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November 05, 2006
Keeping the smell of defeat in the closet?
WARNING: This post is no fun. For that I apologize in advance. I'll try harder to be funnier in future posts just as soon as I can. There's an election Tuesday and I really, passionately hate elections. Yet despite this hatred, because I write this blog, I feel some sort of obligation to disclose my thoughts about the coming election. I hate that having that feeling of obligation, as it crowds my style. I'd rather talk about interesting things that aren't as polarizing as the election, things that people usually don't take the time to think about. Everyone is talking about the election and being pestered about it, so it almost strikes me as a betrayal of my readers to talk about what everyone else talks about simply because everyone else talks about it. The contradiction is that if I avoided talking about it, then I'd also feel as if I were betraying my readers. So, what better place to start than with my hatred of elections? I hate elections because not only do elections symbolize inevitable doom and judgment (because invariably, someone must win and someone must lose) but because I abhor politics and I detest activism. And elections are driven by politics and activism. So it's just a big giant yechh! It's creepy and disgusting to have a sense of obligation to write about such a disgusting thing. Writing about maggot-infested roadkill seems infinitely more charming. I'd like to skip the bullshit and just say that because I continue to support the war against terror, I plan to vote for as many of the Republican candidates as I can stomach voting for, and (as I explained before) if I have to wear a figurative or literal noseclip to the polls, I will. It was a bit daunting to read this essay by disgruntled Democrat Orson Scott Card, because I think he's so absolutely right in his analysis, and because I couldn't hope to match it in terms of breadth or scope. It's a long essay and a great one, but here's his conclusion: The Democratic Party is hopeless -- only clowns seem to be able to rise to prominence there these days, while they boot out the only Democrats serious about keeping America's future safe. But the Republicans are almost equally foolish, trying to find somebody who is farther right than Bush -- somebody who will follow the conservative line far better than the moderate Bush has ever attempted -- and somebody who will "kick butt" in foreign policy.Via Glenn Reynolds, who as usual says "Read the whole thing." You really do have to read the whole thing to understand why Card considers Bush's policy restrained and steadfast, but he's right. It is. People on both sides are threatening to undo it for very different reasons, but I think that regardless of what anyone thinks of Iraq, it may be our last best chance to avert something much more serious, and that is defeat. Politically and psychologically, I don't think this country can tolerate another defeat in a major war. We still bear the scars of defeat in Vietnam, and the argument still rages about the hows and whys of that defeat. Many Americans believe the United States deserved to be defeated, and many believe we were defeated by the Communist Vietnamese enemy. I don't think we were defeated by the Communists at all, but by Watergate. Watergate achieved more than the removal of Nixon; it guaranteed defeat in Vietnam. That's because Nixon had waged the war to a peaceful conclusion by forcing the enemy into a peace agreement which just might have been enforceable, but which, after the national post-Watergate malaise set in, became politically impossible. The country that had always won its wars had a very hard time grappling with having lost one for which 57,000 Americans had died. And the removal of a popular president who'd won by a landslide is about as close as this country can come to regicide, and the demoralizing effects were inevitable. I'm not saying this to defend Nixon or compare Bush to Nixon, or even Iraq to Vietnam. It's just that I think patterns can repeat themselves, and there's nothing that demoralizes a country like the loss of a war. Especially a war that should have been and could have been won. And which, depending on your definitions, actually had been won. The consequences of losing Iraq might be worse than losing Vietnam, not only because it would mean two losses (and the demoralization of being a two-time loser is worse than the demoralization of being a one-time loser), but because from a national security standpoint, a loss in Iraq would have worse consequences than the loss in Vietnam. Vietnam was a hot battle in the larger Cold War, but the real enemy consisted of actual, identifiable countries (primarily the Soviet Union) which were rational and which could be dealt with in other ways. Russia did not want World War III, as they still had fresh memories of World War II. While Communist ideologues saw Communism as inevitable, they just didn't have the same messianic view or willingness to die as martyrs, and they saw the United States as an enemy that could be dealt with at arm's length on a more or less rational basis. Not so with people who see us as the Great Satan, and who see Iraq as sacred soil and the proper seat of a Caliphate. If the U.S. loses the will to see the Iraq effort through to victory, the consequences will be very dire. Add the inevitable demoralization factor domestically, and I don't think this country can afford it. Why, I'd go so far as to say that it's more important that the debate over Foley. Or Haggard. Or even closets. I'll vote for the Republicans despite their alleged closets. I'll take their closets over the Democrats' closets. Closets are based on shame, and while I don't think homosexuality is worth being ashamed of, defeat in a war is very definitely worth being ashamed of. The closet with the most shame is the closet of Vietnam. Neither party wants that shame, and that's why they're still arguing about who is responsible, and who deserves blame for the shame. I'm tempted to say "no more Vietnams" but it would sound like an antiwar slogan, and I mean it as the opposite. In general, the people who say "no more war" really mean what they say, and they think that defeat is acceptable. I think it would be a disaster, and I think withdrawal before victory guarantees defeat. Not that the Republicans are great, but I think they're less likely to repeat the mistakes of Vietnam. And whether you like Nixon or not, his party did tend to believe in the virtue of victory. Say what you will about defeat, but I don't think too many people see virtue in it. So, despite my many disappointments with them, I hope the Republicans win on Tuesday. I hope that my pessimism about what the Democrats would do if they win is misguided, and I hope that if they defeat the Republicans that it won't lead to a defeat in Iraq. I don't think the national closet is large enough to hold such a defeat. MORE: Thank you, Glenn Reynolds, for linking this post! Welcome all, and whether you have to hold your nose or not (and whether you agree with me or not), be sure to vote. MORE: While my ignorance obviously shows, I'm happy to be educated by the commenters about Orson Scott Card. I don't read Science Fiction, and I wish I'd talked to Justin before I wrote this post, but what the heck. I thought it was a great essay knowing nothing about Card, and hearing more about him makes this process more interesting. (Whether I agree with him on other issues is irrelevant.) UPDATE (11/06/06): The DC Examiner opines that Americans know so little about the Democrats' plans that they are "Sleepwalking into the gathering storm": ....as America faces a mortal threat, too many Democrats who would lead us have not yet demonstrated that they recognize our peril. We know only that they have urged withdrawal from Iraq, but are always vague about what happens after that. And they have consistently opposed every means of intelligence-gathering that has clearly prevented new terrorist attacks and thus saved countless lives.(Via Glenn Reynolds.) What happens after withdrawal from Iraq? That depends on why they're withdrawn. If the withdrawal reflects the reality that the troops are no longer needed to assist a stabilized and democratic Iraqi state, that's one thing. If they're removed because the voters decided they were tired of them being there and their mission failed, that's quite another. I think the former would be a victory, but the latter would be a shameful defeat. MORE: According to two more reports linked by Glenn, both U.S. soldiers and the Iraqi government would seem to agree. UPDATE (11/07/06): LGF quotes Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on what he sees as "the lessons of Vietnam": I cannot forget the sight of the American forces leaving Vietnam in helicopters, which carried their officers and soldiers. Some Vietnamese, who had fought alongside the Americans, tried to climb into these helicopters, but the [Americans] threw them to the ground, abandoned them, and left. This is the sight I anticipate in our region, but I am not saying it will happen in months. It will take years. The Americans will gather their belongings and leave this region - the entire region. They have no future whatsoever in our region. They will leave the Middle East, and the Arab and Islamic worlds, like they left Vietnam. I advise all those who place their trust in the Americans to learn the lesson of Vietnam, and to learn the lesson of the South Lebanese Army with the Israelis, and to know that when the Americans lose this war - and lose it they will, Allah willing - they will abandon them to their fate, just like they did to all those who placed their trust in them throughout history.Something to keep in mind while voting. posted by Eric on 11.05.06 at 10:21 AM
Comments
Why do you care what celebrity activist Orson Scott Card thinks? What does he bring to politics that Barbra Streisand does not? Furthermore, why do you believe Card when he claims to be a Democrat? Just because he says so? I have never heard of him expressing support for the Democrats before. He has written that homosexuality should be illegal and that New York City's secular liberal intellectuals brought 9/11 upon themselves. Is Dinesh D'Souza a "Democrat" too? Card is playing the part of a College Republican concern troll: "Oh, I was a Democrat, until those people who believe [*list of things Democrats believe*] went too far--so vote Bush!" TTT · November 5, 2006 03:35 PM Whatever you think, the American people cannot stand fighting alone in a war that has no foreseeable conclusion or objective. As far as I can tell, you are right about the consequences of American surrender (surrender is what leaving before the job is finished is all about) in Iraq. Osama bin Laden predicted this after Reagan's retreat from Lebanon two decades ago. We have not got the stomach to fight this war and win it. Neither does anyone else in the world. Moreover, no one else in the world has the resources to do the job even if the will were there. Is this what things were like in 1938? Only Pearl Harbor changed America's mind back then. Many thought that 9/11 would be this decade's Pearl Harbor, but they were wrong. Ever since Bush invaded Iraq without a clear explanation I've been pessimistic. My only hope is that by cynically recruiting so many veterans to run for office the Democrats, my party, have sown the seeds for a return to the party of John F. "bear any burden pay any price" Kennedy and Scoop Jackson. jimbo · November 5, 2006 03:46 PM TTT, I agreed with Card's reasoning in that piece, and I liked the way he said it. (Sometimes I agree with things Clayton Cramer says, even though I disagree with his views on homosexuality.) Until now, I hadn't read Orson Scott Card's views on other subjects, but I wasn't commenting on them, was I? Wikipedia says he's also spoken against Intelligent Design; so what? As to whether he's a Democrat, that depends on his party registration. If you can show he's other than a registered Democrat, I'll note that, because I don't like dishonesty of that variety. Conservative Republicans might call me a RINO, but only I can change my registration. As to his celebrity status, you're right that it counts for no more than Barbra Streisand's, and I'd agree with him even if he was a mere blogger. (Which I actually thought he was. Silly me!) Eric Scheie · November 5, 2006 03:54 PM Card's celebrity status counts for more than Streisand's, because he earned it thru thoughtful creative writing rather than performing. triticale · November 5, 2006 04:02 PM "I'm tempted to say 'no more Vietnams' but it would sound like an antiwar slogan" Actually, that was exactly what Nixon said in his book of the same title. Although it may not be popular to quote him, Nixon has the folowing to say on this slogan: "No more Vietnams" could mean we will not try again. It should mean we will not fail again. "Ever since Bush invaded Iraq without a clear explanation" Jimbo, the explaination might be clearer if you had listened to what Bush said rather than what the Democrats and MSM said he said. For example, you might have noticed that, contrary to what others would tell you, liberating the Iraqi people and establishing a functioning democracy was not an afterthought but a paramount goal from the start. submandave · November 5, 2006 05:01 PM RE: Card vs. Streisand, Streisand has a high school education and nothing that particularly suggests she is informed or thoughtful about current events or geopolitical issues. Card has a master's degree and was part way through his doctorate when he left grad school to support his family. He is now in a long-term college faculty position, in addition to having written some topselling and thoughtful novels. He's earned a serious hearing. true · November 5, 2006 05:15 PM Yes, the Card piece was good, partly because he discussed something that gets too little attention: that it's hard for officials on our side to speak clearly about the war. This is not because they are inarticulate (though some may be), but because the political/strategic reality is so complex and delicate. Thus, as Card points out, we have the vague "War on Terror" appellation, avoiding the words "Islam" or "Muslim." They don't make a big deal about our soldiersbeing in Iraq so that we can fight terrorists away from our soil, because that would make Iraqis resentful and clue in the terrorists that we want them to go to Iraq and attack our troops, and not come to the U.S. and attack civilians. And clearly we are there partly to be near Syria and Iran, but we can't publicly say so. PapayaSF · November 5, 2006 06:44 PM Thanks, Eric, for another fine post. You might also find Dennis Prager's reasons for voting Repub. interesting. Snippet please remember that it was disaffected Republicans who voted for Ross Perot who helped elect Bill Clinton president, and it was disaffected Democrats who voted for Ralph Nader who helped elect George W. Bush president. Unless you run yourself, dear annoyed Republican, you will never find an ideal candidate. Compared to you and your conservative principles, real-life Republicans are indeed a failure. But compared to real-life Democrats, they are almost giants. Darleen · November 5, 2006 07:07 PM I can think of all sorts of people who have neither a master's degree nor a long-term college teaching position whose opinions are more interesting and better informed than those of many people I have met with doctorates and tenure. Surely, the man has earned a hearing on the basis of his argument and not on the basis of his credentials. If Orson Scott Card has argued "homosexuality" should be illegal I would argue for criminal charges to be laid on the grounds of stupidity. But neither would undermine his arguments for voting Republican in this election. All I can add is that this is not only one of the most important elections in your history but for those of us who, not being American citizens, will have no vote to cast. To paraphrase Tony Blair, it is not a burden you have asked to carry but it is your burden to carry nonetheless. Flea · November 5, 2006 07:28 PM Orson Scott Card wrote Ender's Game, which was a disturbingly creepy explanation of the creation of military genius, and a study of its nature. He also wrote several sequels, and the Alvin Maker series which was very original for genre fiction. His writing is a bit depressing, but its very thoughtful and creative. I'd rank him as one of the more serious SF/Fantasy thinkers (above L.E. Modestit and R. A. Heinlein and Ken McLeod for example) even though I don't enjoy his fiction writing that much since its so gloomy. As to not listening to him because he thinks homosexuality is bad, hmmmh...1)He's written at least one short story from the view of a young homosexual. 2) If your favorite color is not blue, then I'm not going to listen to you. See how that works? Sounds silly when I say it. Eric R. Ashley · November 5, 2006 10:02 PM TTT and his ilk love to say things such as "Orson Scott Card isn't a REAL Democrat. He believes things I don't believe. He supports George Bush. He is a spy and a plant." Read TTT further above. Examine the paranoia. Examine the hatred and spite. The true believers are trying to purge the Democrats of everyone who doesn't toe thier line. They may well succeed. After 9-11 I still voted for John Kerry, but I had gotten so disgusted with the Dems that it was close. Now I consider the Dems to be complete freaks. Orson Scott Card, too, has become disgusted. M. Devereaux · November 5, 2006 10:37 PM Good post, Eric. Slightly off the subject, I recommend Ender's Game to you - it's a quick read but it is full of thought-provoking discussions about leadership and morality. It's fiction, but in my mind it stands up there with Orwell and Huxley. Jeff · November 5, 2006 10:49 PM
Rob · November 5, 2006 11:18 PM I've long thought Card one of the more interesting SF writers, though unlike Mr. Ashley I'd rank him after Heinlein, if that meant anything. His writing may be creepy but it's also insightful, thought-provoking and persistently intelligent. It's one of his better essays and it makes a good, if link-light, case for letting Bush pursue the war his own way. Perhaps the best one can hope for in the election is a split Senate where Lieberman can insist on being heard. Not that my vote matters on that score; no Senators in Oregon running for reelection, and my Rep's a safe-seat Democrat. Shelby · November 6, 2006 01:21 AM It's interesting how superficial and wrong is Card's analysis. The only serious choice for those interested in winning the GWOT is Democratic. Bush crossed another rubicon. He actually agreed Darfur is genocide, but is sitting by and watching. Words, sure. But words can be important. And in this case are. On the issues of torture, and secret trials, and taking away the rights of Americans he accuses of terrorism, Bush Jr. has proved himself not just a war criminal, but fundamentally a traitor to our basic principles. He insults the basic relationship of our free people and the free individuals that make it up, to the state that derives any power from their consent. Andrew Sullivan is spot on. The highjacking of the conservative movement and of the GOP is breathtaking. I'll add that if you seek to trade freedom for safety, then please, please bow out of this whole war on terror. Find a nice ranch in a rural area and let the Democratic party and those who have not been unmanned by the prospect of terrorism finish this thing. Because you're dragging us down. Bill · November 6, 2006 01:21 AM Card is definitely a Democrat, and has been for years. I actually remember an old story about him getting in an argument with Heinlein (who had no such failing). Regardless, he still holds leftist/liberal views on the economy-mistrust of markets, a belief in the idea we are all getting poorer and must invest in healthcare, education, and research through the government like crazy to survive, and a support for population control that came from reading Paul Ehrlich. Jon Thompson · November 6, 2006 04:33 AM Does it matter if Card is a Democrat? If I had a Dem candidate saying "STAY THE COURSE IN IRAQ" and a Repub candidate saying "GET OUT NOW" then I would vote for Dem. It's not about party affiliation, it's about the ideas and motivations of the candidate. But as it is, the only people who want to stay the course in Iraq happen to be Republican. The Dems have made sure than anyone who doesn't toe their party line gets kicked out a la Joe Leiberman. Raging_Dave · November 6, 2006 10:31 AM How in the world is keeping republicans in power going result in a "win" in Iraq? They lack the capacity to win because they lack the capacity to reason. They have made every strategy decision based on its domestic political effect, rather than on the likelihood that it will increase our chance of success in Iraq. Just a few examples off the top of my head: staffing the CPA with neophytes based on their political juice; allowing the Shi'ites to keep their militias; allowing the country to "approve" a constitution that leaves unresolved basic questions of federalism; caving in to Malaki's demand that American troups abandon one of their own in Sadr city (to avoid any appearance of dischord a week before the election); announcing (days before the decision of the court explaining its reasoning will issue) that Saddam will hang, throwing gasoline on an already chaotic situation in order to command the front page of u.s. papers one day before the election. Why is Rove prosecuting the war? And why is it that there is no one in the republican party who will stand up to them? Do you honestly think the republicans have moved us closer to victory in Iraq? sophie brown · November 6, 2006 11:58 AM As to not listening to him because he thinks homosexuality is bad, hmmmh...1)He's written at least one short story from the view of a young homosexual. 2) If your favorite color is not blue, then I'm not going to listen to you. See how that works? Sounds silly when I say it. That's because it's silly. Card contributes nothing that others don't already supply without the added bigotry. When you can find the original nugget in his slavering you might have a point. Righteous Bubba · November 6, 2006 01:40 PM If you “hate elections” what would you prefer, a monarchy? dataguy · November 6, 2006 02:30 PM I have no reason to doubt that Card, a mid-list sci-fi reader, but one I've never read, is a Democrat, if he says so, but I think he misapprehends the party he claims to have been a part of for decades. I don't disagree that the Democrats today are a pathetic bunch, craven and hypocritical, but their fault is hardly that they are too extreme, too desirous of America's "defeat," too "left." Their fault is entirely the opposite: they are cowards who have colluded and laid down for the execrable law-breaking administration of Li'l Butch and Big DICK as it has engaged in its 6-year rampage of war-crimes and torture, mendacity and hubris. We have violated the Geneva Conventions and thus committed a war-crime in our invasion of Iraq, and we have continued to commit war crimes in the pursuance of the original crime. One can hardly be said to be "wishing for America's defeat" when the task we are engaged in is a crime of historic proportion; one might be said to wish that America would stop compounding its crimes sooner, rather than later, and depart Iraq post-haste, and prosecute Li'l Butch, Big DICK, et al for their part in the torture, imprisonment, and murder of thousands of innocent human beings. Oh, and Card's intellectual dishonesty is revealed quite clearly when he whines over the "Democratic Party leaving Joe Lieberman," when all that has happened is democracy in action: his constituents in his state have decided they do not agree with his position on at least some issues of grave national import, so they chose to cast their vote for someone who purports to hold views more in line with their own. To characterize such a decision of choice by a majority of Lieberman's own party's voters as being somehow a shameful abandonment--as if once in office, Lieberman's constitutents are OBLIGED to continue to vote for him, out of fealty to the person, as opposed to their making a choice based on how his positions have evolved either along with or contrary to theirs--is to reveal a contempt for democracy. Whay to go, Card! Robert1014 · November 6, 2006 02:42 PM Bill, Bill, Bill. 1) Secret trials. Name one person suspected of being a terrorist who has been sentenced through a secret trial. (Oh, wait- you can't, because they're SECRET! PARANOIA, meet Bill). 2) Secret evidence. Used to secretly convict people in secret trials secretly, but by golly, if they had to share it, thoughtful people like Bill would see that the evidence is secretly not real. 3) Renditions. How DARE the CIA apprehend suspicious terroristic-type people from foreign countries? Why, those cooperating foreign governents should be subjected to secret trials for helping America stay safe! 4) Torture. Some call it "The Red Hot Chili Peppers," other call it degrading acts of humiliation. Oooh, and water boarding- don't forget that. Mustn't force those terrorists to give up juicy details that are cross-correlated into actionable intelligence that prevents attacks, while simultaneously becoming "secret evidence." Bill, you obviously long for the good old days of the USSR facing down evil American capitalism, why are you griping about Bush restoring the reich? And help me out with your little case of cognitive dissonance here- are you proposing that Bush should kill the arab (muslim) militia in Darfur, to stop the genocide there? Because the rest of your post seems to be an argument for getting on our collective knees in the face of islam. So it's kinda funny that you want Bush to kill muslims. Not coherent, or thoughtful, mind you- just funny. Bill, my freedoms are impacted every time I go to an airport, and have to waste my time in security screening. I don't blame Bush for that- I blame islam. The democrats are fundamentally unserious on national security. But you just keep talking, okay? You're doing an excellent job of proving that point. Mitchell · November 6, 2006 02:48 PM Mitchell, No one has been sentenced through a secret trial because the administration has only just rammed its "secret trial" bill through congress. Instead, you have people languishing in american prisons, sectet or otherwise, without trial for five years. With regard to secret evidence, every trial involving terrorism to date has involved attempts by the government to present the defendant from seeing its evidence in the name of national security. Doesn't that count? Did you miss that? Secret renditions. You're right. How dare they? Does the government have a right to spirit "suspicious terroristic-type people" away just so people like you can feel manly and in charge? My answer is no. Torture is relative? And here I thought liberals were the relativists! I am going to go out on a limb and say waterboarding is torture. And, though I love the Red Hot Chili Peppers, I believe that blaring the music at people in confinement is inhumane to the nth degree and diminishes the stature or the blarer all over the world. By the way, I think I missed all the terrorist attacts we have thwarted using the information we obtained using torture. I know the bush boys say they can't release the information because of nattional security, but they never let national security stop them when something might make them look good. So I call bullshit on that one. I just don't believe it without real proof. sophie brown · November 6, 2006 05:42 PM This "The Democrat Party kicked Joe Lieberman out!" meme reveals truly disturbing things about the right-wingers who believe it. If you have a problem with representative democracy you're definitely living in the wrong country. He worked in the Senate, not the House of Lords. The right-wing Club For Growth worked their butts off to oust the very liberal RINO Lincoln Chafee, yet the media ignores that and nobody huffs and puffs about how it represents some Internet-driven apocalypse. Maybe I just don't understand. Anyway. Moving right along, I re-read Card's analysis and most of it seems like what he cobbled together after watching cable news for 8 hours straight. Though there are some novel ideas that few of you have commented on, particularly Card's assertion that "the West is nearly as wicked as Islamists claim" (feeding back into his Falwellian quasi-support for 9/11 I referred to earlier) and "the Iraq War is the best-run war in history with the fewest mistakes and is not going badly at all." Would you be comfortable saying that in public, any of you? Would you say it to the parents who have lost children to it? Do you REALLY find that agreeable? Don't mince words. If you think things in Iraq are awesome, be proud and say so. In addition to cheerleading for how well things are going over there, Card's other real point is that the stakes in Iraq are so high that if we elect the wrong (=Democrat) candidates, we will lose and be permanently weakened or threatened as a result. Let me ask my conservative friends something: how can anyone claim to be CERTAIN that our very doom rests upon the outcome of the Iraq War? How can you be sure bad things would happen if we withdrew or even, assuming it could really be judged, "lost"? Whose advice would you trust, and based on what record of accuracy and expertise? Every single person who ever advocated and supported this war has always been wrong about everything. From the presence of Al Qaeda and WMDs, to the amount of troops, money, and time required, to the local reaction, to the strength of the insurgency, to the significance of catching Saddam / killing his sons / holding sundry elections / killing Zarqawi (remember him?).... everything the pro-war position has ever said has been demonstrably and documentarily wrong. That's part of why the majority of this country has rejected that position. But I'm not here to ask a majority question, because that's more a rhetorical point than a logical one. I want to understand the decision-making here. Why do any of you listen to, let alone respect, the doomsaying of Dick Cheney and Bill Kristol? Where does their credibility come from? TTT · November 6, 2006 05:50 PM I'm glad we are having another argument about whether to go to war with Iraq. Because, that? That, right there? That is relevant today. Jon Thompson · November 6, 2006 07:44 PM > If I had a Dem candidate saying "STAY THE COURSE IN IRAQ" and a Well, in fact, let's take a look at 2008's most likely Presidential candidates, Clinton and Obama. Both are decidedly, and clearly prowar. Clinton clearly has no regret for her Iraq vote. If you look at actual votes taken, you'll see that Ds in power actually do support the WoT pretty broadly. Plenty think that the course of the war needs adjusting, but that's very different from wanting out of Iraq now or thinking the War On Terror is a mistake. In fact, in 2001, we still had the Senate. Did that hinder passage of the Patriot Act or the Iraq War authorization? jon · November 6, 2006 08:24 PM Jon, Are you familiar with the concept of relevance? It means having a tendency to make a fact of significance more or less likely. Here the question is: "will the republicans lead us to victory in Iraq?" I think it's fairly obvious that, if the republicans led us into a war we should never have started, then the chances are greater that they will not lead us to victory in that war. Why? Because the flawed decision making that led us in is still operating in the bush white house. And here's another reason: what made the war wrong was, among other things, the substantial likelihood of a very bad outcome. This is so very obvious to me that I really have to question to intellectual integrity of those who change the subject. sophie brown · November 6, 2006 08:28 PM geez, the tediousness of bill and sophie. Sophie, have you ever even read the Geneva Conventions? Then you know it covers uniformed soldiers and civilians. Neither of which do unlawful combatants qualify as. Military tribunals have a long history in the US to try those who do not belong in civilian courts (ex parte Quirin for one). The Bush Administration did nothing illegal, indeed, when the Hamdan decision came down, SCOTUS stated that, yes indeed, tribunals could be used, but not as then constituted. So, in complying with SCOTUS, they went to Congress and got the appropriate legislation. And unlawful combatants will be evaluated, and if necessary, tried under its provisions. You don't treat terrorists as civilians nor as POW's.... that guts the purpose of the Geneva conventions. Darleen · November 6, 2006 08:34 PM Sophie Dems have offered NOTHING to demonstrate they are committed to success in Iraq. What, I'm supposed to consider Dems, who supported the war at the beginning, now wringing their hands, gnashing their teeth and engaging in juvenile antics of "We shouldn't have gone!" street theater? Sweetcheeks, life is not a dress rehearsal. It's a nice academic exercise to look over all the historical data that led UP to our toppling Saddam, but that has not a THING to do with what we do NOW and in the future. Leaving Iraq now, as Pelosi and Murtha are foresquare behind, would be a disaster. It hands a victory to the Islamists, it betrays the Iraqi people who depend on us, it will embolden Islamists across ME and Europe and it will weaken the US military. (and it will speed up the full Islamization of Europe by at least a couple of generations) If you don't understand this, then you are still living, like Groundhog Day, at 9/10/01. Darleen · November 6, 2006 08:48 PM Darleen, I am not familiar enough with the provisions of the geneva convention to argue its terms with you, but I suspect that there is not any provision that excludes enemy combatants from its protections. In fact, I would bet that "civilians" and "pows" were intended to define the universe of people encountered on the battlefield. When Murtha and others are in power (in January, god willing), they will look at the situation to determine how troops can be drawn down in ways that leave the situation in Iraq as stable as possible. If you believe that Murtha or Pelosi or even Feinstein intend to do something precipitous that could jeopardize remaining troops or Iraqi civilians you are suffering from republican delusions (and probably think Hilary had Vince Foster killed). Statements made by Murtha (I don't even recall Pelosi's statement) in response to Bush's stay the course lunacy do not indicate the manner in which drawing down troops would be achieved. My main point, Darleen, is that staying will not lead to victory. I think that is fair statement and one with a lot of empirical support. How do you think "staying the course" will lead to victory? Can you describe what victory even means? sophie brown · November 6, 2006 09:10 PM am not familiar enough with the provisions of the geneva convention to argue its terms Then quit attempting to tell everyone what YOU want them to say. you believe that Murtha or Pelosi or even Feinstein intend to do something precipitous I'm listening to what Pelosi and Murtha have actually said, not what you want to tell me you think they are saying. Is there something wrong with taking people at their word? Like the Islamists that are already telling their followers that a Dem victory is what they want because of the take of immediate withdrawal means the Great Satan has been defeated. staying will not lead to victory See, you already contradict everything you stated. The opposite of staying is LEAVING, and leaving will definitely mean defeat for American troops and will put us all in the cross hairs of jihadists. GROW UP, sophie. For godsake, grow up. Darleen · November 7, 2006 12:00 AM Your blog sucks, Darleen, and your comment is stupid. Roger Taylor · November 7, 2006 12:13 AM Thank you, Roger, for such a mature rebuttal. Darleen · November 7, 2006 12:47 AM TTT, In answer to your question ("...Would you be comfortable saying that in public, any of you? Would you say it to the parents who have lost children to it? Do you REALLY find that agreeable? Don't mince words. If you think things in Iraq are awesome, be proud and say so."), while I know it wasn't directed at me specifically, I'd have to answer, "yes." I've just come back from my third trip to Iraq (at government expense... Thanks, taxpayers!). Yes, it's a well-run war. It's a war, though, people, so it involves chaos. Chaos, when mixed with IEDs and an inimical foe will result in casualties, both friendly and neutral. It's a war, a war that is run as well as it can be and better than you believe. Before you discount what I say, bear in mind that I've spent roughly seven times as long in combat as Kerry has (yes, I know he's not running... I provide that only for perspective, NOT to imply that having been to combat for more or less time makes ones positions more or less supportable, mind you). If there was one thing in the Card essay worth carrying away, it's that the petty pissing and moaning and non-rational (dare I say irrational) anti-Bush sentiments have no place in deciding how we spend the next decade or two. You ask, TTT, whose advice we should trust, and based on what track record. That's a darn good question, but I'd suggest that your following paragraph to explain the rhetorical nature of your question lacks in... accuracy. Let's turn around some of your questions: what compells you to think the democrats have the solution? What track record of laser-like accuracy have they established? What wars have they won (Kosovo, you might say... Hmmm... think harder)? Is it all Nancy Pelosi's war experience? Is it Dean's storied generalship in far-off lands? Is it Murtha's war record (oddly, I've never heard anybody tout anything of his military career other than that he had one). If Card is so wrong and so shallow, please, TTT, weave a stronger tale than he did to explain the better course. It might be more productive than repeating the jabs, unfounded though they be (and tiresome, too). As somebody above said: this isn't the practice field... it's game day and the time for wishful thinking and hope is long passed. Matt · November 7, 2006 05:18 AM Yes, it's a well-run war. If Card is so wrong and so shallow, please, TTT, weave a stronger tale than he did to explain the better course. Card's out of his mind. No reason for anyone to try to better him. Look: You hear about the power outages in Iraq and it's always somehow Bush's fault. What nobody points out is that these outages come in places where Saddam barely offered electricity at all. The reason the new power systems can't cope is because the newly prosperous Iraqi people are buying -- and plugging in -- vast quantities of electrical appliances they could never afford to buy before! When a town that used to have two dozen refrigerators and washing machines now has two thousand of each, the old power supply is never going to do the job. Yeah, all that prosperity! It's refrigeratopia there! Righteous Bubba · November 7, 2006 01:07 PM Bubba: Sorry to burst your bubble, but, simply mocking his explanation for power outages doesn't really answer Card adequately. In fact, if accurate, his explanation is reasonable. Unless you know he is wrong or doesn't have the data to back up his statement, you aren't doing a good job of making your point. Jon Thompson · November 7, 2006 08:09 PM Bubba: Sorry to burst your bubble, but, simply mocking his explanation for power outages doesn't really answer Card adequately. In fact, if accurate, his explanation is reasonable. Unless you know he is wrong or doesn't have the data to back up his statement, you aren't doing a good job of making your point. The point isn't about power outages, nitwit, it's about the state of Iraq, which most reasonable people, including the architects of it agree is a massive fuck-up. The point of the choice of the paragraph is that Card, like you, will cherry pick some small detail which may or may not be true (don't know, don't care in this case) to try to make the case for an outrageously lame-brained policy. You can't burst my bubble if you can't see it for the blinders. Righteous Bubba · November 8, 2006 12:46 PM Darleen is correct on the provisions of the Geneva Conventions, and Sophie Brown is missing the third category of people encountered on the battlefield: spies and sabateurs, which are subject to summary execution. Non-uniformed enemy combatants fall into this category, and they have received far better treatment in this war than any previous conflict. And remember, the US Constitution does not apply to non-citizens captured in a time of war. shoulung · November 17, 2006 06:24 AM |
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Despite your misgivings, you did the right thing in posting about the Orson Scott Card essay.
One every year or two, I read an essay or editorial that fundamentally changes my thinking on an issue. The Card essay did that. I already early-voted -- R for Senate (safe R seat) and R for the House (for a seat that is somewhere between 30 and 50 on the watch list of seats that will Congress. So it wouldn't have changed the way I voted.
But I've been doubting that Bush Administration war strategy in Iraq. I've started to fear that it is another Viet Nam. Not for the reasons that the Left claims. But I was fearing that we were asking our troops to fight this war with both hands tied behind their backs -- like we did in Viet Nam -- and that the demonization of our troops was progressing -- just like in Viet Nam. Via the Card essay, I now understand that the Bush middleground strategy isn't repeating Viet Nam's lesson in American self-over-restraint, but is the only plausible strategy in steering the ship of Western Civilization between Scylla and Charydbis, to repeat Card's analogy.
And the future of Western Civilization, Mr. Classical Values, is what is at stake here in the War and, sadly, this election. One party is so hopped up on Bush hatred (and, really, is controlled by a radical clique of America haters, even though that view does not reflect the vast majority of Dem party members) that they are willing to surrender in a war of survival.
OK, so Republicans might stop being such wild spenders if we have Speaker Pelosi. Ho. Hum. That's not what is at stake. A Democrat-controlled House will cut off funding for the war effort and we will go down to defeat. You can defeat "redeployment" from now until the camels come home, but it will perceived across the globe as the defeat of Fortress America. We lose in Iraq and the forces hell-bent (prior word chosen carefully) on returning to the Dark Ages will be ascendant and, possibly, triumphant.
And I don't think that will be bring us any closer to Andrew Sullivan's dream world of universal same-sex marriage.
So, thank you for proselytizing the Card essay. Everyone on the fence should read it before he or she votes.