Cyclical Triangulation

Captain Ed has a good post on the subject of President Bush's triangulation (if that's the right word) of Arnold Schwarzenegger's triangulation strategy:

In that context, the Arnoldization that Bush appears to have begun makes some sense. He doesn't have a dog in the party fight that will arise over the next few weeks; in two years, he's retiring no matter what. People forget that Bush never has been a doctrinaire conservative, and that he chose Dick Cheney as his running mate to build confidence among conservatives in his leadership. He cut taxes like a conservative, but his social policies outside of abortion and embryonic stem cell research have been centrist, and his foreign policy Wilsonian. The removal of Rumsfeld and the selection of Bob Gates as his replacement, along with Condoleezza Rice at State, moves that foreign policy significantly back towards the foreign policy of his father and further away from Cheney and the "neocons".

Bush wants to still be able to get work done in the final two years, and he understands that he will have to compromise on a broad front with Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi to do so. He isn't Ronald Reagan in that sense, but that's because he doesn't have Reagan's approval ratings, either. He's a minority president beset by a wave of disapproval, and he has few options outside of outright political warfare -- and in this case, the Democrats have all the big guns now. It's realpolitik in a different arena; Schwarzenegger showed how to survive and even thrive in that environment, and Bush appears ready to use his playbook.

Bush really has nothing to lose at this point. The more the Democrats cooperate with him, the more successful the final days of his presidency will be. But if they refuse to cooperate after he has clearly met them half way, simply to make Bush look bad, they'll appear petty, vindictive, and unworthy of winning in 2008.

I don't see much of a downside in this for Bush; only for the Democrats.

posted by Eric on 11.09.06 at 01:31 PM





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But if they refuse to cooperate after he has clearly met them half way, simply to make Bush look bad, they'll appear petty, vindictive, and unworthy of winning in 2008.

That really depends on which specific issues the Democrats refuse to cooperate on. If we cause another gov't shutdown by not passing a budget, then yes, someone will appear "petty, vindictive, and unworthy of winning in 2008" -- but even so, that someone may be the Democrats or Bush, depending on circumstances.

On the other hand, if the Democrats pass a realistic budget, with tax increases to reduce the deficit; or repeals of Bush's more ridiculous laws; and Bush vetoes them, then the Democrats could win big by showing how ridiculous and/or irresponsible the Republicans are.

Raging Bee   ·  November 9, 2006 01:55 PM

I think that to the extent that the laws Bush signed had bipartisan support they are quite unlikely to be undone. I'd love to see McCain-Feingold repealed, and some of the draconian DMCA provisions undone, but I'm not holding my breath.

34 Democrats voted for the Military Appropriations Bill which a lot of people are complained about, and I doubt that will be repealed.

Eric Scheie   ·  November 9, 2006 02:37 PM

"But if they refuse to cooperate after he has clearly met them half way, simply to make Bush look bad, they'll appear petty, vindictive, and unworthy of winning in 2008."

But this assumes the press would portray dems as not meeting Bush halfway, which the MSM will never do. It also assumes the average dem, like Raging Bee, is capable of rational thought. But the fact that Bee honestly believes raising taxes will reduce the deficit pretty much proves that's wrong.

Compromising with dems won't do anything for republicans. All out political warfare is preferable. That is what leads to heavy debate, that is what gets ideas exposed, that's what gets the spotlight thrown on the differing philosophies. Compromising with dems destroyed Bush 1 and led to dems getting congress back this time.

In the end having a bunch of dinos and rinos run the country is the same as having a single party government. I'd rather have the parties at each other's throats. That creates a crucible from which something better can be created.

Hehehe. I might be a little irrational here...

Harkonnendog   ·  November 9, 2006 03:13 PM

I can only hope partisan politics rears its ugly head. Otherwise, we'll have logrolling instead of gridlock.

Jon Thompson   ·  November 9, 2006 04:31 PM

I'm not saying this is the right strategy, and I don't know how far it will go.

Time will tell.

(Republicans also have a lot of experience at playing the underdog game.)

Eric Scheie   ·  November 9, 2006 05:09 PM

That's a good point, Eric.

Harkonnendog   ·  November 9, 2006 05:16 PM

You've done nothing to alleviate my post-election depression.

With the firing of Donald Rumsfeld, the decision, apparently, to leave John Bolton sowly twisting in the wind, and the strong signals that Bush hopes to sign an immigation amenesty bill, it looks like the Dick Cheney presidency has come to a conclusion. For the last two years of his term, we're going to stuck with George W. Bush in the Oval Office. Read my lips, everything the Republicans stand for will now be on the table. (Allusion intended)

Rhodium Heart   ·  November 9, 2006 09:00 PM

"everything the Republicans stand for will now be on the table."
Yes. Bush shows himself to be an empty shirt. If it wasn't already, the war in Iraq is now lost. At this point, my hope is that we are able to get the troops home safely. Memories of helicopters lifting off roof tops in Saigon seem to come back.

Frank   ·  November 10, 2006 12:42 AM

"But this assumes the press would portray dems as not meeting Bush halfway, which the MSM will never do."

Excellent point HD...although I have ceased to call them "mainstream" media because I no longer wish to contribute to their framing of the issues or any tacit acceptance of them as "mainstream". The Ministry of Media or MOM of the nanny state will indeed continue to operate as the frontline propaganda machine for subversives. (I refuse to call them liberals it's too ambiguous and certainly refuse to call them "progressives"...since outing gays and attacking Joe Lieberman for being Jewish is now a main entree' on their vast menu of hypocrisy)

The MOM of the nanny state will never, ever...under any circumstances...turn on its own...as long as the babies remain stepford children that is.

"It also assumes the average dem, like Raging Bee, is capable of rational thought. But the fact that Bee honestly believes raising taxes will reduce the deficit pretty much proves that's wrong."


Ah, HD...you "pro-business types" seem to think that a free market meritocracy is a good thing. Of course, you have not been indoctrinated into the lockstep lemming school of thought...that business is...by definition...bad, evil, greedy, corrupt...and only a socialist nanny state can control that greed and corruption. You need to give up half your income to "provide for"..."the oppressed, repressed, underclass, underprivileged, underbelly of the nanny state". Of course...90% of that money goes to the nanny state bloated bureaucrats...but that's the price we pay for inferiority breathlessly seeking the lofty and hallowed ground of medicority. And we have a celebrity spokesperson who will be making fun of your position...as soon as they get out of rehab...which we're sure will "take" this time around.

I see a "re-education camp" in your future until then, it will help you see the light.

cfbleachers   ·  November 10, 2006 06:07 AM

I'm beginning to believe that I prefer government to be stuck in gridlock. That is, unless, the party in charge has shown that it is actually for repealing the big government we have left ourselves with here.

CTDeLude   ·  November 10, 2006 12:47 PM


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