Classical Values :: ITER Is The Fusion Reactor Of The Future

June 10, 2008

ITER Is The Fusion Reactor Of The Future

In fact from the look of things it may always be the Fusion Reactor of The Future.

A massive international nuclear fusion experiment planned for Cadarache, France, is set to cost up to 30% more than anticipated and be delayed by as much as three years, governments will learn next week.

Construction has not even begun on the ITER fusion reactor, which has been beset by political wrangling since its inception. Now its seven international backers are to be told they will have to come up with an extra €1.2 billion-1.6 billion (US$1.9 billion-2.5 billion) on top of its current € 5-billion construction budget if the project is to be realized.

A report from a group of scientific advisers says the additional money is needed for critical design changes and for coordinating between the participant nations. And the experiment, already delayed, will not be completed until anywhere from one to three years after its current 2018 due date.

Critics expect more cost hikes. "Personally, I think the price will double before it's done," says Stephen Dean, president of Fusion Power Associates, a research and educational foundation based in Gaithersburg, Maryland.

Let me see if I can guess a little about the problems. This phrase "coordinating between the participant nations" particularly stood out. Usually what that means in government speak is lavish parties disguised as conferences at exotic destinations.

And the redesign? Some of the problems were known for twenty years. They were only addressed after the initial design was completed. First you sell the sizzle. Then, when the customer has bought in, you advise that the steak will cost extra.

I hinted at this in my piece The Secret Of The Tokamak.

Here is the dirty little tokamak secret - "The last one didn't work, shows no promise of working, and new difficulties have been encountered. I have a plan. We will make the next one 3X bigger." For 40 years.

Eventually the marks wise up.

The US cut ITER out of the Federal Budget earlier this year. Maybe it was not just a move by Congress to PO Bush. Maybe it had something to do with Congress actually paying attention to the real experts.

I have heard rumors that Congress is interested in the Bussard Fusion Reactor. If it works out (Bussard Fusion Reactor Funded) ITER (a tokamak design) would be a waste. Or as Plasma Physicist Dr. Nicholas Krall said, "We spent $15 billion dollars studying tokamaks and what we learned about them is that they are no damn good."

I think the problem with the Euros is that they are slow learners. Stephen Dean nails it at the end of the piece quoted above:

Dean anticipates that the new budget will ultimately be approved. "This thing has gotten a life of its own -- it's almost irrelevant how much it costs or what it's for."

At least it is on their dime. Mostly.

Cross Posted at Power and Control

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posted by Simon on 06.10.08 at 06:28 AM

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Comments

A government project only 30% over budget? That is better than normal performance. Unfortunately they are not done yet.

Daran · June 10, 2008 08:05 AM

The long running Tokamak fiasco is the most egregious example of scientific fraud in history. Forty years, billions of dollars and the waste of thousands of physists' life long careers for nothing.

Bob S · June 10, 2008 08:09 AM

Funny Daran, I was thinking the same thing. God how we've been conditioned!

30% over-budget sounds ok. Even the thing about it ultimately costing double, my first reaction was, well, if it works, that's managable.

tim maguire · June 10, 2008 06:54 PM

I like Jerry Pournelle's proposals for this stuff; offer a prize of XXX billion dollars for something that works. Manned Lunar colonies, solar power generated in orbit and beamed down, fusion reactors; whatever. It almost doesn't matter what the prize amount is; if it works, it'll be a bargain at ANY price.

If it doesn't work, then it will be a waste of SOMEBODY ELSE'S money.

Ken Mitchell · June 11, 2008 08:01 PM

It's sort of like the Concorde Fallacy, in that there are too many players now too invested in the thing to let it go - but unlike the Concorde Fallacy in that at least THAT boondoggle actually worked, though it was never commercially viable!

persiflage · June 11, 2008 08:58 PM

Well, all I can say is it better not work. Otherwise I'm gonna end up stuck with all that palladium I've been stockpiling in my basement...

Ignorance is Bliss · June 11, 2008 09:17 PM

Daran, it's possible that in the end the tokamak may end up a failed design, but to call it "scientific fraud" is beyond irresponsible. You have no evidence of fraud whatsoever, and I think you should retract the comment.

David · June 12, 2008 02:49 AM

Hopefully ITER will retire early, like a good European, and we can go on to something that might actually work.

Ignorance is Kiss · June 12, 2008 03:07 AM

Containing a hot plasma well enough to extract energy from fusion is a damned tough task, but over the decades plasma physicists have learned enough that they have good reasons to be hopeful. ITER can reasonably be expected to work and make you doubters look foolish.

The Monster from Polaris · June 12, 2008 05:17 AM

Fraud is a pretty good description of getting billions in commitments for a design that was known to be flawed.

In real engineering you fix the flaws at a smaller scale. Or announce that the reason for building at the current scale is that the fixes can't be done on a smaller scale. None of that was done before the plan was drawn up.

M. Simon · June 12, 2008 06:03 PM