Nate Silver over at Five-thirty-eight is clinging to hope. His latest headline reads:

Incumbents Polling Below 50 Percent Often Win Re-Election, Despite Conventional Wisdom

So I wrote him a little something to cheer him up.

Nate,

You sound like me in 2008. Every tiny spark of hope magnified into a lightning flash. Look at what is happening in AZ. A no name, no money, rocket scientist is statistically tied (latest numbers show her two points ahead) with a 4 term incumbent.

Morale keeps going up on the R side. Races that were not even on the radar become first competitive and then fugedaboutit. The fire wall is not holding. Money is not working. A word from Sarah Palin and the money starts flowing. And her endorsement is GOLD. Politically and in terms of cash. She is going to have between 20 and 50 allies in the next Congress.

In fact Palin has been our shadow President ever since she stopped being Governor. The Democrat campaign to drive her from the Governorship of Alaska has epic failed. Oh. It worked all right. It just didn't have the intended consequences. She is stronger than ever. It is an old Jedi trick I'm told.

I believe, based on the zeitgeist, that a 100 seat change is within the reach of the Rs. If you are a Democrat you have to consider that the mood of the country is murderous. If you are an old school R the mood is horrible. If you are with the rebels it is looking very good.

Yeah. I'm with the Rebel Alliance. You're welcome.

Cross Posted at Power and Control