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April 02, 2008
Core Support
James Edmund Pennington says in a piece at The American Thinker what I have been saying in comments here and there for several weeks. He says that Obama has the nomination locked. Why does he say that? Because Democrats can afford to lose an election. They cannot afford to alienate their core supporters. The current agony of the Democratic Party, which grows more acute every day, is laden with an unspoken truth. As the unending Clinton-Obama struggle drags on, the core unutterable reality for Democrats is simply this: because of the composition of the Party's domestic coalition, its continued electoral viability makes absolutely necessary perpetual capture of 90+% of the black vote.The anti-racist party is racist to the core. i.e. Barack is their affirmative action candidate. So why is Hillary going on if she knows this? And believe me the wife of the first Black President must know this. If she can't win the marbles she is going to destroy the game. A scorched earth policy. If she can't have it, it will not be worth having. The only question is: how badly will this hurt the down ticket races? My guess? Badly. Very badly. The House is gone. The Senate could easily turn as well. Let me add one further prediction. The Democrat nomination race will go on until the convention. Why? A decision before then would cost them a significant fraction of Hillary supporters. That alienated support would have time to organize demonstrations or worse outside the D convention. So there will be no decision until the convention votes. Cross Posted at Power and Control posted by Simon on 04.02.08 at 07:03 AM
Comments
I'm not convinced the Democrats are able to act so calculatedly. They may want to, but I don't think enough of them have the discipline or foresight to pull it off. My opinion is that, no matter how the other numbers shake out, if Hillary gets a strong win in Pennsylvania then she has the inside line on this nomination. I hope you're right on the down-ticket affect of the primary race, but I'm doubtful there too. The opening may be presented, but so far as I can see, the Republicans are not doing the sort of "next generation" candidate grooming they need to to take advantage of the opportunity. tim maguire · April 2, 2008 10:31 AM Simon, Do you think that Obama is due the nomination because of his practically unsurpassable lead in pledged delegates, his lead in the popular vote in the states that followed the rules, a steadily increasing share of committed superdelegates, and because he's pretty much out-politicked any and all presidential candidates this cycle? Or is it perhaps simpler to dismiss his candidacy because he's 1/2 black? One shouldn't let one's hatred of the Democratic Party and affirmative action lead one to discredit a hard-fought and well deserved win by a truly remarkable candidate. Just one opinion. I thought your blog could use a little diversity of thought. Oh, and it's *Democratic* Party, not Democrat Party, by the way. Name calling by members of the so-called Grand Old Party (a name more applicable with its new standardbearer) is very unbecoming. Cheers, Cliff · April 2, 2008 12:52 PM SeniorD, I'd say that was another reason to put off the decision as long as possible. Cliff, I think Obama is due the nomination because it will cause a Republican landslide and ruin the Democrat Brand for decades to come. But I do see your point. A win for Barack in Wyoming will definitely make up for the loss of NY. NJ. FL. OH. PA. etc. And Cliff YOU spelled it wrong. It is the DemoKKKrat Party. The Party of God Damn America. What a winning campaign slogan. Almost as good as "The Audacity of Hope" don't ya think? M. Simon · April 2, 2008 01:22 PM It is the DemoKKKrat Party. The Party of God Damn America. What a winning campaign slogan. That may be overstating reality, but it is not overstating perception. As I commented to M. Simon recently on his other blog, Obama's associates and supporters have been, with or without Obama's approval (a point which really doesn't matter anyway) spewing racialism and anti-Americanism at a rate that must be alienating moderate voters in droves. Not long ago many Republicans were all but conceding the White House to the Dems, on account of the latter being more enthusiastic and well-funded. They apparently forgot about the Dems' tendency to tear each other apart during primary season - thus not only doing most of the eventual GOP nominee's own dirty work for them, but expending most of the Dems' own aforementioned enthusiasm and wealth to do so. Joshua · April 2, 2008 09:38 PM Joshua, Yes. M. Simon · April 3, 2008 03:35 AM |
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Simon,
The Thinking Democrat Caucus already knows the Primary outcome and likely the General Election outcome. The reason no decision until the Convention is to keep the Unions in line. Watch what happens to the Democrat Party when the Unions realize their candidate has nothing for them.