Classical Values :: Lest We Forget

April 25, 2008

Lest We Forget

Further eco-folly from long ago, a few Paul Ehrlich quotes for your enjoyment. The first is from 1970...

I'm scared. I have a 14 year old daughter whom I love very much. I know a lot of young people, and their world is being destroyed. My world is being destroyed. I'm 37 and I'd kind of like to live to be 67 in a reasonably pleasant world, and not die in some kind of holocaust in the next decade.

Actually, he'll be 76 on May 29th. Meanwhile, back in 1974 he had this to say...

There are, indeed, "hard times a-coming." Even if there is no final boom and bust, the economic world of the near future will be a very different place from that of today...

The vast diversity of businesses that manufacture and distribute the goods of our "cowboy" economy will have largely disappeared.

Most of the Japanese firms that today shower us with electronic gadgets will have gone defunct as Japan's situation deteriorates, and the higher costs of necessities will have so reduced demand for television sets, radios, tape decks, and the like that few new firms will have entered the market.

Similarly, a wide array of non-essentials, from convenience foods to recreational vehicles, will have largely vanished...

Probably before 1985, a general recognition of the changed economic status of the nation will lead to a stock-market collapse even more severe than the one that preceded the onset of the depression of the 1930s....it is very likely that before the end of the century the stock market, as we know it, will disappear as a factor in the lives of individuals...

The most unnecessary, wasteful, and antisocial activities-such as the packaging and bottling industries, some kinds of weapons, aircraft, cheap plastic products, etc.-are likely to be eliminated either in a conventional depression or the real energy crunch.

Just one more? Please? I'll keep it really short.

"I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000."

posted by Justin on 04.25.08 at 11:33 AM

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Comments

"I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000."

Hmmm...

To play Devil's Advocate, might he have been thinking of the EU?

Eric Scheie · April 25, 2008 11:36 AM

Eric, hehehe, good one. That prediction would have been closer to true, eh?

Unfortunately for Paul, he meant England as a modern nation with a functioning government that bore any relation to our current concept of England.

Interesting anecdote: In the 1980's I was a member of the Prometheus Society (prometheussociety.org) - I was actually even president for a few years - and was a frequent contributor to Gift of Fire, its journal. Ehrlich qualified for membership at one point and wrote a few things. Most of the membership fawned over him, perhaps excited by the implied legitimacy his presence gave to us IQ geeks. There were a few of us, however, who challenged him, as some of his predicitons were already going wrong.

Ehrlich was quite huffy about this and discontinued contributing. The entire incident was one among many that led to my resigning from the society.

Caveat: It may have been Triple Nine instead of Prometheus. I will check my records. Maybe I can even uncover what he was predicting in the late 80's!

Assistant Village Idiot · April 25, 2008 12:13 PM

Perhaps he should have written in quattrains.

Lovernios · April 25, 2008 02:00 PM

I'm afraid that the way things are going, he might have only been 30 years off. We're out of cheap oil, and we'll soon (if we haven't already) hit world peak production. We're living in interesting times indeed. Alternatives simply can't come online fast enough, and cheaply enough, to make a difference within five years. Expect shortages and rationing by 2010.

Cervus · April 26, 2008 10:42 PM