Running against an incumbent is tricky business!

Two heads are better than one.

It took Sean Kinsell to make me finally figure out Senator Rick Santorum's reelection strategy. After trying without much success to make sense out of his behavior, I've finally concluded that he's running an anti-incumbency campaign.

Politically speaking, running against an incumbent makes a lot of sense right now. The voters are fed up with incumbents, and the numbers are in. The latest polls indicate that being an incumbent sucks.

Here are the ominous numbers:

Incumbents 37%

New Person - 51%.

Why, that's almost the same spread as the distance between Santorum and his opponent (Bob Casey, a pro-life Democrat):
New Keystone Poll out in Pennsylvania and the news keeps getting worse for the current GOP number three in the Senate.

In the same poll in March Senator Santorum trailed by 1 point, in June by 7 points, in September by 13 points, and in the latest (Nov. 2 - 7) Casey leads by a whopping 16 points, 51% - 35%.

What this means, obviously, is that Rick Santorum can't run as a top Bush Senate honcho. He must become a new person. This poses problems, and here's the comment I left at White Peril:
"Pennsylvania is weird." Three truer words have not been spoken. But Santorum seems to equate weirdness with stupidity.

On Friday (Veterans Day, when politicians seem to love such things), Santorum raised the ante from a "scheduling conflict" to a full-blown assault on Bush for insufficiently strong language. This was at the same time, same state, as Bush's controversial speech, and was attributed to another scheduling conflict.

Santorum has my sympathy, as it must be tough facing a pro-life Democrat. But if he runs to the right of himself and Casey holds the center, I'm not sure there are enough Twomey-style voters to carry it for him.

If I didn't know any better, I'd almost swear that Santorum wants to be running against an incumbent. Not that there's anything wrong with an anti-incumbent strategy, mind you. But isn't Santorum overlooking something?

I guess that depends on whether Pennsylvania voters overlook the same thing. There's still a year between now and the election, so perhaps Santorum is counting on voters to have short memories.

There's always the Clintonesque strategy of running as an underdog.

posted by Eric on 11.13.05 at 07:51 AM





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Comments

In this case, were I there, I would have to vote for the Democrat, since he is (unusually for a Democrat) pro-life and since he is opposing Santorum. Santorum is still my enemy, though he is proving to be a quite worthy enemy, much worthier than the minions of the Left. I must say I almost love my enemy. If he leaves the Senate, I will miss him.



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