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October 10, 2009
Scary Saturday Graph
That's the biggest fall in employment ever. The good news is, once the trend bottoms out history suggests employment should bounce back strongly. The bad news is no one really knows when it will bottom out. And with the huge expansion of FHA, continued loss of employment could mean another massive financial crisis looming... posted by Dave on 10.10.09 at 01:44 PM
Comments
In absolute terms, this fall is actually the biggest ever, and it's the biggest percentage fall ever recorded in the EM ratio. The Depression and some of the Panics of the 1800s were almost certainly worse in percentage terms, but of course there's no EM ratio for those times. TallDave · October 10, 2009 10:18 PM I do agree with your overall sentiment, though: Difficulty is relative; overall we’re still in a period of unprecedented prosperity. The current nightmare EM ratio is about average for the 1980s, and better than the 70s, 60s, 50s, or 40s. Probably the most under-heralded statistic in economics is this: the median income of the 1950s is now roughly the poverty line (yes, that’s adjusted for inflation). Things may get a lot worse. They’ve certainly gotten bad faster and farther than ever before, at least in terms of the EM ratio. But we sit atop a mountain of cumulative productivity improvements, so they’ll have to get a lot worse before they justify some of the hyperbole being thrown around. TallDave · October 10, 2009 10:22 PM Post a comment
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In the first place this graph doesn't include the great depression so I doubt it is the worst drop ever. Likewise, it is cut off at 54%. Basically, this thing is slanted to emphasize the current drop in employment. Let me add I am not trying to be a cheer leader for the economy. The increase in the money supply and the employment problems are extremely troubling. We just need to avoid resorting to propaganda.