John Kerry loves boat analogies. Class war. And other swift thinking.....

First, there was his memorable acceptance speech at the DNC, in which he said that "we are all in the same boat."

And just yesterday, at Philadelphia's Franklin Institute, he gave the boat a name: The Titanic!

YOU WOULD think by now that John Kerry would be sick of talking about boats.

But when the Democratic presidential candidate came to Philadelphia's Franklin Institute for a fund-raiser last night, he tried to drown out the uproar over his swift boat service in Vietnam by riffing on the giant replica of the Titanic on exhibit there.

Kerry told about 300 supporters at a cocktail party that the Titanic reminded him of the Bush administration - "with a whole bunch of wealthy folks squeezing the middle class out of the boat, while the captain is unable to turn the ship away from disaster."

But both the Massachusetts senator and his entourage - including wife Teresa Heinz Kerry in her ketchup-red suit and Gov. Rendell - lashed out in apparent frustration over the wave of pro-Bush, Vietnam-vet attack ads that have overshadowed the campaign for the last week.

Out of what boat? The Titanic? Whether the statistics bear out his statement depends on the definition of middle class and wealthy. There were three classes: First Class, Second Class and Steerage (Third Class). Here are the total numbers:

First Class: 735

Second Class: 674

Third Class: 1026

I thought a look at the Titanic's actual ticket prices might be helpful:

Cost of a ticket (one way)

First Class (parlor suite) £870/$4,350 ($50,000 today)
First Class (berth) £30/$150 ($1724 today)
Second Class £12/$60 ($690 today)
Third Class £3 to £8/$40 ($172 to $460 today)

According to the White Star booklet on First Class Passage Rates, at that time of the year, a first class ticket cost from $135 to $3300, depending on your accommodations and whether you were sharing a cabin.

Cabins for a single person travelling alone on E Deck went from $150 to $260, on D Deck between $165 and $325, on C from $195 to $725, on B from $175 to $1520 (the parlour suites with private promenade were $3300), on A Deck $210 to $485, and on the Boat Deck from $260 to $425.

Sharing a cabin could cut the price by 40% or more.

The average steerage passenger paid from 4 to 7 pounds Sterling.
The typical (individual) First Class passages cost from 26 - 50 pounds Sterling. Mr. Astor paid about 221 pounds Sterling for the rooms for himself, his wife and the servants.

Factor that into the passenger numbers of 735 and 674 respectively, and the the claim that the wealthy were crowding out the middle class just doesn't hold water. (Forgive the expression!)

So I'm puzzled again.

Perhaps Senator Kerry was talking about the wealthy crowding the middle class out of the Titanic's lifeboats. The problem is, there's not much evidence to support that thesis either. There is, however, ample evidence that women crowded out the men:

First of all, if you were a man, you were outta luck. The overall survival rate for men was 20%. For women, it was 74%, and for children, 52%. Yes, it was indeed "women and children first."

But what about class? Well, third class women were 41% more likely to survive than first class men. And third class men were twice as likely to survive as second class men.

Yes, class is a far weaker variable in determining survival rate than sex or age. Indeed, most of the variance in first class vs. third class survival rates can be attributed to sex alone. The reason for this is simple: 44% of the first class passengers were women, while only 23% of the third class passengers were women. Because the survival rate for women was far greater than the survival rate for men, we would thus expect a much higher survival rate for first class passengers as a whole than for third class passengers as a whole.

And why would third class men be more likely to survive than second class men, anyway?

If there was a class war on the Titanic, it's obvious who won it. Wealth took a back seat to other considerations.

Sorry, but I'm left with a sinking feeling that maybe the Titanic is Kerry's boat after all....

UPDATE (08-26-04): I often feel like taking a break from all this, and now, via InstaPundit, I found a hell of a good post by Varifrank -- who has an even better idea: just stop blogging about Kerry!

I didn't start the blog so I could dig up the obvious on John Kerry. Frankly, its just too easy.

Let's take a look at the score so far. Kerry , who decided for some reason beyond the comprehension of a simpleton like me, has decided that the most important thing to run his campaign on is 4 months of service in Vietnam 35 years ago.

35 years ago! For gods sake man! Did it occur to you that 35 years was a hell of a long time ago? Do you remember anyone in 1960 running on his war record against the Kaiser in WWI? Did you really think that no one would look into your record? Did you not think or did anyone that works for you not think that you, like almost everyone else in the world, did in fact embellish your resume and tell tales that weren't based on fact, but on the emotions of the time?

Didn't it occur to you even a little bit, that standing up and saluting like a total fob and saying " Reporting for duty" after you sat in front of the Senate in 1971 with a fatigue shirt and long hair and told tales of "Americas war criminals" that somehow the "Band of Brothers" made for TV presentation schtick, might ring a bit hollow?

Here you are, with a 15% polling tailwind from the press reduced to Michael Moore street theatre with Max Cleland doing your dirty work in front of the cameras.