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June 07, 2007
Climate: The Astrology Model
I was doing some browsing around at Climate Audit, Steve McIntyre's blog and came across a comment from Steve saying the discussion of astrology in relation to climate science was banned. Well you know me. I can't resist a challenge. OK. I'm going to bite the astrology thing and risk banning.I found an article on Nelson's work published in the late 40s or early 50s. The accuracy given is around 80% not the 85% the commenter mentioned. Here is an article about a guy who predicts stock market peaks and troughs by a similar method. According to reports I have read he seems to get good results. Another article about a scientist, Dr. Landscheidt, who makes climate predictions based on planetary positions. Unlike the above guys who are empirical, he bases his theory on a model of the sun which seems to have some validity. Here is a more technical explanation of Dr. Landscheidt's theories. Let me just quote from the grabber at the top of the article: Abstract: Analysis of the sun's varying activity in the last two millennia indicates that contrary to the IPCC's speculation about man-made global warming as high as 5.8° C within the next hundred years, a long period of cool climate with its coldest phase around 2030 is to be expected. It is shown that minima in the 80 to 90-year Gleissberg cycle of solar activity, coinciding with periods of cool climate on Earth, are consistently linked to an 83-year cycle in the change of the rotary force driving the sun's oscillatory motion about the centre of mass of the solar system. As the future course of this cycle and its amplitudes can be computed, it can be seen that the Gleissberg minimum around 2030 and another one around 2200 will be of the Maunder minimum type accompanied by severe cooling on Earth. This forecast should prove skillful as other long-range forecasts of climate phenomena, based on cycles in the sun's orbital motion, have turned out correct as for instance the prediction of the last three El Niños years before the respective event.I still wonder if the climate change guys are using a valid model to predict the effects of solar output on the earth. Not just raw power output, but geomagnetism, and currents in space. One interesting thing I learned through all this is that the orbital period of Jupiter, 11.9 years, is not too far off from the average sunspot cycle which is 11 years. It may just be a coincidence. Or it may be significant. The thing is the IPCC doesn't even address such questions. I mean really. If climate change is strictly solar driven what will the Climate Changers do? Tax the sun? Cross Posted at Power and Control posted by Simon on 06.07.07 at 08:57 AM
Comments
Simon, The climate change people will take into account new scenarios for how the Sun behaves when the experts on the Sun agree that they make sense. Not before. A relevant example from the history of science: One of the great physicists of the day, Lord Kelvin, estimated the age of the Earth to be about 24 Million years, based on his model of how it would have cooled off after formation. This created a problem for geologists generally, and for Darwin's theory specifically. This couldn't be resolved by any discussion among geologists and biologists: The resolution came with the discovery of radioactivity, which invalidated Kelvin's calculation. wrt taxing the Sun: Again, let's stick to the issue. If we're talking about causes and results, we're talking about science. If we're talking about cures, we're talking policies. Let's not confuse them. They are more different than volts and amperes. Neal J. King · June 7, 2007 01:54 PM So when Mercury is retrograde the temperature goes down? triticale · June 7, 2007 07:38 PM Lord Kelvin worked with the tools available to him. When he calculated the age of the Earth, nuclear forces were yet to be discovered. Papertiger · June 9, 2007 08:15 AM Papertiger: - I'm not knocking Lord Kelvin: he was a great physicist. My point was that it didn't make much sense for biologists and geologists to try to incorporate complex models of the Earth (as Simon is suggesting the climate models incorporate complex models of the Sun) when Kelvin was discussing this issue: That problem had to be resolved at the level of the physics that gave rise to the problem. - Gravitons are a concept that fits into the framework of quantum field theory and attempts to extend QFT into the domain of gravity. The amount of gravitational wave energy that could be barely detectable is way beyond what you can get with Jupiter and the Sun. From the reading I have done on strings, I would bet large sums of money against any meaningful or significant connection between gravitons and sunspot cycles, or between the model of a graviton in string theory and sunspot cycles. Neal J. King · June 9, 2007 11:45 AM Neal SO you would be willing to bet that sunspot cycles aren't an example of gravity waves? It sounds like you harbor an alternative explanation of sunspots. What causes the sunspot cycle in your view? Papertiger · June 9, 2007 05:28 PM Papertiger, No, I have no positive belief in any specific explanation of sunspots. But, I do have a negative belief, that any reasonable causal explanation of them will have nothing to do with string-theory models of the graviton. Likewise, I have a strong negative belief, that any reasonable causal explanation of them will have nothing to do with astrology; or with gambling casino preferences; or with hog futures, interest rates, etc. I haven't studied solar dynamics specifically, but I did take a graduate-level course on stellar structure some years ago, so I have some exposure to the sorts of physical phenomena people think are important in stars. Solar dynamics depend on a lot of plasma theory, hydrodynamics, nuclear-fusion energetics, and very complex interactions on phenomena at that level. String-theory is too many levels down for its intricate details to show up at that level. Neal J. King · June 10, 2007 08:02 AM Post a comment
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