source of reliable eyeballs is soap opera women, who do not require any news that's hard to produce. Stories like the one you saw are the things that attract them.

Message : don't tune away.

More at eleven.

Ron Hardin   ·  June 10, 2008 07:47 PM

For the record, I usually call it Global Worming. That was not a spelling error.

Veeshir   ·  June 11, 2008 08:22 AM

For global climate records and the problems thereof, I would direct all readers to the following most excellent site:

http://www.climateaudit.org/

Jardinero1   ·  June 11, 2008 10:14 AM

Those interested in the problem of records and temperature information may also find this synopsis at my campaign web site useful for understanding some of the serious problems with the global warming claims.

Clayton E. Cramer   ·  June 11, 2008 04:17 PM

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