China Has Problems

A. Jacksonian says China Has Problems. He gives a long and detailed look at China's current situation (bad) and its future outlook (worse).

* He looks at economic problems - non-performing loans in the 30 - 60% of GDP range.

* Demographic problems - an aging population and too many men

* Ecological problems - rising lung cancer rates from pollution

* Lack of business accumen - drug dealers in America could do better

* Internet and cell phones breaking government control of information

* The break down of social cohesion

The short version: get your money out of China while it is worth something.

Cross Posted at The Astute Bloggers

posted by Simon on 03.01.07 at 08:49 PM





TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://classicalvalues.com/cgi-bin/pings.cgi/4698






Comments

Only a quarter to a third of the population has entered into the industrialized workplace. When that number hits fifty percent, without some kind of real reform of the business laws needed to allow more complex industry and service-sector business to exist, China will hit rocky waters. Until then, smooth sailing.

Jon Thompson   ·  March 2, 2007 03:43 AM

Where I live (Sunset district in San Francisco) probably 75% of the (very expensive) homes are owned by native Chinese who paid cash ($750k-$1.2 mil) having absconded from China with money accrued from taking bribes or stolen from the government (one of the NPLs spoken of in the article). I get this on the authority of my finance (native of Beijing) and our real estate agent (also native of Beijing). The smart/lucky ones are stealing all they can and hoping to get out before they get executed.

TheManTheMyth   ·  March 2, 2007 09:04 AM

I just showed this post and the linked article to my finance who read it with interest but pointed out to me that my "75%" figure re cash-paying recent Chinese officials was somewhat overstated--more like a third (the 75% figure was their rough approximation of the percentage of homes out here that are Chinese-owned, period--which sounds about right to me based on the fact that there are 16 Chinese restaurants within a two block radius of where I live and not a single non-Chinese restaurant withing about 12 blocks, etc.)

TheManTheMyth   ·  March 2, 2007 09:45 AM

Naaaah. What they might lack in quality they make up for in volume. It is still an emerging country. Growing pains are to be expected.

Of course a population weighted too heavily on the side of men is not a good omen.

Mrs. du Toit   ·  March 2, 2007 10:23 AM

The weighting towards men is actually something I do not address... that said, the weighting is coming from the rural cultural outlook wanting boys and the government's one-baby policy. What you get with just a bit more education is many young men and boys moving to cities, cutting off their cultural support, and finding relatively low-paying jobs that are *better* than what they left but have little mooring to their culture or their current economic outlook. Mix in the high level of technology for easy P2P communications and storage and the result is something that no longer looks like traditional Chinese culture: it has no familial basis, creates unstructured social affiliations and makes for a social atmosphere of anything that is not disallowed is ok to do. For the Government that has meant that sex is used as the main way to ridicule local and provincial government and undermine it as it is something that is not disallowed to talk about. And since women are at a premium they are doing an in-depth sexual analysis of the various government officials that they can get into bed and some are making *that* very public.

While delightful in conception, to think of staid Chinese officials having their personality undercut by their sexual lacks, it is also done without context to a larger society. In attempting to make the Government into that cohesional structure, its very amorphous nature makes it a target for ridicule that it can't counter easily. And unlike the Communist cure for the drug problem (shoot the users, the pushers, the growers, the distributers and their families) with so many *men* around you can't start going and killing off the women. Besides you would get even *less* respect because you can't own up to your own sexual lacks... which would make for a downward spiral that got very tight, very fast.

But that is just my take on things...

ajacksonian   ·  March 2, 2007 10:46 AM

Post a comment

You may use basic HTML for formatting.





Remember Me?

(you may use HTML tags for style)



March 2007
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
        1 2 3
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
11 12 13 14 15 16 17
18 19 20 21 22 23 24
25 26 27 28 29 30 31

ANCIENT (AND MODERN)
WORLD-WIDE CALENDAR


Search the Site


E-mail




Classics To Go

Classical Values PDA Link



Archives




Recent Entries



Links



Site Credits