I'm not disagreeing with the fact that America's winning the culture war. In fact, I admit that I cannot contest a single detail listed above, but I'm not so sanguine about the future.

The entire Middle East (Nigeria, Venezuela, etc. too) has an economy built on crude oil. Unfortunately, OPEC nations were allowed to make "fantasy estimates" with the OPEC export rules of the 1980s that restricted exports based on total reserves. Naturally, everyone's estimates shot up dramatically within 2-3 years (all without any geological surveys, test drilling, or any other bothersome little details).

Peak oil has come and gone. World production is declining slowly (Iraq's dissolution is speeding things up, however). The 2 largest oil fields in the world (Ghawar in Saudi Arabia, Burgan in Kuwait) have already maxed out their capacities and begun to decline in production. Of course, a basic lack of liquid pressure will prevent economically viable oil recovery in many of our current oil fields long before the reserves are physically depleted.

What's the catch? That population explosion you were just talking about. Take Saudi Arabia as an example: 38% of the population is under 15, and 97.6% under the age of 65. Resources like water are beings stretched to the limit and the problem may continue to escalate in the years ahead. CIA Factbook records an official Saudi male unemployment rate of 13%, but notes that other, informal figures reach as high as 25% of the total population. It's no coincidence that 10 of the 11 September 11th hijackers were recruited from Saudi Arabia.

The problem with the theory of culture victorious is that it can't work without money. Sure, anyone with a little time and effort can beg, borrow, or steal any media any time, but how are you supposed to do that without the Internet? Or a computer? Or a HOUSE? You need technology to achieve the revolution you described and for many people in the Arab world the cost to achieve a globalization awareness is simply beyond their reach, however much they might want it.

Muslim fundamentalists are able to take advantage of this poverty and shame by arguing that those items are undesirable anyway and sinful besides, allowing people to take pride in their religious/cultural heritage and tradition. The sheiks will continue to encourage this because it deflects blame away from the oil-based economy and the blatant exploitation of the working class in those countries by their own governments.

What's going to happen when those countries have no oil to export? Sand comes in at a poor second in the global economy. It's a race between them running out of oil (much sooner than the US is willing to admit, since we trust their reserve estimates) or the Western world finding alternative energy sources. Either way will result in massive unemployment and fury across all oil-based economies as joblessness triggers a devastating recession. Lack of economic diversification will thus trigger a wave of fundamentalism far stronger than the stalemate we've achieved at the present.

Unless the US throws its weight behind comprehensive social, political, and economic reform in the Middle East (and abandons pro-Western dictators like Musharraf and Mubarak), 9-11 will be just a minor tidbit of a bloody 21st century. Culture cannot subsume Muslim fundamentalism if the fundamentalists can't afford to acquire the basic necessities of the technological age.

And the Saudis tried to *ban* picturephones!

Heh.

They forgot that smuggling routes are *two way* venues.

This is the socially liquidating factor of cheap technology against authoritarian regimes. Unfortunately it is just that: nothing else gets put in its place, but the ability of the regime to enforce thoughts and ideas gets circumvented. Now the question is: what will the end result of formless non-adhering to any social order *do* to rigid societies? That is the 4 billion person question.

ajacksonian,

I think what happens is we go back to old style tyranny.

You can think anything you want as long as you do what we say.

How can you say the oil supply has peaked. They keep finding more of it and better ways to get oil out of old fields.

Simon - After getting a deeper refreshment of the documents in and around the founding of the Nation, from those giving warnings about the overly limited democracy that was being proposed to the startling reading of the Federalists and some of their basic outlooks and what is necessary to do when government becomes inherently hostile to democracy. For those systems that have *no* current freedom nor any idea of how to form it, I do think you are right on the outcome leading to tyranny after a period of chaos.

The question is: how far will that chaos go?

We have multiple groups ready to exploit it with a goal to expanding it, both at home and abroad, and that structureless anarchy on the road to tyranny is worrying because so many now *want* that and rule by an Elite.

The warnings of 1787 and around the founding are clear and we have seen throughout history what happens when regimes collapse into chaos, time and again. The rule of revolutions is: how they organize and come to power is how they shall rule. From chaos we normally see strongman rule and tyranny, and at no time has 'spontaneous order' erupted from such times.

But what if other people in the world don't like this Kulturkampf? What if they don't want to choose between radical Islam and Britney Spears showing her crotch to the Internet?

And what does it mean to have cellphones and cable and denim jeans? Russia and China have those in spade, and neither their governments nor their peoples truly desire Jeffersonian democracy or to "be like" Americans in some meaningful way.

I think you underestimate the values of Islam, of traditional Chinese civilization, the indigenous cultures of the world. You overestimate how superficial the embrace of American culture is -- how being modern doesn't necessarily mean you are Western.

In short, you don't appreciate the Classical Values of other peoples. This is not to our credit, or our benefit.

DU

The Mechanical Eye,

Blue Jeans defeated the Soviet Union.

Yet it was not about blue jeans. It was about the right to be yourself and not have to become the New Soviet Man/Woman.

The same is true of this pornography story. It is far from the whole truth and yet in a way emblimatic. It is about your right to not have to live up to any particular ideal.

The Soviets were vulnerable to material goods and jazz. For our Islamic friends it is sex and hip-hop. Plus Nike. Aphrodite and Nike. What a pair.

http://dieoff.org/page224.htm will explain about peak oil. Basically, per capita less oil has been produced since the year 1979. Since the world's population continues to rise fairly steeply, less oil is available for individual consumption.

Take the Burgan oilfield in Kuwait for an example. Pre-2005 it was maintaining an output of 2 mbpd (million barrels per day). Now it's down to 1.7 mbpd, DESPITE the best efforts of modern technology to prevent the decline. No one can tell how fast it will continue to go downhill. That's one of the most productive fields in the world, and it's lost 15% of its daily capacity.

Iraq's oil production remains below pre-war levels as insurgent attacks continue to damage refineries, pipelines, and port facilities. Iran's oil industry is burdened by old technology and their profits are invested in supporting organizations like Hezbollah instead of maintaining the crucial infrastructure required to continue output. Their current production of 4 million barrels a day is 50% less than than the 6 mbpd they reached in the 1970s.

Split all the hairs you want, but it comes down to this: there is less oil per capita and much oil that could be available is unavailable for production because of political reasons. Why do you think President Bush is so gung-ho to bring Iran to task? Nuclear might be a concern, yes, but the restoration of oil capacity is an equally crucial problem. Let's face it: except for our nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, the U.S. military can't do a thing without oil. Since even carrier jets need fuel, even that aspect is limited. Military forces on deployment are using up far more oil resources than just sitting around U.S. bases worldwide, further putting pressure on the market as refineries in the American South are recovering after Katrina (to cite just one example of non-political outcomes affecting oil supply).

More oil being produced does not necessarily mean more oil is available for use. As use rises based on political concerns and economic infrastructure worldwide continues to demand more energy sources, the supply will continue to become more costly to obtain. Better start putting solar panels on your roof, and wind turbines in the back yard.

Solar cells and wind turbines will not affect oil consumption materially.

Supply and demand meet at a price.

In the oil business there are long lags.in time higher prices will call forth more supplies.

If you can tolerate the lags. If you can't? I have nothing to offer.

Color me with Mechanical Eye.

The Soviet Union fell apart because of a weak leader (Gorby) coupled with Saudi efforts to deliberately drive oil prices low to hurt the ability of the Soviets to pay their troops and their surrogates in Eastern Europe. Absent those two factors it would still be lumbering along, zombie like.

And you are missing the obvious (and so does Dr. Sanity):

Muslim men will continue jihad. Because Islam hoards women (polygamy insures a few men "win" and all others "lose"). Der Spiegel reports Eastern German women move west to seek wealthier and higher status mates, while East German men are stuck there (Westerners don't want any more male competition). Thus they turn to neo-Nazi groups.

Jihad is not going to go away any time soon. Muslim men's use of pornography is horribly disturbing, because men in a relationship with children don't use that much. Men with families and children don't go on Jihad much. The promised 72 virgins have no appeal against their own wives and pleasures of family life. Men with no hope ever of wives and families except psychic mutilation -- destroying every part of themselves to become "Western" and having tremendous brainpower and willpower to succeed in the Knowledge economy plus of course good luck -- will of course find jihad quite welcome. The amount of Muslim men who can mutilate themselves psychically and realistically achieve success to attract a western woman is quite small. No more than a handful in the entire Muslim world.

So Jihad and the appetite for Jihad will not go away, it will only increase. The use of cellphone porno videos is only the leading indicator of how bad things are.

Muslim societies are inherently unstable because of polygamy, now they are focused on an external enemy. Us. This will not go away until terrible things happen.

Simon, you're forgetting that higher prices also make the energy market more competitive for alternative energy sources. The problem has always been that industry (and in particular car manufacturers) have fought to prevent energy diversification. Regardless of their agenda, oil is indeed a finite resource. When oil becomes too expensive to pump in some parts of the world (Denmark's a great example) new energy will be obtained from alternative sources. However, if American industry continues to block the introduction of new, more efficient technologies, the transition will be far more abrupt and painful when petroleum is finally exhausted. The sudden transition will also focus the shock on oil production economies and the resulting economic backlash will magnify the current unemployment rates I've already listed above in my first posting. Delaying the shift away from oil only undermines a necessary economic shift if many Middle Eastern nations are going to co-exist peaceably with the West over the next 200 years.

Aaron,

We are not going to wake up one year and discover we are out of oil.

Oil shales can be brought on line for about $10 to $15 a bbl. There is lots of that stuff around. Surface mining will work.

I'm all for alternatives when they are cost competitive on a $ per BTU basis. Alcohol is not there yet.

Once again, you're missing my main point: oil shale and sands are not located in major oil producing regions currently. Shale is largely in the US and sands in Canada. I'm talking about the social implications of an economic collapse IN THE MIDDLE EAST. We may still have our oil production, all well and good, but when their unemployment rate kicks off they're going to be furious regardless of OUR economic security. Unless you have alternate employment for this fast-growing, young population???

Aaron,

I agree. Due to Koranic education they are not fit for productive work.

BTW we are already feeling the effects of economic collapse in the ME. Saudi per capita income is down by around a factor of four from 30 or 50 years ago.

I'm all for accelerating the trend. A fast fire vs a slow burn. Let them starve if they don't want to play nice.

Or as a commenter posted elsewhere on the topic: let them beat themselves. Har.

Their culture is dying. I propose doing what any good military operation finishes with - pursuit. Or as I prefer it: kick them while they are down.

Military occupation just gives the extremists exactly what they want, Simon. Why do you think each new "terror plot" in the US post-9/11 gets nabbed in the planning stages? Not all the credit belongs to Homeland Security. The domestic Muslim community is by and large eager to maintain good relations with wider American society and won't tolerate religious extremists who rock the boat in all the wrong ways. HOWEVER, now people in Iraq and Afghanistan can lay blame for their situation on the US instead of Saddam Hussein and the Taliban. (We deserve a good deal of it, anyway, since we declared food and medicine as embargoed items, prohibiting Iraq from importing them since 1991.) Bottom line: we can win on our own turf because everyone has a more equal standing on American soil. I'm not going to stand up and thump my chest saying everyone's created equal here because that just isn't the case. Despite this problem, however, immigrants assimilate into American society much more effectively than in France, for example, where xenophobia and racial prejudice are at all time highs. We can (and should) hold the line here in the United States by strengthening ties with our own peaceful community of hardworking Muslim-Americans.

At the same time, however, our military campaigns will never work. Afghanistan was working until we siphoned off thousands of troops for a pointless invasion of Iraq. That gave the Taliban time to regroup, and with the massive increase in poppy cultivation they'll have enough funding from the American addict population to fight until the end of time. America's commitment to Karzai will run out long before then. Iraq's a far worse case. Yes, Saddam was a dictator and bloodthirsty maniac; however, he was also an avowed secularist who feared radical Sunnis and Shiites alike as a threat to his rule. Bush's actions undermined a relatively stable government and allowed al-Qaida and related groups to radicalize the Sunni troops fired from the army by Paul Bremer while Iran helped the Shiite militias. I want it noted that both sides already had great excuses to hate the US: the Sunnis were allied with the US during the Iran-Iraq War until Saddam turned against Kuwait shortly afterward; we deliberately deceived Saddam's government about our battle strategy and intentions. Here's a FACT for you to chew on: after we repeatedly said we would not enter Iraqi soil the coalition troops launched a massive attack across the Saudi Arabian desert into Iraq (NOT Kuwait) before turning south-east to cut off Saddam's forces in Kuwait. The poor Shiites and Kurds thought the US suddenly decided for regime change (after all, the US press and military both disavowed any foray into Iraqi soil up to the very date of invasion) and both rose in revolt. Not only did the US abandon these spontaneous uprisings to wither on the vine, but we also signed a cease-fire with Saddam that explicitly excluded helicopters from the no-fly zones established in the north and south. While US troops withdrew to celebrate the liberation of Kuwait, Saddam launched all-out attacks to pacify those regions at the cost of thousands of lives from his helicopter gunships. Face it: the US systematically alienated every element of Iraqi society back in 1991, and they all well remember our sins 16 years ago. Sunni, Shiite and Kurd all have excellent reasons to hate the US government and to express that anger by inflicting casualties on our highly vulnerable troops who have been forced into the role of hostile occupation forces. If France couldn't maintain control of Algeria in the 1960s with 800,000 men and the loyalty of some of a population of only 8 million, what in blazes kind of chance do you think 160,000 American soldiers stand in Iraq (24 million citizens strong) where they're all marked targets by SEVERAL armed groups that all hate them? You can argue superior technology all you want, but guerilla forces are never going to engage in conventional battles where that technology can tilt the balance decisively. Why do you think are aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf are trying to intimidate Iran? They can't do a bloody thing to help in Iraq, that's why. They are trying to intimidate another conventional military power (which overlooks the fact that Iran has a long history of non-traditional combat strategies). Another brilliant Bush plan.

I cannot fathom why you see armed confrontation with Islamic fundamentalists on their own turf as a good thing. Ho Chi Minh said it best: "We will move through the people like fish through the sea." The US strategy then was to try to drain the sea of popular support, but they only succeeded in alienating every element of the population. Don't worry, we can't lose any ethnic or religious group in Iraq because they all have excellent reasons to hate us already. Your gung-ho attitude is just like that of our dear beloved President. Wash your hands all you want, Simon. They will remain stained with the blood of tens of thousands of innocent casualties who wanted nothing to do with Saddam or Bush, and with thousands of American troops who only wanted to serve and protect this nation which so blindly sent them to fight an impossible battle. If people like you had looked at the history of America's involvement with Iraq and acknowledged that victory was impossible before March 2003, many lives could have been saved. I don't know how you sleep at night.

Aaron makes a few points:

Military occupation just gives the extremists exactly what they want

Maybe. It appears to be giving us what we want. National unity in Iraq against the terrorists.

As to fish in the sea. Evidently the Iraqi people are not as fond of sharks as you are.

Before getting sidetracked into the Iraq War, Aaron and M. Simon seemed to agree that Middle Eastern oil had peaked and that was worse for them than it was for us.

Declining ME oil production is a HUGE boon for the United States - it allows us to simply quarantine the area. We cannot now because we need the oil and overly sensitive nitwits will complain about profiling.

As production declines, the need of their oil will decline (and it's an open market, once they are no longer THE supplier, we can try buying from elsewhere and letting other people deal with the ME).

As their society implodes, as both Aaron and M. Simon seem to think it will, with various acts of terrorism against the West, the nitwits will see reason in denying all visas from any ME country. It will be seen as a reasonable compromise between "can't we all just get along" and the "bomb them back to the stone-age" groups.

All better. Just let that part of the world go to hell in a hand-basket. Nation building is doomed - but we had no real choice but to try. We let China stew in its own juices for 50 years and that is coming along nicely (buying our debt, sending us cheap trinkets, and committing demographic suicide). Let's repeat the experiment.

Mr Sizer,

I like your attitude.

Sigh. If only the Arabs would be smart and keep a low profile. Encourage everyone to gorge themselves on cheap oil - while using the piles of money acquired to buy up property and resources, held by citizens of the countries where the assets are located. Then, when oil runs out - be set to exploit whatever technology that replaces that energy source. But NO! They have to cut off their nose to spite their face. LIE to themselves and then blame everyone else - the USA, the Jews, etc. on why they were suckered - by their own lies.