Just what we need

The situation in the Mideast is really looking ugly, and I think Allison Kaplan Summer (who has been quoted by Glenn Reynolds and David Bernstein), but it best:

"Israel appears to have stepped directly into a trap of a carefully planned suicide mission dressed up in the clothing of a humanitarian effort."
And what a trap.Things are escalating, dramatically, as we speak.

Turkey is threatening to go to war with Israel, and Turkey is a NATO member (with all the mutual defense obligations that entails). Moreover, we have a pacifistic president who also happens to be the most anti-Israel president in history. As Donald Sensing Daniel Jackson at Sense of Events put it,

this will be his FIRST disaster that will be clearly his own fault. Way to go, Dude.
A perfect storm.

UPDATE: I mistakenly confused Daniel Jackson with Donald Sensing. My apologies. Mistake corrected above.

posted by Eric on 06.02.10 at 12:17 PM










Comments

Apparently Turkey is hell-bent on provoking war with Israel. The good news is that our CinC doesn't have the balls to actually follow through on any of our NATO treaties.

Phelps   ·  June 2, 2010 1:02 PM

What are the odds that Netanyahu decided to throw Obama a little hot potato in return for his warm reception in the White House by President Absent.

M. Simon   ·  June 2, 2010 1:07 PM

I think NATO only kicks in if a member has been attacked. But the implications of a Turkish attack even if NATO treaties do not kick in are definitely unfortunate.

M. Simon   ·  June 2, 2010 1:12 PM

During the last presidential election, a lot of swing voters gambled on electing a president with no executive experience; thinking that this would result, at worst, in benign consequences. We are today teetering on the precipice of economic and foreign policy disasters, and the nominal leader of the free world is unwilling and incapable of true leadership.

Sadly, the Israelis will likely be the first to bear the brunt of harmful consequences caused by this administration's incompetence. Even worse, the Washington elites seem to be oblivious to the mine field that we find ourselves in at present.

TomA   ·  June 2, 2010 1:14 PM

Turkey is going to claim that Israel committed the first act of war if there is a naval engagement, regardless of what happens. There is a good chance that even if it is clear that Turkey started things, NATO could still unravel without an allied response because it would indicate that NATO is a two tiered system (everyone responds but only if the "real" members are attacked). The absurd part is that I'm actually undecided if that would be a good or bad thing.

Phelps   ·  June 2, 2010 1:23 PM

the old order is falling apart. nato good riddance.

newrouter   ·  June 2, 2010 7:49 PM

Turkish politicians talking about war is nothing more than the rattling of an empty scabbard.

The Turkish military remains a strong force for secularism within the Turkish state. The military does not serve the civilian authority, the military is a check on civilian authority.

It is highly doubtful the military is willing to engage in open hostilities with Israel, or any other nation unless it is a matter of national survival. The Turkish military is large and formidable, but Turkey is relatively poor, and the military would have serious problems re-building from any significant conflict. Failure to rebuild could mean a permanent loss of status within Turkish society.

So no Turkish politician will attempt to order the military into offensive action for fear that the military will not answer the call.

ThomasD   ·  June 2, 2010 11:28 PM

It wasn't a trap. It was a situation with no solution. Board the vessels in breach of the blockade or let them breach the blockade and make the blockade illegitimate. First option we get a "crisis". Second option, arms and militants flow into Gaza then they attack Israel and the same player side with Israel's enemies. This way, the hot war is can still possibly be avoided.

Everyone is squawking about Israel not understanding 4G war. But what they miss is Israel knows if the weapons start flowing they'll be in a 1G war, for their very survival. So maybe war one way, absolutely war the other.

If Turkey sends naval vessels to breach Israel's and Egypt's blockade of Gaza, it is an act of war. If Europe, the US, NATO, etc. side with the provocateur in that war, then this thing isn't going to stay in the eastern Med or the Israelis (Jews) will again be slaughtered in a fit of worldwide anti-semitism. We haven't seen a war for survival in a long time, PR just isn't a priority and they get nasty.

JKB   ·  June 3, 2010 1:56 PM

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