It's Mayor Nutter

I've been watching as the results in the Philadelphia Mayor's race trickle in and while Michael Nutter and Tom Knox were initially even, an early trend began to favor Nutter, and it escalated from there.

Based on the results, at this point, I think it's fair to call the race for Michael Nutter :

Michael Nutter (D) 57,151 35%
Tom Knox (D) 45,487 28%
Robert Brady (D) 29,115 18%
Chaka Fattah (D) 23,094 14%
Dwight Evans (D) 8,501 5%
And the same website, five minutes later:
Michael Nutter (D) 61,906 35%
Tom Knox (D) 48,916 28%
Robert Brady (D) 31,250 18%
Chaka Fattah (D) 24,431 14%
Dwight Evans (D) 9,404 5%
As I explained in an earlier post, the Inquirer was the kingmaker, as Tom Knox had been ahead before their endorsement, and Nutter surged ahead soon after. (They can do that.)

Despite my concerns about him, I'll say this for Nutter; he'll be a better mayor than Mayor Street.

Nutter will have to face a Republican in the general election, but in a hugely Democratic city, that will be little more than a formality.

UPDATE: At 9:55 p.m., with 70% of the vote in, the trend is now statistically irreversible:

Michael Nutter (D) 70,802 36%
Tom Knox (D) 56,650 28%
Robert Brady (D) 35,778 18%
Chaka Fattah (D) 26,905 13%
Dwight Evans (D) 11,016 5%

MORE (10:30 p.m.): With 85% of the vote in, the percentages remain about the same:

Michael Nutter (D) 87,046 36%
Tom Knox (D) 64,588 26%
Robert Brady (D) 40,520 17%
Chaka Fattah (D) 34,642 14%
Dwight Evans (D) 17,918 7%
Philadelphia has over 1 million registered voters.

Unless my math or my reasoning is wrong, what this means is that the votes of approximately ten percent of the city's registered voters have just elected the city's mayor.

That's leverage.

(And it's democracy.)

MORE: With 90% in, the results are unchanged, but Chaka Fattah is gaining on Brady:

Michael Nutter (D) 94,561 35%
Tom Knox (D) 66,835 26%
Robert Brady (D) 41,768 16%
Chaka Fattah (D) 38,096 15%
Dwight Evans (D) 20,401 8%
Interesting. I originally predicted that Fattah would come in third, and I was suprised by Brady's strong showing. It now seems that Fattah's supporters are being heard from.

AND MORE: I know I'm liveblogging a dead election (which is probably worse than Dead-blogging the Oscars), but I'm just fascinated by the way Chaka Fattah continues to move ahead. With 94% of the vote in, he's a hair away from stealing third place from Brady!

Michael Nutter (D) 101,502 37%
Tom Knox (D) 69,078 25%
Robert Brady (D) 42,689 15%
Chaka Fattah (D) 41,738 15%
Dwight Evans (D) 21,832 8%
Yeah, I know I should have watched the Giuliani versus Ron Paul smashemup, but as the saying goes, all politics is local.

LAST UPDATE FOR TONIGHT (11:23 p.m.): With 96% in, KYW has put a red checkmark next to Nutter and seems to have shut down the election feeds, but if the trend continues, I'd say Fattah may take third place by a squeaker before the night's out!

Michael Nutter (D) 103,885 37%
Tom Knox (D) 69,862 25%
Robert Brady (D) 43,050 15%
Chaka Fattah (D) 42,916 15%
Dwight Evans (D) 22,212 8%
I think that's enough nonsense for one evening.

posted by Eric on 05.15.07 at 09:40 PM





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Comments

Color me stupid and ill-informed. I knew some stuff about Nutter and I like the fact that he seems to be reform minded. I'm not thrilled with the smoking ban, but I was able to overlook it. However, I'm really disturbed that he's pushing for breed specific legislation. As a new owner of a sweet rescued pit bull that would have been a deal breaker for me if only I'd realized it. Clearly, I should be reading your blog more often. Maybe I'll be voting Republican come November. Mayor Taubenberger has a nice ring don't you think?

Melissa   ·  May 16, 2007 10:49 AM

I can overlook a lot of things too, but not that. Maybe someone will ask him whether he meant it and he can issue a clarification.

Eric Scheie   ·  May 16, 2007 11:19 AM

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