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March 27, 2009
Keep An Eye On Polywell
Agora Financials has something interesting to say about Polywell Fusion. "Polywell fusion technology could be the biggest monkey wrench in the history of markets," writes our technology adviser Patrick Cox. If you're unfamiliar (we certainly were), fusion is often tagged as one potential "fuel of the future." Instead of splitting atoms, like the nuclear fission we use today, it fuses them.Yep. I do take issue with one point. I think energy at 1% of today's cost is a long ways into the future if it ever comes. However, estimates of 10% of current costs are certainly reasonable with initial production units coming in at 50% of current electrical energy costs. All of which assumes it will work. Which is so far unproven. However, the work the US Navy is doing could provide the proof - one way or the other. More money (a few tens of millions) would give us the answer faster. If the answer is positive a net power producer test reactor at a cost of $100 million or so (engineering, fabrication, tests) would be in order. If that worked out we could go ahead on an electrical power generating unit and production facilities at a probable investment cost of $1 billion. However, a billion in investment money would not be hard to raise at that point. Bussard's IEC Fusion Technology (Polywell Fusion) Explained Cross Posted at Power and Control posted by Simon on 03.27.09 at 03:47 PM
Comments
Work such as Polywell is doing is the only small scale fusion I have any confidence in. I don't understand Blacklight and doubt the premise or promise of cold fusion. The huge "official" projects, using Laser and ITER, may very well still be designing and refining in 2050 w/o conclusions. ITER began in 1985 and is now predicting net power in 2016. Big fusion projects have kept scientists funded and fascinated and demanded no results. Meanwhile they are treated well. What's not to like? China may get their big fusion running. They begin from what is known. They probably won't copy the ITER or provide funding w/o results for thirty years. K · March 27, 2009 06:29 PM Transporting food would be cheaper, transporting water to the food would be cheaper and making fertilizer/pesticides would be cheaper, but I don't see other savings. Pharmaceutical development won't save money with cheaper power. Movies, video games won't drastically drop in price. The cost to recycle goes way down; the cost to dig resources out of the ground drops, but the markets spike - no net change in the cost for many goods. and the military/terror implications will keep the fusion reactors themselves away from civilians, so we'll be relying on electrical power and hydrogen power -indirect energy storage. So less savings than imagined. dustydog · March 28, 2009 08:31 AM |
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