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April 22, 2007
We Are Doomed - Again
Justin has a new "we are doomed" article up on global warming. I thought a little data on the subject might be in order. There has historically been much more CO2 in our atmosphere than exists today. For example, during the Jurassic Period (200 mya), average CO2 concentrations were about 1800 ppm or about 4.7 times higher than today. The highest concentrations of CO2 during all of the Paleozoic Era occurred during the Cambrian Period, nearly 7000 ppm -- about 18 times higher than today.From: Climate and the Carboniferous Period where a larger version of the graph is also available. H/T A Jacksonian posted by Simon on 04.22.07 at 04:15 PM
Comments
So? Fine, we had more CO2 back in the (very) old days. We're living now, and we are raising CO2 levels. And before you point out that the typical volcanic eruption produces more carbon dioxide than we do, keep in mind that it's cumulative. What matters in this situation is not the amount produced by any individual source, but the amount produced overall. Alan Kellogg · April 23, 2007 05:57 AM Earth climate is varied by many factors and the #1 thing that carbon dioxide levels over time show, into far history, is that they are *not* a driver of a planet with an active biosphere. Most of the science on 'greenhouse gases' was done with respect to two other planets: Mars and Venus. The former has had problems retaining an atmosphere and one could not breath on its surface,while the other has sulfur that has volatilized into its atmosphere which permanently enshrouds the planet and gives rise to sulfuric acid in the atmosphere not allowing water to form out as droplets due to chemistry and heat. That is where 'greenhouse gases' are cited as forming a 'greenhouse' and the lack of same on Mars for letting it be so cold. Carbon dioxide, methane and water vapor have all been higher *simultaneously* in greater magnitudes during the Carboniferous than at any other period in Earth's history, and makes today low levels of *each* to be minor in comparison. The real drivers on Earth's climate have very little to do with the atmosphere, per se, and much to do with plate tectonics and large, vast inland seas which are the *norm* for low plate activity time periods. I have restated that so many times that it required a post of its own. Because climatologists do *not* try to model the entire history of the Earth they are *missing* some major factors. Like where the actual continents *are* at any given time... and having one stuck at either pole is damned *rare* and is a huge radiator for the planet where heat *escapes*. Not having 1 km oceans over much of the continents is also *rare*. High levels of vulcanism is also *rare*. Guess what? They are all inter-related. Those driving factors swamp anything in the atmosphere by orders of magnitude as the entire heat retension system of the planet is based on those things. Just examine the multiple interglacial periods since the KT extinction via boloid impact and those will show a clear and unmistakable record of sudden, drastic temperature swings within a low belt of temps. Then the entire planet swings into a deep freeze for a few tens of thousands of years. Sometimes longer. Interglacial periods are metastable in regard to temps and, until the entire set of oceans we have today can be made as warm as the Carribean up to a few kms deep, there will be no changing that. See that big continent on the south pole? Heat escapes into space there. And one must look at the entire set of ice sheets there and realize that the mass of ice on it is getting *thicker*. Until the plates can be slowed and water covering all the way up to the Rockies to give us new coastline, and then those seas given a few hundred thousand years to warm up, there is very little that atmospheric pollution will do to the overall global temps. And, as Isaac Asimov pointed out in the '70s - if the Arctic Ice Cap melted it would *lower* sea levels as that water would be more dense than ice, which floats on water. We can burn every single speck of fossil fuel and *still* not reach those lovely Carboniferous highs as a lot of that carbon is locked up in calcium carbonate and magnesium/calcium carbonate: limestone and dolostone. If you see the great and vast chalk cliffs of dover, those are made up of shells... made of calcium carbonate. That is the planetary solution for 'carbon sequestration' - turn it into rock. It is a very good idea to take a look at the *amount* of limestone and dolostone around the planet and realize just how much carbon is in them... kinda tells you that there is a mechanism for this sort of thing at the carbon compensation depth. That may just point to a bit of work on changes in the CCD changing climate and not climate changing the CCD. Anyone gots a 800 million year model for that and understands how it changes? Because when that changes, sudden precepitation of carbon and deposition of same suddenly make a 'draw down' cycle possible in which more is absorbed from the atmosphere and deposited as *rock*. But we don't know what causes *that*, but seems to be something to do with oceanic depth... which heads right back to, yes, plate tectonics. Almost like there was a link, there, or something. Time to head out and gather more data! Call me back in a few thousand years when that is all worked out and some *real* data is available... ajacksonian · April 23, 2007 09:44 AM GW is a religion that was founded by Al Gore to pave the way for a world-wide carbon tax. Industrialized nations would pay a tax to the UN. Check out their web site: Ray Yates · April 24, 2007 09:57 AM Post a comment
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Wow, you mean Bush and the Rechimplicans were polluting the planet that long ago?
I guess the evidence speaks for itself.