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April 05, 2008
Maliki Doesn't Give A Damn
I just got turned on to a blog that seems to have some very in depth knowledge of what is going on in Iraq. Talisman Gate. There is an entry up about the recent fighting in Iraq. Panic in the Green Zone. Let me quote a bit: Those counseling caution and delay stressed that smashing Sadrist-related criminal cartels would spark a large-scale Sadrist reaction across Iraq at a time when the Bush administration wants to keep Iraq quiet especially with the '4000' milestone that was being approached and got passed a couple of days ago. Another argument against action counseled that the Iranians are angling for a fire-fight to sully any talk of progress that Gen. Petraeus may give in a couple of weeks when he appears before Congress, and that the Democrats and their allies in the US media would take these images out of Basra and elsewhere and package the news as a "security meltdown"...That doesn't sound like a weak leader at all. That sounds like a "Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead kind of guy. It seems that much of the logistics for Operation Cavalry Charge were delivered through an airlift by the Iraqi Air Force because the military planners assumed that the outlaws would mine transportation routes in and out of Basra with IEDs. According to one source briefed on the campaign's logistics, the Iraqi Army in Basra (...I think we're talking about 3 Divisions that are in this fight) is amply supplied and overstocked with food, ammunition and spare parts, indicating that the planners are foreseeing a long campaign.So the Iraqis were handling their own logistics. Impressive. Operation Cavalry Charge is still in full effect and Maliki is brazenly saying that he hasn't signed a ceasefire with anyone. He's still out to arrest the criminals on his Most Wanted list, according to the press conference he held today in which he suggested that Sadr City too needed a clean-up.Let me quote the author's profile so you can get some idea who he is: Nibras KazimiI like that attitude. Now about those pregnant men. Cross Posted at Power and Control posted by Simon on 04.05.08 at 12:51 AM
Comments
I told folks last year that the AQI was clean-up and that the real aim was Sadr. His support had been dwindling for two years, with under 100k turning out in Sadr City back in 2006 and then only 7k turning out last year just as the Kazali crime network started to get uprooted. The big note is: if you can't protect you Chief of Supply and Spokesman, you have *no* power at all. Sadr couldn't protect Qais Kazali and his brother, and when their criminal network went, so did Sadr's easy resupply system... that started in MAY 07 and was going full steam by the time the surge got going and this last go-around, from Bill Roggio's place, has seen the entire set of Qods cells brought into replace the Kazalis taken out. The easy ratlines are gone and should *stay gone* this time around. And it is very, very telling that the ops in Barah continue.... my early analysis still holds: the 14ID was unprepared and understrength, especially for support brigades. The 10ID shifted what it could, and 9AD did a bit of heavier support. Iraq tried to pull this off on its own, and found its just not ready for that with green units. No surprise there. But only one Batallion cracked under pressure from the 14ID and that is amazing for a green Division. Now Iran has its hand up to its elbow in the cookie jar... and still the political class and MSM want to *ignore it*. In any event, the Sadrists have nowhere to run or hide, they can either drop their weapons and their pretenses or find themselves branded criminals. Those sticking to that insurgency will be seen as Iranian backed, funded, trained and supplied which is not how to win friends and influence folks in Iraq. With AQI on the run and Iran suddenly finding itself without most of its operational network of Qods/Hezbollah, the provincial elections should go relatively well this fall. And the first power shift in post-war Iraq will happen, and I bet there will be some really, really unhappy folks in Baghdad as their early post-war parties suddenly find themselves lacking organizational skills against Iraq Awakening. If the Sunni Arabs and Kurds can run the numbers and the provinces in the north and get inclusion on the Shia border tribes, as they've been doing, there may be a first of its kind, multi-ethnic coalition forming when the parliamentary elections are staged. The log jam is breaking up... because a green Division *held up* when, by rights, it should have disintegrated without full training and support in a major house to house battle. That ain't no 'Kasserine Pass' - more like stopping up the Fulda Gap with unprepared troops. All of this while outpacing the old '9 years to a half-life of COIN'. A miracle and all we hear are complaints and defeatism. Things are looking up for Iraq and have been going on three years now... America, not so much. ajacksonian · April 5, 2008 07:33 PM A.J, Trenchant as always. I especially liked: All of this while outpacing the old '9 years to a half-life of COIN'. A miracle and all we hear are complaints and defeatism. So true. BTW it is interesting that the Iraqi Army is being run on US lines vs Saddam's lines. i.e. Arabs are not reverting to form. The US training is sticking. One of the advantages of disbanding the Saddam's Iraqi Army. The American's showed them how to get their pride back. They have taken the opportunity and run with it. And now they have a police/Army of 700,000 inculcated with American values. A nice core for the future of Iraq. M. Simon · April 5, 2008 07:48 PM Post a comment
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During 2003-2004, I attended countless briefings and planning meetings regarding Sadr and the Mahdi Army. Too much forbearance on our part in removing Sadr's power back then has come back to haunt us time and again. The Iraqi transitional government at that time siad they would and would handle him, but it took 5 years for them to do so. At least they're starting to realize that allowing a leader and his armed forces to exist outside of governmental control is as dangerous to the Iraqis as it is to the US.