Warning: brutal honesty follows. Reader discretion advised.

A few weeks ago, I wondered whether Barack Obama might be Hillary Clinton's stalking horse. And for the past week, I was so caught up in blogging about the blog scandal in John Edwards's um, campaign, that for a moment I almost forgot that he really isn't a serious candidate.

Even now, I pick up the paper, and it is abuzz with Obama talk. ("Barack the Vote!" blah blah blah.)

I hate to burst the netroots bubble, but I think that if we look at the big picture, this is all silly business. Unless something truly insane and unprecedented happens, Barack Obama has absolutely no chance of winning the nomination for president, nor does John Edwards. My or anyone else's speculations about whether either one is Hillary Clinton's stalking horse are silly.

It does not matter.

What matters is that Hillary Clinton is simply going to be The Candidate.

She doesn't need no stupid stalking horse.

It's been nearly a year since Walter Shapiro opined that for numerous reasons Hillary was an unstoppable juggernaut -- a view that has only become more painfully obvious since then.

Having way more money than anyone else, the best campaign organization headed by the best campaigner in American history, an early start, and name recognition fueled by the immense popularity of a husband who easily could have been elected overwhelmingly to a third term -- these things all not only count, they make her nomination a foregone conclusion.

To me, it's painfully obvious common sense -- and it is of course all borne out by the polls.

Real Clear Politics:

Clinton 37.4
Obama 17.8
Edwards 12.4

American Research Group breaks the race down by state, and in every state Clinton is way ahead of all the rest of the ostensible candidates. Her range is from 35% as high as 41% -- with everyone else in the teens or lower.

Opposition to Hillary amounts to tokenism, puffed up (in my view at least) by a left wing blogosphere out of touch with reality and a very willing media which likes to create the impression that real grassroots democracy is at work.

I would love nothing more than to be proved wrong about this, and if I am, it will be the biggest, longest running error in the history of this blog, as I have predicted a Hillary presidency for years.

In my view, the real clincher for me will prove to be tacit (passive aggressive) support from the Republican right wing, which is divided right now into two pitiful camps. One camp still engages in Hillary Denial, maintaining that she cannot win, that people don't really like her, and thus she will prove easy to beat. (An echo of the Democrats' early Ronald Reagan Denial.)

The other camp is now having the audacity to come out openly in support of Hillary. Not just her campaign, but of a Hillary administration. They think it will revive the right wing.

If you don't believe me about this, read the immortal words of Tom DeLay:

Hillary Clinton as president may be the best thing that ever happened to the conservative movement and the Republican Party.

Sure, the right wing think tankers will deny that they want Hillary to win, but I'd say the old fixeroo is in. They don't just want Hillary, they need her.

What really bothers me is what I think is an emerging new development. At the risk of sounding cynical, I think the right wing needs her so badly that they're more and more willing to sit back and forgo mounting a serious conservative challenge to Giuliani and McCain. If a Republican moderate "sellout" loses to Hillary, so much the better. The loss won't be blamed on "the right" (although the truth that will be missed is no right wing Republican could possibly beat her) and the Demonic Red Queen will be on the throne! There's no way that this will be seen as the fault of the "divided and dispirited" conservative GOP wing, and the latter can all happily "regroup" for the inevitable long march "back."

I feel like saying "spare me," but I should spare the clichés.

I think I'm going to need them.

UPDATE: I have to say that despite my darker fears, Giuliani is looking pretty darned good!

But will Tom DeLay and company vote for him?

Not if this interview is any indication.

AND MORE: Giuliani is a Native New Yorker. Normally, this wouldn't count for much. But if he runs against Hillary, he could remind everyone that he's actually from New York. (Where he used to prosecute criminals before his opponent's husband pardoned them....)

While he was at it, I suppose he could also ask whether anyone remembered the FALN terrorist pardons...