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March 14, 2008
Parsley, Wright, Obama, and time
I've just been watching Barack Obama on the hot seat at Fox News -- doing his best to defend himself in the face of the Jeremiah "GOD DAMN AMERICA" Wright stuff. They're running the Wright videos over and over and Obama is clearly feeling the heat. Some of the commentators raised the issue of the Reverend Rod Parsley and the Republicans, and played some especially outrageous statements by Parsley. Once again, I don't think candidates are responsible for positions and remarks of people who endorse them, but in egregious cases (which Wright is), the candidates should denounce them. FWIW, I think the timing of the Wright videos on national television is a long-term disaster for the Republicans. I've known about this stuff for a long time, but I think the media focus right now will do little more than help Hillary. It also puts her in a great position to later slam McCain for Obamanations from the penumbra of the innumerable bigoted endorsers -- like Parsley and Hagee -- that he will have accumulated. Quite disingenuously, Mother Jones is calling Parsley "McCain's spiritual guide" when he's nothing of the sort. But he's sure as hell a bigot, and there will be plenty of videos like this. Whether it's honest won't matter. Yes, I question the timing. The Clintons have known about this Jeremiah Wright stuff for ages, but its release right now couldn't be better planned from a strategic standpoint, and it will make for very effective campaigning. It would have been easy for McCain to beat Obama, but at this point I don't think he'll get the chance. Unfortunately, for a variety of reasons, many Republicans want Hillary Clinton to be McCain's opponent. If Hillary wins, only some of them will regret it. UPDATE: Republicans for Hillary Should be Careful What They Vote For. MORE: Via Glenn Reynolds, a very insightful post from Instapunk, who thinks that the video has doomed Obama, and possibly Hillary as well. ...the video excerpts from the sermons of Jeremiah Wright are the only significant revelation that occurred this week. (Ferraro's faux-pas will be as insignificant as she is in two weeks time.) They are also fatal to Obama's chances of winning the presidency. They are probably equally fatal to Hillary Clinton's chances of winning the presidency. It's up to the Democrat Party to figure out how to deal with the catastrophe, but catastrophe it is, and there are multiple reasons why.I agree that the Wright stuff may very well have doomed Obama, although I don't think it has doomed Hillary. As a result, I think it may ultimately hurt John McCain. Timing is everything. Had the release of the videos been occurred after Obama's nomination, they'd have assured McCain's victory. As it is, Hillary has the most to gain, and I think the dust will subside, because as I've tried to make clear, nothing really hurts the incredibly dirty Clintons. Regardless of the merits of any of the arguments about the videos (and I think Wright is a despicable character), I think Instapunk is right to say Obama's candidacy is doomed. This is not good for the Republicans. More here. And Rick Moran sees a "scorched earth" policy: The Clinton campaign has declared total war - on Obama, on the party, on the media, on basically anyone who is in their way. It is a campaign quite unlike any the Democrats have seen since perhaps 1860 when Stephen Douglas refused to step aside for the good of the party and ended up driving the Dixiecrats out of the convention to put up their own candidate thus assuring the election of a Republican.I think the Clintons will make the most of it, the Democratic Party will recover, and the two "factions" will reunite and blame the Republicans. (With media help, naturally.) The "unity" -- and the "healing" -- after a horrible campaign will be oh-so-touching. (Forgive my cynicism, but I see it coming.) posted by Eric on 03.14.08 at 10:25 PM
Comments
My wife were also watching Fox. Then we switched to CNN, and BO said the exact same things. A rehersed speech. LYNNDH · March 14, 2008 11:06 PM Nope. This is going to fracture the Dems. Badly. Think about what happens in the Black Community if Obama doesn't get the nomination. M. Simon · March 15, 2008 02:51 AM "This is not going to sink McCain." I didn't say it would sink McCain; only that Hillary might (if Obama loses). She has a far, far better chance of beating McCain than Obama ever would, which is why I question the motives of the Republicans who support her. Hmmm... Perhaps "support" is too strong a word. Some Republicans -- like Ann Coulter, Pat Buchanan, Mike Cunningham -- have stated that they would vote for her if she is McCain's opponent. Others (the Limbaugh camp) advocate voting for Hillary now in a crossover "strategy." It is believed that this will assist Democratic Party chaos, ultimately to the benefit of the GOP. Short term, it will. But once the Dems get their act together, it will be all out war on McCain -- and my fix on this is that if the Clintons are on the top of the ticket, Hillary has a much better chance of winning than Obama ever would. Right now, they are perfectly happy to ignore the Republican attacks on Obama, but in the Fall, the Democratic Party will be able to play the "victims of Republican racism" game. I think there is a third group of GOP Hillary supporters who haven't been much discussed, consisting of those whose who confuse hatred (or fear) of Obama with strategy, and who are pessimistic about Republican chances in the Fall, so they believe they should pick the Democratic winner now. I don't think this is a Republican victory strategy at all, but emotional pessimism. I can understand why Republicans would want to undermine the Democrats, but for the life of me I cannot understand how helping their strongest candidate will do that. "Think about what happens in the Black Community if Obama doesn't get the nomination." There will be anger. If Obama is on the ticket (in the number two spot), it will subside. Plenty of black politicians already support Hillary, such as Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter, and no one seems to care. I don't think disappointed black Obama voters are going to vote for McCain. The only question is whether they'll sit it out. Towards the Fall, I'd expect a major push explaining to them how Obama was systematically destroyed by the right wing attack machine. (Obama might even go along with it.) Eric Scheie · March 15, 2008 09:26 AM I stumbled into a Nov 22 2004 Imus interview of Obama and put it here The last minute or so lost when the affiliate cut away on the clock. Two interesting things, one, that he sounds reasonable, and two, that he seems to admire Imus when he said he never liked Imus after the nappy ho pretend-outrage, showing that he lies depending on the winds. Anyway there's no hope and change chant yet, so that turn-off is missing completely. Ron Hardin · March 15, 2008 09:34 AM Send this video to others: Shame On Joe Scarborough, MSM & Obama the way they reacted to Rev. Jeremiah Wright's sermon about 9/11 Part 1 Tom · March 17, 2008 12:46 PM Post a comment
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"....It would have been easy for McCain to beat Obama, but at this point I don't think he'll get the chance......"
Oh come on. This is not going to sink McCain. Don't start getting the vapors, Eric, or you'll sound like Andrew Sullivan.