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October 26, 2008
Worth A Bucket
The folks at Hillbuzz have managed to corner a Real Pollster™ to find out what is really going on in this election. I was having dinner a night ago with a friend of mine who is a statistician for a well-regarded private polling company. They do some work for Republicans in California, but most of the work they do is for Democrats or Democrat-leaning operations (Unions, etc.). Anyway, her shop was retained to do a few Presidential polls for targetted states on behalf of a union so the union could decide where to spend their ad dollars for the last week. They did Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Missouri. After mocking the hell out of the voter id spreads used by Rassmussen, Zogby, etc. (and this is coming from a committed Dem who will be voting for Barry O) she said the results of their polling lead her to believe that McCain will definitely win FL, OH, NC, MO and NV. She says Obama definitely wins New Mexico. She said that Colorado and New Hampshire were absolute dead heats. She said she thinks there is a 55% chance Obama holds on in Pennsylvania and a 75% chance McCain wins Virginia. She absolutely laughed at the public polls showing Obama leading Virginia-and pointed out that all of those polls rely on Dem turnout being +4 and as much as +7, when in 2006, Republicans actually had the advantage by +3. She also pointed out that the numbers for Obama in SWVA look absolutely awful and that McCain is running 10 points better then Allen did in NoVa.And how about the public polls? She said she has very little doubt that the public polling is part of a "concerted voter suppression effort" by the MSM. She said IBD/TIPP was the only outfit doing public polling that was "worth a bucket of warm piss".And what do I have to say to that? Those of you who have been paying attention can see it coming. Cross Posted at Power and Control posted by Simon on 10.26.08 at 12:31 PM
Comments
FWIW, I live in "The Peoples Republic" of Lawrence, KS. This is the home of the University of Kansas and rivals Madison or Berkley for a far left environment. I drove around this morning looking at yard signs. The McCain/Palin signs were few and far between as might be expected. Who wants to have their property damaged? The amazing thing however, is that you see an Obo sign in no more than 1 in 20 houses. Lots of other signs (local issues), but not many Obos. Could the left actully be having a second thought? Mike · October 26, 2008 04:19 PM FWIW, I live in "The Peoples Republic" of Lawrence, KS. This is the home of the University of Kansas and rivals Madison or Berkley for a far left environment. I drove around this morning looking at yard signs. The McCain/Palin signs were few and far between as might be expected. Who wants to have their property damaged? The amazing thing however, is that you see an Obo sign in no more than 1 in 20 houses. Lots of other signs (local issues), but not many Obos. Could the left actully be having a second thought? Mike · October 26, 2008 04:19 PM FWIW, I live in "The Peoples Republic" of Lawrence, KS. This is the home of the University of Kansas and rivals Madison or Berkley for a far left environment. I drove around this morning looking at yard signs. The McCain/Palin signs were few and far between as might be expected. Who wants to have their property damaged? The amazing thing however, is that you see an Obo sign in no more than 1 in 20 houses. Lots of other signs (local issues), but not many Obos. Could the left actully be having a second thought? Mike · October 26, 2008 04:20 PM I live in NE TN but work all over SW VA (all up and down the Lonesome Pine Highway and over to Tazewell.) I see a few Obama signs, and alot of McCain signs. I've also seen a couple large signs where 'Obama' has been inked out but names like Boucher and Warner remain. They have been like that for a couple weeks now, so I don't think they are vandalism, just a commentary on the state of the Democrat Party in SW VA. ThomasD · October 26, 2008 04:53 PM M. Simon, Okay if I make a yard sign with "Don't give it to him/Make him steal it?" I figure my lefty neighbors won't "get" it and thereby property will survive, but other um... non-obmanites (Balks at calling self right, being more of , sort of, "Laissez Faire, Laissez Passer" and "Government, leave me alone" sort of person) will see it and take heart. Portia · October 26, 2008 06:04 PM Simon, "from your mouth to God's ears." Well, your keyboard, that is - and who knows, maybe Jewish mothers do say "from your keyboard to God's email" these days. Assistant Village Idiot · October 27, 2008 12:58 PM Post a comment
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