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February 09, 2008
Impossible endorsement
Today Huckabee won the Kansas caucus. But can he win the number of delegates he needs to win the nomination? What are the odds? Huckabee has won 181 delegates -- 533 less than McCain. To capture the Republican nomination, he would have to win more than 80 percent of the remaining contests.OK, what states are left? Maryland and Virginia are said to be lining up for McCain, so let's see.... No way. There are too many Northern states left, including Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Vermont. It might be scientifically possible, but in real life terms, it is impossible. Surely James Dobson knows this. So why did he endorse Huckabee after Romney withdrew from the race? Dobson stated that he will not vote for McCain under any circumstances, so surely he can't be hoping to get him on the ticket in the number two spot. Is it just anger, or might there be another reason? MORE: JUst got home and turned on the TV set. As of 11:07 p.m., Huckabee is winning in Louisiana, and Washington. (The latter is a surprise.) But according to the Lousiana rules, unless a candidate gets 50% of the vote, they'll be uncommitted. And Hillary is winning big in all states. This election continues to be unpredictable. MORE: Huckabee thinks he can still win: "I didn't major in math," Mr. Huckabee said in a speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference. "I majored in miracles, and I still believe in them, too."I don't know whether I'd call a Huckabee victory a miracle, or just incredibly bad luck. I think he may be becoming a protest vote against McCain. posted by Eric on 02.09.08 at 05:35 PM |
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Say the American people are trying to deadlock the race, as an expression that all the candidates suck. The 2nd place guy gets the votes, being the algorithm. The phenomenology being that the first place guy is disliked, so vote for the 2nd place guy.
Supppose that only candidates that provide soap-opera compatible stories have media legs.
Then a brokered convention bypasses the media, and the soap opera nomination process.